Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 1Q 2023.</li>
<li>Of the 33 pair trades, 2/3 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past year and 1/3 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.</li>
<li>We highlight 33 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 1Q 2023.
Of the 33 pair trades, 2/3 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past year and 1/3 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.
We highlight 33 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Spreads Opportunities in 1Q 2023

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between Orion Holdings (001800 KS) (go long) and Orion Corp (271560 KS) (go short). </li>
<li>Orion Holdings has a dividend yield of 4.6% versus 0.7% for Orion Corp. For the value investors that seek higher dividends, Orion Holdings is more attractive versus Orion Corp. </li>
<li>We believe the price gap between these two stocks have widened too much in the past several months and this gap is likely to decrease again.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between Orion Holdings (001800 KS) (go long) and Orion Corp (271560 KS) (go short). 
Orion Holdings has a dividend yield of 4.6% versus 0.7% for Orion Corp. For the value investors that seek higher dividends, Orion Holdings is more attractive versus Orion Corp. 
We believe the price gap between these two stocks have widened too much in the past several months and this gap is likely to decrease again.


A Pair Trade Between Orion Holdings and Orion Corp

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergence of the major Korean holdcos and opcos amid market carnage.</li>
<li>In general, more holdcos/quasi-holdcos have been outperforming the opcos in the past year, as compared to the previous years as more investors seek value-oriented, deep NAV discount stocks.</li>
<li>We highlight 26 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergence of the major Korean holdcos and opcos amid market carnage.
In general, more holdcos/quasi-holdcos have been outperforming the opcos in the past year, as compared to the previous years as more investors seek value-oriented, deep NAV discount stocks.
We highlight 26 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Spreads Opportunities Amid Market Carnage

<ul>
<li>Despite unfavorable business environment such as global inflation, Orion was able to generate excellent progress in sales and profit growth in countries including China, Vietnam, and Russia in 2Q 2022.</li>
<li>Orion had sales of 263.2 billion won (up 19.6% YoY) and operating profit of 35.7 billion won (up 170.3% YoY) in China. </li>
<li>Due to a combination of attractive valuations and improving fundamentals along with restrictions of snacks imports from Taiwan to China, we continue to believe Orion's shares could outperform the market.</li>
</ul>


Despite unfavorable business environment such as global inflation, Orion was able to generate excellent progress in sales and profit growth in countries including China, Vietnam, and Russia in 2Q 2022.
Orion had sales of 263.2 billion won (up 19.6% YoY) and operating profit of 35.7 billion won (up 170.3% YoY) in China. 
Due to a combination of attractive valuations and improving fundamentals along with restrictions of snacks imports from Taiwan to China, we continue to believe Orion's shares could outperform the market.


Orion Corp - Record Results in 2Q 2022 Bolstered By Strong Sales in China, Russia, & Vietnam

South Korea

Orion Corp. manufactures and distributes snacks and beverages. The Company also engages in movie production and investments.

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Orion Corp (271560 KS)

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Spreads Opportunities in 1Q 2023

In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 1Q 2023. We highlight 33 pair trades that...

Douglas Kim

A Pair Trade Between Orion Holdings and Orion Corp

In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between Orion Holdings (001800 KS) (go long) and Orion Corp (271560 KS) (go short).

Douglas Kim

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Spreads Opportunities Amid Market Carnage

In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergence of the major Korean holdcos and opcos amid market carnage. We highlight 26 pair trades...

Douglas Kim

Orion Corp - Record Results in 2Q 2022 Bolstered By Strong Sales in China, Russia, & Vietnam

Despite unfavorable business environment such as global inflation, Orion was able to generate excellent progress in sales and profit growth in...

Douglas Kim

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