Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Orica posted a strong FY25 result and forecasts improving growth across all three business segments through FY26.</li><li> -Orica&rsquo;s FY25 result solid, slightly ahead of consensus -Specialty Chemicals and Digital Solutions now primary drivers -Around half of earnings stem from gold and copper sectors -Adds incremental $100m to recently completed $400m buyback program</li></ul>

Orica posted a strong FY25 result and forecasts improving growth across all three business segments through FY26. -Orica&rsquo;s FY25 result solid, slightly ahead of consensus -Specialty Chemicals and Digital Solutions now primary drivers -Around half of earnings stem from gold and copper sectors -Adds incremental $100m to recently completed $400m buyback program

Solid Momentum Drives Orica's FY26 Optimism

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 6 stocks in Australia that could be deleted from global passive portfolios later this month, though the probability of deletion varies across the stocks. </li>
<li>If deleted, passive trackers will need to sell between US$234m-330m in the stocks. Impact is high at between 7-23 days of ADV.</li>
<li>The potential deletions have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> over nearly every time period from 1 week to 3 months. Shorts have increased on all stocks recently.</li>
</ul>


There are 6 stocks in Australia that could be deleted from global passive portfolios later this month, though the probability of deletion varies across the stocks. 
If deleted, passive trackers will need to sell between US$234m-330m in the stocks. Impact is high at between 7-23 days of ADV.
The potential deletions have underperformed the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) over nearly every time period from 1 week to 3 months. Shorts have increased on all stocks recently.


Australia: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monadelphous-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:553:1" rel="noopener">Monadelphous (MND AU)</a> will be added to the S&amp;P ASX 200 Index on 16 December 2022.</li>
<li>This is not a surprise. It has been the lead contender for a December ADD slot since the day after the September rebalance was completed (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/s-p-asx-quiddity-leaderboard-dec-22-top-ranked-asx200-adds-look-interesting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>).</li>
<li>There is a fair bit of volume to buy, and there are pair trades to do.</li>
</ul>



Monadelphous (MND AU) will be added to the S&amp;P ASX 200 Index on 16 December 2022.
This is not a surprise. It has been the lead contender for a December ADD slot since the day after the September rebalance was completed (see here).
There is a fair bit of volume to buy, and there are pair trades to do.


Monadelphous (MND AU) Is The S&P ASX 200 ADD - There's a Trade Here

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Increasing US and Australian ties in the critical minerals space provide some opportunities</li>
<li>After the initial hype and capital raisings, better entry prices have arisen</li>
<li>The upside-downside ratio is  high and government support provides a backstop</li>
</ul>


Increasing US and Australian ties in the critical minerals space provide some opportunities
After the initial hype and capital raisings, better entry prices have arisen
The upside-downside ratio is  high and government support provides a backstop


A Basket of Strategic, Speculative Australian Mining Stocks

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>Four stock pairs have triggered new mean-reversion trade signals, with price ratios deviating more than two standard deviations from their one-year averages.</li>
<li>Two of the opportunities involve companies in the same industry and two pairs involve companies in different industries within the same sector.</li>
<li>Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, outlining opportunities and key risk considerations.</li>
</ul>


Four stock pairs have triggered new mean-reversion trade signals, with price ratios deviating more than two standard deviations from their one-year averages.
Two of the opportunities involve companies in the same industry and two pairs involve companies in different industries within the same sector.
Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, outlining opportunities and key risk considerations.


Four New Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities in Asia-Pac

Australia

Orica Limited is a diversified manufacturing company.  The Company produces industrial and specialty chemicals, polyethylene, surface coatings for vehicles, food and beverage flavoring and fragrances, packaging and appliances. The Company also supplies explosive and blasting services to the mining, quarrying and construction industries.

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Orica Ltd (ORI AU)

Solid Momentum Drives Orica's FY26 Optimism

Orica posted a strong FY25 result and forecasts improving growth across all three business segments through FY26. -Orica’s FY25 result solid,...

FNArena

Australia: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Six Aussie stocks could be sold from global passive portfolios in Feb. If deleted, passives will need to sell between US$234m-330m in the stocks....

Brian Freitas

Monadelphous (MND AU) Is The S&P ASX 200 ADD - There's a Trade Here

Mining services company Monadelphous (MND AU) is the S&P ASX 200 ADD, as expected. There should be 4.8mm shares to buy - 12+ days of ADV. There's a...

Travis Lundy

A Basket of Strategic, Speculative Australian Mining Stocks

One member of the basket $EMH is up >80% today as it has received confirmation that its Cinovec lithium project in the Czech Republic has been...

Rikki Malik

Four New Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities in Asia-Pac

Three Aussie and one Indian pair show mean-reversion pair trade signals in Financials, Industrials, and Materials. Ideal for quantitative traders...

Gaudenz Schneider

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