TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>In 4Q20, Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, but essentially hasn’t moved since September as it has been “growing” into its valuation after a meteoric move in 1H20. In the past year, Amazon has spent an incremental $11.5B on COVID related costs (~10% of 2020 opex), increased the square footage of its logistics network’s square footage by 50%  and also added ~650,000 (!!!) employees, doubling its employee base in what also turns out to be the largest mobilization of workers in the US since World War II. And yet…since September 2, the stock is down 4% from its alltime high. We think Amazon is worth closer to $6,000 then $3,000 and think that it has potentially the same type of setup as last year when we began writing (on Smartkarma) about Amazon. In years after the company has huge capacity expansions, it tends to outperform as the operating leverage of capacity utilization shines through.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

In 4Q20, Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, but essentially hasn’t moved since September as it has been “growing” into its valuation after a meteoric move in 1H20. In the past year, Amazon has spent an incremental $11.5B on COVID related costs (~10% of 2020 opex), increased the square footage of its logistics network’s square footage by 50%  and also added ~650,000 (!!!) employees, doubling its employee base in what also turns out to be the largest mobilization of workers in the US since World War II. And yet…since September 2, the stock is down 4% from its alltime high. We think Amazon is worth closer to $6,000 then $3,000 and think that it has potentially the same type of setup as last year when we began writing (on Smartkarma) about Amazon. In years after the company has huge capacity expansions, it tends to outperform as the operating leverage of capacity utilization shines through.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

<ul>
<li>Founder-led Technology One has the capability to earn superior returns on capital while expanding predictably and profitably alongside a massive runaway, in our opinion.</li>
<li>Although the share seems a bit elevated at the moment, we feel that the name should be worth following among long-term, quality-focused investors who can wait patiently.</li>
</ul>


Founder-led Technology One has the capability to earn superior returns on capital while expanding predictably and profitably alongside a massive runaway, in our opinion.
Although the share seems a bit elevated at the moment, we feel that the name should be worth following among long-term, quality-focused investors who can wait patiently.


Technology One: Our Top SaaS Pick From APAC

<p>Snowflake had a good quarter…it was a bit above expectations that were well telegraphed from the IPO, and their guidance was only inline (though likely conservative)….so what does one do with a stock that is the single richest multiple in the stock market (100x+ sales)? Buy a lot more? We can’t pretend to understand why this stock was up 16% today. And we can’t pretend to understand why the market values its revenues at 3x!!! the rest of high valuation software. We don’t short on valuation alone. But we certainly couldn’t justify owning Snowflake.</p><p><strong> </strong></p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Snowflake had a good quarter…it was a bit above expectations that were well telegraphed from the IPO, and their guidance was only inline (though likely conservative)….so what does one do with a stock that is the single richest multiple in the stock market (100x+ sales)? Buy a lot more? We can’t pretend to understand why this stock was up 16% today. And we can’t pretend to understand why the market values its revenues at 3x!!! the rest of high valuation software. We don’t short on valuation alone. But we certainly couldn’t justify owning Snowflake. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Snowflake 3Q21: Our Revenues Are Worth More Than Your Revenues

Plover Bay Technologies / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Plover Bay appears cheaply valued by Mr. Market in light of the highly promising growth prospect of the SD-WAN space;</li>
<li>We find it worthwhile to dive deeper into the business and look for any value play (or value trap) from a long-term investing perspective.</li>
</ul>


Plover Bay appears cheaply valued by Mr. Market in light of the highly promising growth prospect of the SD-WAN space;
We find it worthwhile to dive deeper into the business and look for any value play (or value trap) from a long-term investing perspective.


Plover Bay: A Value Play Or A Value Trap?

<p>When we first began writing about Slack last summer, an acquisition was always on the radar, even as we were initially positive....for the same reason we flipped negative. Slack is a product, not a company, and is best housed inside a larger enterprise IT company...Salesforce.com is certainly it. Price matters though...and Slack is now trading ~22x forward EV/Sales after the 20% rip....CRM 10x. Are we sure Marc Benioff is willing to dilute his stock THAT much? slack = 10% of CRM EV.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

When we first began writing about Slack last summer, an acquisition was always on the radar, even as we were initially positive....for the same reason we flipped negative. Slack is a product, not a company, and is best housed inside a larger enterprise IT company...Salesforce.com is certainly it. Price matters though...and Slack is now trading ~22x forward EV/Sales after the 20% rip....CRM 10x. Are we sure Marc Benioff is willing to dilute his stock THAT much? slack = 10% of CRM EV.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

United States

Oracle Corporation supplies software for enterprise information management. The Company offers databases and relational servers, application development and decision support tools, and enterprise business applications. Oracle's software runs on network computers, personal digital assistants, set-top devices, PCs, workstations, minicomputers, mainframes, and massively parallel computers.

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Oracle Corp (ORCL US)

Amazon 4Q20: The GOAT Departs

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos is stepping down. We doubt he steps away. 2021 is a unique setup. Its the first time Amazon was up during a big capacity...

Aaron Gabin

Technology One: Our Top SaaS Pick From APAC

Although the share seems a bit elevated at the moment, we feel that Technology One should be worth following among long-term, quality-focused...

Steven Chen

Snowflake 3Q21: Our Revenues Are Worth More Than Your Revenues

Snowflake's first public quarter was a raging success according to the stock market, who boosted a 100x P/S company by 16% just for meeting...

Aaron Gabin

Plover Bay: A Value Play Or A Value Trap?

Plover Bay appears cheaply valued at the backdrop of the highly promising SD-WAN space, and we find it worthwhile to dive deeper into the business...

Steven Chen

Slack + Salesforce.com: Initial Thoughts

We take a look at the potential pluses and minuses of Salesforce.com's proposed acquisition of Slack. The proposed deal is expensive and makes more...

Aaron Gabin

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