Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Singapore Telecommunications / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.</li>
<li>We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level</li>
</ul>


Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.
We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).
While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level


MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<p>Some stock names that look interesting in Japan on weakness or above breakout points. Nintendo, Oriental Land, Toshiba, NTT and McDonalds. Some names are in play due to index deletion/inclusion.</p><p>The Nikkei is near 30,200 short term resistance and a bit overdone that supports rotation into stocks that have not run or have just cleared key resistance.</p><p>This webcast runs through buy levels and targets on this group of stocks.</p>

Some stock names that look interesting in Japan on weakness or above breakout points. Nintendo, Oriental Land, Toshiba, NTT and McDonalds. Some names are in play due to index deletion/inclusion.The Nikkei is near 30,200 short term resistance and a bit overdone that supports rotation into stocks that have not run or have just cleared key resistance.This webcast runs through buy levels and targets on this group of stocks.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<p>On Friday 11 June, the TSE published its final revisions to the Corporate Governance Code which had been undergoing review by the <em>Council of Experts Concerning the Follow-up of Japan’s Stewardship Code and Japan’s Corporate Governance Code</em> and subsequently comment for the past many months. The new Code went into effect as of 11 June. The first revision to the <em>Guidelines for Investor and Company Engagement</em> were published as well. </p><p>The new version of Japan's Corporate Governance Code is <a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/news/1020/b5b4pj0000046kxj-att/b5b4pj0000046l07.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> with the tracked change version <a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/news/1020/b5b4pj0000046kxj-att/b5b4pj0000046l0c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. This is the second revision of the Code (the first revision was in 2018).</p><p>The revisions to the JFSA Guidelines for Investor and Company Engagement are <a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/news/1020/b5b4pj0000046kxj-att/b5b4pj0000046l3e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. Tracked changes are <a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/news/1020/b5b4pj0000046kxj-att/b5b4pj0000046l50.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p><p>The major changes to the Code recommend enhancements to Board independence, diversity, Sustainability and ESG, and also recommend improvements to investor accessibility and voting and a small change to listed parent-listed subsidiary relationships which unfortunately will not do much to counter abuse by companies of listed sub minority shareholders. </p><p>Below is more discussion of the changes and what they mean.</p><p>But I remind investors, these changes are almost all box-ticking exercises. They will not improve governance for shareholders except at the margins. </p><p>Companies which "get" good governance are still rare. And those which don't get it seem to abuse shareholders on a regular basis. And for that, investors still need more cowbell.</p>

On Friday 11 June, the TSE published its final revisions to the Corporate Governance Code which had been undergoing review by the Council of Experts Concerning the Follow-up of Japan’s Stewardship Code and Japan’s Corporate Governance Code and subsequently comment for the past many months. The new Code went into effect as of 11 June. The first revision to the Guidelines for Investor and Company Engagement were published as well. The new version of Japan's Corporate Governance Code is here with the tracked change version here. This is the second revision of the Code (the first revision was in 2018).The revisions to the JFSA Guidelines for Investor and Company Engagement are here. Tracked changes are here.The major changes to the Code recommend enhancements to Board independence, diversity, Sustainability and ESG, and also recommend improvements to investor accessibility and voting and a small change to listed parent-listed subsidiary relationships which unfortunately will not do much to counter abuse by companies of listed sub minority shareholders. Below is more discussion of the changes and what they mean.But I remind investors, these changes are almost all box-ticking exercises. They will not improve governance for shareholders except at the margins. Companies which "get" good governance are still rare. And those which don't get it seem to abuse shareholders on a regular basis. And for that, investors still need more cowbell.

TSE Prime: Japan's Corporate Governance Code Finalized So Boxes Will Be Furiously Ticked

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST • </strong></p><p>Our best and worst mega-cap pair from Thursday's 135 results and 64 forecasts/revisions announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange (8697 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a>. Amongst large caps, our picks are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paltac-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20014:1" rel="noopener">Paltac (8283 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>. 69% of companies had improved Results Scores, and 68% of annual revisions scored positively.  Only 10% of companies posted quarterly losses.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/185/303/original/2021-01-29_05-38-04.png?1611866299" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="185303"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/185/304/original/2021-01-29_05-38-53.png?1611866346" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="185304"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/185/305/original/2021-01-29_05-39-46.png?1611866397" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="185305"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/185/306/original/2021-01-29_05-42-15.png?1611866547" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="185306"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">   Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST • Our best and worst mega-cap pair from Thursday's 135 results and 64 forecasts/revisions announcements is Japan Exchange (8697 JP) and Tokyo Electron (8035 JP). Amongst large caps, our picks are Paltac (8283 JP) and Fancl (4921 JP). 69% of companies had improved Results Scores, and 68% of annual revisions scored positively.  Only 10% of companies posted quarterly losses.   Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​​​​​​​​​28 JPX, TEL, Fancl...

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/304/original/2021-01-18_07-21-17.png?1611015356" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183304"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/305/original/2021-01-19_09-18-35.png?1611015525" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183305"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><p><strong>POLES APART</strong><strong>&amp; ECHOES OF 2000</strong>- As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold (Relative Price Score &lt;-2.0) and those that are OverBought (RPS &gt; 4.0) remains at extreme levels as does the spread in terms of market weight. 7.2% of listed companies are Oversold; while 2.2% are OverBought, but the latter account for 13.7% of market value; the former just 5.4%. The last time both pairs of metrics were at these levels was the 2000 technology bubble.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/321/original/2021-01-19_10-25-51.png?1611019564" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183321"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/323/original/2021-01-19_10-27-10.png?1611019660" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183323"></figure></section><p><strong>BLOW OUT</strong> - As was the case in 2000, the total number of Sectors either OverBought or Oversold is also at an extreme level having peaked at 13 in December. This number has been exceeded only twice in the last fifty years  - in December 1999 (16) and February 2000 (14).   </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/363/original/2021-01-19_12-45-46.png?1611027961" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183363"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/367/original/2021-01-19_13-09-06.png?1611029374" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183367"></figure></section><div><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific recommendations.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>THE JAPAN ANALYTICS RELATIVE PRICE SCORE</strong> -  The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,919 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.</p></div></div></div>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS •Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsPOLES APART&amp; ECHOES OF 2000- As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold (Relative Price Score &lt;-2.0) and those that are OverBought (RPS &gt; 4.0) remains at extreme levels as does the spread in terms of market weight. 7.2% of listed companies are Oversold; while 2.2% are OverBought, but the latter account for 13.7% of market value; the former just 5.4%. The last time both pairs of metrics were at these levels was the 2000 technology bubble.BLOW OUT - As was the case in 2000, the total number of Sectors either OverBought or Oversold is also at an extreme level having peaked at 13 in December. This number has been exceeded only twice in the last fifty years  - in December 1999 (16) and February 2000 (14).   In the DETAIL section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific recommendations.THE JAPAN ANALYTICS RELATIVE PRICE SCORE -  The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,919 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • January Relative Price Scores -  Actionable Mean Reversion Trades

Japan

ORIENTAL LAND CO., LTD. operates Tokyo Disney Resort.  The Company also operates restaurants within the complex and sells Disney merchandise.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Oriental Land (4661 JP)

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

We are testing the March lows in several global indexes, including the MSCI $ACWI, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and EM $EEM. While this is a logical spot for...

Vermilion Research

Japan Stocks of Interest

Some stock names that look interesting in Japan on weakness or above breakout points. Nintendo, Oriental Land, Toshiba, NTT and McDonalds. A...

Thomas Schroeder

TSE Prime: Japan's Corporate Governance Code Finalized So Boxes Will Be Furiously Ticked

The TSE on Friday announced the revisions to the Governance Code. This codifies the "governance thresholds" required to join TSE Prime next year....

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/28 JPX, TEL, Fancl...

69% of companies had improved Results Scores, and 68% of annual revisions scored positively. Only 10% of companies posted quarterly losses.

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • January Relative Price Scores - Actionable Mean Reversion Trades

As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold and those that are...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

We are testing the March lows in several global indexes, including the MSCI $ACWI, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and EM $EEM. While this is a logical spot for...

Vermilion Research

Japan Stocks of Interest

Some stock names that look interesting in Japan on weakness or above breakout points. Nintendo, Oriental Land, Toshiba, NTT and McDonalds. A...

Thomas Schroeder

TSE Prime: Japan's Corporate Governance Code Finalized So Boxes Will Be Furiously Ticked

The TSE on Friday announced the revisions to the Governance Code. This codifies the "governance thresholds" required to join TSE Prime next year....

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​​​​​​​​​28 JPX, TEL, Fancl...

69% of companies had improved Results Scores, and 68% of annual revisions scored positively. Only 10% of companies posted quarterly losses.

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • January Relative Price Scores - Actionable Mean Reversion Trades

As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold and those that are...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/28 JPX, TEL, Fancl...