High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Oracle is on a mission to rival the Big Three cloud providers and its cloud ambitions are part of a theme that will determine GDP growth in the US and globally as a whole.</li><li>They are guiding for a 10x revenue increase in cloud computing in just four years which would transform Oracle Cloud from a nobody with 3% market share to a leading player with a business larger than AWS is today.</li><li>Most importantly, this guidance is based on contracted revenue, i.e. revenue that their customers (most importantly OpenAI) basically only can get out by declaring bankruptcy.</li></ul>

Oracle is on a mission to rival the Big Three cloud providers and its cloud ambitions are part of a theme that will determine GDP growth in the US and globally as a whole.They are guiding for a 10x revenue increase in cloud computing in just four years which would transform Oracle Cloud from a nobody with 3% market share to a leading player with a business larger than AWS is today.Most importantly, this guidance is based on contracted revenue, i.e. revenue that their customers (most importantly OpenAI) basically only can get out by declaring bankruptcy.

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Taiwan's economic minister confirmed the ongoing investigation into the TSMC leak, which may affect Japan relations.</li><li>Apple's new vapor chamber design is expected to enable the creation of ultra-thin iPhones and wearables in the market.</li><li>The wafer foundry industry in Taiwan is anticipated to see significant growth by Q3 2025, driven by advancements in technology.</li></ul>

Taiwan's economic minister confirmed the ongoing investigation into the TSMC leak, which may affect Japan relations.Apple's new vapor chamber design is expected to enable the creation of ultra-thin iPhones and wearables in the market.The wafer foundry industry in Taiwan is anticipated to see significant growth by Q3 2025, driven by advancements in technology.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Sep-2025): TSMC leak probe will continue amid Japan

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

<ul><li>This addiction to competing even for the sake of it has served Larry Ellison, the Co-founder of Oracle, exceedingly well in life.</li><li>Ellison, along with Bob Miner and Ed Oates, started Oracle with just $2,000 in 1977; Larry contributed $1,200.</li><li>They never raised money from venture capital and Ellison was largely allergic to raise equity. </li></ul>

This addiction to competing even for the sake of it has served Larry Ellison, the Co-founder of Oracle, exceedingly well in life.Ellison, along with Bob Miner and Ed Oates, started Oracle with just $2,000 in 1977; Larry contributed $1,200.They never raised money from venture capital and Ellison was largely allergic to raise equity. 

Oracle: Ellison's Voyage to Software and Beyond

<ul><li>Intel's EUR10 billion semiconductor plant in Germany faces delays due to budget battles over chips and batteries, impacting the nation's technology sector and economic growth.</li><li>Taiwan's luxury car market growth reflects its prosperous economy, while the country continues to prioritize a nuclear-free energy agenda despite increasing energy needs.</li><li>AI is revolutionizing nuclear energy production, enhancing efficiency and safety, leading to innovative developments in the industry and heightened global interest. StarLux Airlines is boosting Taiwan's role as a transit hub in Asia amidst evolving global dynamics.</li></ul>

Intel's EUR10 billion semiconductor plant in Germany faces delays due to budget battles over chips and batteries, impacting the nation's technology sector and economic growth.Taiwan's luxury car market growth reflects its prosperous economy, while the country continues to prioritize a nuclear-free energy agenda despite increasing energy needs.AI is revolutionizing nuclear energy production, enhancing efficiency and safety, leading to innovative developments in the industry and heightened global interest. StarLux Airlines is boosting Taiwan's role as a transit hub in Asia amidst evolving global dynamics.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Oct-2024): Intel's EUR10B plant stalls in Germany.

Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

<ul>
<li>Oracle's upside in the near term might appear limited, but there is potential for higher dividend growth going forward.</li>
<li>The debt level should be monitored closely by investors, but in my view does not present a major risk for Oracle's dividend.</li>
<li>The dividend yield remains low, but the debt level must be monitored by investors.</li>
</ul>


Oracle's upside in the near term might appear limited, but there is potential for higher dividend growth going forward.
The debt level should be monitored closely by investors, but in my view does not present a major risk for Oracle's dividend.
The dividend yield remains low, but the debt level must be monitored by investors.


United States

Oracle Corporation supplies software for enterprise information management. The Company offers databases and relational servers, application development and decision support tools, and enterprise business applications. Oracle's software runs on network computers, personal digital assistants, set-top devices, PCs, workstations, minicomputers, mainframes, and massively parallel computers.

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Oracle Corp (ORCL US)

What the Heck Is Going on with Oracle?

Oracle is on a mission to rival the Big Three cloud providers and its cloud ambitions are part of a theme that will determine GDP growth in the US...

Fallacy Alarm

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Sep-2025): TSMC leak probe will continue amid Japan

Taiwan's TSMC leak investigation continues amid Japan relations concerns, while Apple's vapor chamber design, AI growth, and Momo's revenue rise...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Oracle: Ellison's Voyage to Software and Beyond

Ellison, along with Bob Miner and Ed Oates, started Oracle with just $2,000 in 1977; Larry contributed $1,200. They never raised money from venture...

MBI Deep Dives

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Oct-2024): Intel's EUR10B plant stalls in Germany.

Intel's semiconductor plant in Germany faces delay due to chip and battery budget battle, Taiwan's luxury car market thrives, AI boosts nuclear...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Oracle As A Long-Term Dividend Play

The debt level should be monitored closely by investors, but in my view does not present a major risk for Oracle's dividend.

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

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