Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 3QFY24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>'s revenue may fall short of the consensus estimate by approximately 3%, and its OP could be about 6% below the consensus.</li>
<li>Despite revising up its annual guidance in October 2023, the share price has not surpassed its previous highs since June of last year.</li>
<li>As such, a minor deviation from consensus, as we anticipate, has the potential to significantly impact price perfromance.</li>
</ul>


In 3QFY24, Oriental Land (4661 JP)'s revenue may fall short of the consensus estimate by approximately 3%, and its OP could be about 6% below the consensus.
Despite revising up its annual guidance in October 2023, the share price has not surpassed its previous highs since June of last year.
As such, a minor deviation from consensus, as we anticipate, has the potential to significantly impact price perfromance.


<ul>
<li>Google Search trends for Tokyo Disneyland and DisneySea in recent months point to potential vulnerabilities in Oriental Land's FQ3 performance.</li>
<li>Tokyo Disneyland's rising ticket prices have narrowed the cost gap with Shanghai and Hong Kong Disneyland, potentially leading to a loss of customers to its counterparts.</li>
<li>Should <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> shares fail to surpass its recent peak in January next year, we think shares could undergo a rather substantial correction.</li>
</ul>


Google Search trends for Tokyo Disneyland and DisneySea in recent months point to potential vulnerabilities in Oriental Land's FQ3 performance.
Tokyo Disneyland's rising ticket prices have narrowed the cost gap with Shanghai and Hong Kong Disneyland, potentially leading to a loss of customers to its counterparts.
Should Oriental Land (4661 JP) shares fail to surpass its recent peak in January next year, we think shares could undergo a rather substantial correction.


Oriental Land: Approaching the Tipping Point

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>Based in Hong Kong, Dream International is one of the largest toy manufacturers in the world. It specializes on plush stuffed toys and plastic figures. </li>
<li>Despite the global toys markets going into destocking cycle, the company has generated significant growth in operating profit in the past year driven by strong demand for plush stuffed toys.</li>
<li>If we assume a moderate 20% YoY increase in dividends in 2023, this would imply DPS of HKD 0.48 and this would suggest a dividend yield of 12.7% current prices. </li>
</ul>


Based in Hong Kong, Dream International is one of the largest toy manufacturers in the world. It specializes on plush stuffed toys and plastic figures. 
Despite the global toys markets going into destocking cycle, the company has generated significant growth in operating profit in the past year driven by strong demand for plush stuffed toys.
If we assume a moderate 20% YoY increase in dividends in 2023, this would imply DPS of HKD 0.48 and this would suggest a dividend yield of 12.7% current prices. 


Keisei Electric Railway Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s FQ2 earnings, released on October-31st, surpassed revenue and OP expectations, yet the company revised down its revenue and OP guidance by ¥8.8bn and ¥200m.</li>
<li>Despite this, the share price has surged over 10% in recent days, likely influenced by activist investor Palliser Capital's interest and a significant 30% increase in annual dividend guidance.</li>
<li>However, during earnings, the company remained silent about the activist investor's proposal to reduce its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> ownership below 15%.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s FQ2 earnings, released on October-31st, surpassed revenue and OP expectations, yet the company revised down its revenue and OP guidance by ¥8.8bn and ¥200m.
Despite this, the share price has surged over 10% in recent days, likely influenced by activist investor Palliser Capital's interest and a significant 30% increase in annual dividend guidance.
However, during earnings, the company remained silent about the activist investor's proposal to reduce its Oriental Land (4661 JP) ownership below 15%.


Keisei Electric: Results Unimpressive, Yet Investor Activism Appeal Remains

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Recent underperformance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.</li>
<li>Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> holding reflects a strategic urgency. </li>
</ul>


Recent underperformance of Newmont Mining (NEM US) vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". 

PCCW Ltd (8 HK) has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.
Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s Oriental Land (4661 JP) holding reflects a strategic urgency. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

Japan

ORIENTAL LAND CO., LTD. operates Tokyo Disney Resort.  The Company also operates restaurants within the complex and sells Disney merchandise.

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Oriental Land (4661 JP)

Oriental Land: Earnings Preview

Despite last quarter's raised guidance, Oriental Land's share price hasn't exceeded its peak from June 2023, hinting that even a minor miss this...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Oriental Land: Approaching the Tipping Point

Google Search trends suggest potential vulnerabilities in Oriental Land's Q3 performance. Surging ticket prices narrow the cost gap with Shanghai...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Asian Dividend Gems: Dream International

Based in Hong Kong, Dream International is one of the largest toy manufacturers in the world. It specializes on plush stuffed toys and plastic...

Douglas Kim

Keisei Electric: Results Unimpressive, Yet Investor Activism Appeal Remains

Keisei Electric Railway's earnings beat expectations but revised down guidance, yet the stock price rose due to activist investor interest and...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Oriental Land: Earnings Preview

Despite last quarter's raised guidance, Oriental Land's share price hasn't exceeded its peak from June 2023, hinting that even a minor miss this...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Oriental Land: Approaching the Tipping Point

​Google Search trends suggest potential vulnerabilities in Oriental Land's Q3 performance. Surging ticket prices narrow the cost gap with Shanghai...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Asian Dividend Gems: Dream International

Based in Hong Kong, Dream International is one of the largest toy manufacturers in the world. It specializes on plush stuffed toys and plastic...

Douglas Kim

Keisei Electric: Results Unimpressive, Yet Investor Activism Appeal Remains

​Keisei Electric Railway's earnings beat expectations but revised down guidance, yet the stock price rose due to activist investor interest and...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Google Search trends suggest potential vulnerabilities in Oriental Land's Q3 performance. Surging ticket prices narrow the cost gap with Shanghai...

Keisei Electric Railway's earnings beat expectations but revised down guidance, yet the stock price rose due to activist investor interest and...