Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The worst performers in Topix in any given year almost always outperform the following year. This strategy works on steroids during market drawdowns such as the one we are in.</li>
<li>The year to March 26 was a great example. Topix was up 15% YoY, but last year's worst decile turned out an average gain of 46%!</li>
<li>If you want to do even better than the basket, focus on stocks where you think the long-term sustainable relative RoE is higher than the relative price to book ratio.</li>
</ul>


The worst performers in Topix in any given year almost always outperform the following year. This strategy works on steroids during market drawdowns such as the one we are in.
The year to March 26 was a great example. Topix was up 15% YoY, but last year's worst decile turned out an average gain of 46%!
If you want to do even better than the basket, focus on stocks where you think the long-term sustainable relative RoE is higher than the relative price to book ratio.


Juicing the Turnaround Strategy in War Time

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Lacklustre numbers for both Dell and HP show tapering demand for PC's.</li>
<li>Keisei Electric Rail snubbing Murakami with another 1% Oriental Land sale?</li>
<li>Nikon analysts meeting does little to clarify the intentions of EssilorLuxottic's 8.45% stake.</li>
</ul>


Lacklustre numbers for both Dell and HP show tapering demand for PC's.
Keisei Electric Rail snubbing Murakami with another 1% Oriental Land sale?
Nikon analysts meeting does little to clarify the intentions of EssilorLuxottic's 8.45% stake.


Japan Morning Connection: AI Edge Computing Is Failing to Drive PC Demand

<ul>
<li>Trump names including banks, energy and tech rally hard, while renewables are sold heavily</li>
<li>Underperformance by semi-capex plays with high China sales may be reflected in Japan SPE today</li>
<li>Global defense rallied on the spectre of higher spend requirements for EU countries</li>
</ul>


Trump names including banks, energy and tech rally hard, while renewables are sold heavily
Underperformance by semi-capex plays with high China sales may be reflected in Japan SPE today
Global defense rallied on the spectre of higher spend requirements for EU countries


Japan Morning Connection: Trump Names Rally in the Wake of Re-Election

<ul>
<li>Risk on sentiment takes hold ahead of key CPI print tomorrow; yen weakness will drive the NKY higher.</li>
<li>Big gains for Japanese department store duty-free sales over the Chinese Golden week holiday bodes well for the likes of Isetan Mitsukoshi.</li>
<li>Cat 5 Hurricane Milton making landfall should put further pressure on the JP non-life/P&amp;C plays Sompo, MS&amp;AD and Tokio Marine.</li>
</ul>


Risk on sentiment takes hold ahead of key CPI print tomorrow; yen weakness will drive the NKY higher.
Big gains for Japanese department store duty-free sales over the Chinese Golden week holiday bodes well for the likes of Isetan Mitsukoshi.
Cat 5 Hurricane Milton making landfall should put further pressure on the JP non-life/P&amp;C plays Sompo, MS&amp;AD and Tokio Marine.


Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On Sentiment and Yen Weakness to Drive the NKY Higher

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS:  US Equities rise for the first week in four; Jackson Hole: Powell leaves open possibility of further hikes/ECB's Largarde strikes hawkish tone for EU;  China's Economic Pain to Continue</li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.7% Premium vs Cash; USDJPY 146.4; BOJ's Ueda at Jackson Hole says Japan inflation below target; Kishida's Approval rating improves; Japan to double EV Charging Stations. </li>
<li>JAPAN X: Japan Post Bank's Trillion Yen Boost set to propel the Japan start up ecosystem to new highs - while creating a new revenue stream for the bank.  </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS:  US Equities rise for the first week in four; Jackson Hole: Powell leaves open possibility of further hikes/ECB's Largarde strikes hawkish tone for EU;  China's Economic Pain to Continue
JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.7% Premium vs Cash; USDJPY 146.4; BOJ's Ueda at Jackson Hole says Japan inflation below target; Kishida's Approval rating improves; Japan to double EV Charging Stations. 
JAPAN X: Japan Post Bank's Trillion Yen Boost set to propel the Japan start up ecosystem to new highs - while creating a new revenue stream for the bank.  


Ohayo Japan|US Equities Gain Post Powell's Speech; JAPAN X: JP Bank's $7bn Boost for Local Startups

Japan

ORIENTAL LAND CO., LTD. operates Tokyo Disney Resort.  The Company also operates restaurants within the complex and sells Disney merchandise.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Oriental Land (4661 JP)

Juicing the Turnaround Strategy in War Time

Worst Topix performers tend to outperform the following year, especially during market downturns. Focus on stocks with high RoE and low price to...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: AI Edge Computing Is Failing to Drive PC Demand

PC demand is slowing as Dell and HP report lacklustre numbers, Keisei Electric Rail sells more Oriental Land shares, and Nikon's meeting leaves...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Names Rally in the Wake of Re-Election

Trump names rally while renewables sold heavily. Underperformance by semi-capex with high China sales may reflect in Japan SPE. Global defense...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On Sentiment and Yen Weakness to Drive the NKY Higher

Risk on sentiment ahead of CPI print and yen weakness to drive up NKY, gains during Chinese Golden week bode well for Isetan Mutsukoshi, Cat 5...

Andrew Jackson

Ohayo Japan|US Equities Gain Post Powell's Speech; JAPAN X: JP Bank's $7bn Boost for Local Startups

US Market post first gain in 4 weeks; Fed/ECB heads strike hawkish tone at Jackson Hole; NKY Futures +0.7% Premium vs Cash; USDJPY 146.4; BOJ's...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Juicing the Turnaround Strategy in War Time

​Worst Topix performers tend to outperform the following year, especially during market downturns. Focus on stocks with high RoE and low price to...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: AI Edge Computing Is Failing to Drive PC Demand

​PC demand is slowing as Dell and HP report lacklustre numbers, Keisei Electric Rail sells more Oriental Land shares, and Nikon's meeting leaves...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Names Rally in the Wake of Re-Election

Trump names rally while renewables sold heavily. Underperformance by semi-capex with high China sales may reflect in Japan SPE. Global defense...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On Sentiment and Yen Weakness to Drive the NKY Higher

​Risk on sentiment ahead of CPI print and yen weakness to drive up NKY, gains during Chinese Golden week bode well for Isetan Mutsukoshi, Cat 5...

Andrew Jackson

Ohayo Japan|US Equities Gain Post Powell's Speech; JAPAN X: JP Bank's $7bn Boost for Local Startups

US Market post first gain in 4 weeks; Fed/ECB heads strike hawkish tone at Jackson Hole; NKY Futures +0.7% Premium vs Cash; USDJPY 146.4; BOJ's...

Mark Chadwick

Worst Topix performers tend to outperform the following year, especially during market downturns. Focus on stocks with high RoE and low price to...

PC demand is slowing as Dell and HP report lacklustre numbers, Keisei Electric Rail sells more Oriental Land shares, and Nikon's meeting leaves...

Risk on sentiment ahead of CPI print and yen weakness to drive up NKY, gains during Chinese Golden week bode well for Isetan Mutsukoshi, Cat 5...