Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 39 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this past week: the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem (AKE AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livent-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27434:1" rel="noopener">Livent (LTHM US)</a>'s merger; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yitai-coal-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14904:1" rel="noopener">Yitai Coal (3948 HK)</a>'s H-share buyback; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arteria-networks-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27807:1" rel="noopener"> Networks Corp (4423 JP)</a>'s tender offer. </li>
<li>Key updates took place for<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-barbara-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3764:1" rel="noopener">St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 39 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this past week: the Allkem (AKE AU)/Livent (LTHM US)'s merger; Yitai Coal (3948 HK)'s H-share buyback;  Networks Corp (4423 JP)'s tender offer. 
Key updates took place forSt Barbara Ltd (SBM AU), AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK), and Toshiba Corp (6502 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Allkem/Livent, Yitai Coal, ARTERIA, St Barbara, AAG Energy

<ul>
<li>Aussie lithium miner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> has inked a $US10bn+ merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livent-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27434:1" rel="noopener">Livent (LTHM US)</a> to form the world's fifth largest lithium producer.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> tackled this "merger-of-equals" and the index implications in <a href="https://skr.ma/kwkmN" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Of Lithium Equals Has Index Surprises</a>. </li>
<li>The spoils of ongoing lithium demand for electric vehicle batteries will ostensibly go to the prevalent, low-cost producer. Yet Livent shareholders may question the lack of premium in the transaction. </li>
</ul>


Aussie lithium miner Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) has inked a $US10bn+ merger with Livent (LTHM US) to form the world's fifth largest lithium producer.

Travis Lundy tackled this "merger-of-equals" and the index implications in Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Of Lithium Equals Has Index Surprises. 
The spoils of ongoing lithium demand for electric vehicle batteries will ostensibly go to the prevalent, low-cost producer. Yet Livent shareholders may question the lack of premium in the transaction. 


Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. </li>
<li>Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.</li>
<li>But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. </li>
</ul>



Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. 
Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.
But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. 


Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> shareholders have overwhelmingly approved the dual-track bid from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)</a> and Hancock. The scheme offer is A$3.70 per share.</li>
<li>The shares fell 7%, seemingly due to concerns about FIRB approval sparked by FIRB’s request for an extension on 3 April and today’s <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/chinese-miners-in-2-5b-payday-from-australian-lithium-holdings-20240404-p5fhix" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR article</a> on China’s Australian lithium holdings. </li>
<li>FIRB approval should be forthcoming due to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianqi-lithium-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27789:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)</a> small indirect interest in Andover, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30603:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Power International (LPI AU)</a> precedent, and SQM and Tianqi’s strained relationship. </li>
</ul>



Azure Minerals (AZS AU) shareholders have overwhelmingly approved the dual-track bid from Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US) and Hancock. The scheme offer is A$3.70 per share.
The shares fell 7%, seemingly due to concerns about FIRB approval sparked by FIRB’s request for an extension on 3 April and today’s AFR article on China’s Australian lithium holdings. 
FIRB approval should be forthcoming due to Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) small indirect interest in Andover, Lithium Power International (LPI AU) precedent, and SQM and Tianqi’s strained relationship. 


Azure Minerals (AZS AU): FIRB Approval Concerns Are Overdone

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)</a>/Hancock’s scheme and takeover offer fair and reasonable as it is above its A$2.03-2.93 valuation range. </li>
<li>The scheme is conditional on FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming as Azure’s key asset (Andover) will be majority-owned by Australian entities.</li>
<li>The scheme vote will get up due to irrevocables and retail support. At the last close and for the 18 April payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.1%/29.2%.</li>
</ul>


The Azure Minerals (AZS AU) IE considers Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)/Hancock’s scheme and takeover offer fair and reasonable as it is above its A$2.03-2.93 valuation range. 
The scheme is conditional on FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming as Azure’s key asset (Andover) will be majority-owned by Australian entities.
The scheme vote will get up due to irrevocables and retail support. At the last close and for the 18 April payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.1%/29.2%.


Azure Minerals (AZS AU): Scheme Vote on 8 April

Australia

Allkem Limited operates as a specialty lithium chemicals company. The Company's portfolio includes lithium brine and borax operations in Argentina, a hard-rock lithium operation in Australia and a lithium hydroxide conversion facility in Japan.

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Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Allkem/Livent, Yitai Coal, ARTERIA, St Barbara, AAG Energy

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Allkem/Livent: Enlarged Charging Unit

As Travis pointed out, a cross-border arb will be "difficult" because lithium is a bouncy theme and one could get legged pretty easily. To this,...

David Blennerhassett

Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

Flows for Livent-become-Arcadium Lithium over the next 3 days are relatively prodigious. This comes from upweights in US indices not matched by...

Travis Lundy

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): FIRB Approval Concerns Are Overdone

FIRB approval should be forthcoming due to Tianqi's small indirect interest in Andover, Lithium Power precedent, and SQM and Tianqi’s strained...

Arun George

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): Scheme Vote on 8 April

The scheme vote will get up due to irrevocables and retail support. At the last close and for the 18 April payment, the gross/annualised spread was...

Arun George

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Allkem/Livent, Yitai Coal, ARTERIA, St Barbara, AAG Energy

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Allkem/​Livent: Enlarged Charging Unit

As Travis pointed out, a cross-border arb will be "difficult" because lithium is a bouncy theme and one could get legged pretty easily. To this,...

David Blennerhassett

Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

Flows for Livent-become-Arcadium Lithium over the next 3 days are relatively prodigious. This comes from upweights in US indices not matched by...

Travis Lundy

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): FIRB Approval Concerns Are Overdone

FIRB approval should be forthcoming due to Tianqi's small indirect interest in Andover, Lithium Power precedent, and SQM and Tianqi’s strained...

Arun George

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): Scheme Vote on 8 April

The scheme vote will get up due to irrevocables and retail support. At the last close and for the 18 April payment, the gross/annualised spread was...

Arun George

Allkem/Livent: Enlarged Charging Unit