Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 21st January 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wh-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13200:1" rel="noopener">WH Group (288 HK)</a>, the world's largest pork producer, <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0121/2025012100994.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> Smithfield had made a public filing of the "Preliminary Prospectus" with the SEC.</li>
<li>A US$23-US$27/share indicative price range backed out a possible market cap for Smithfield of US$9.0bn-US$10.6bn, at the high end of my estimate, and more than twice its 2013 privatisation value. </li>
<li>
Reportedly,  WHG are now guiding that Smithfield is likely to be priced at $20/share. Expect WHG to sell off here.</li>
</ul>


On the 21st January 2025, WH Group (288 HK), the world's largest pork producer, announced Smithfield had made a public filing of the "Preliminary Prospectus" with the SEC.
A US$23-US$27/share indicative price range backed out a possible market cap for Smithfield of US$9.0bn-US$10.6bn, at the high end of my estimate, and more than twice its 2013 privatisation value. 

Reportedly,  WHG are now guiding that Smithfield is likely to be priced at $20/share. Expect WHG to sell off here.


WH Group (288 HK) Is Stretched As Smithfield Mulls IPO Price Reduction

<ul>
<li>Back on the 5th December, Gordan Tang (&amp; his wife Celine) acquired a 2.14% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suntec-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:151:1" rel="noopener">Suntec REIT (SUN SP)</a>, lifting their stake to 31.45% from 29.31%, triggering a MGO.</li>
<li>This had all the hallmarks of a technical Offer. The Offer price was S$1.16/share compared to the S$1.17/share undisturbed price. The IFA opined the Offer was not fair nor reasonable. </li>
<li>The Tangs have now bumped to S$1.19/share. Terms are not final. The IFA viewpoint won't budge. This is an opportunistic move from the Tangs. But why not roll the dice?</li>
</ul>


Back on the 5th December, Gordan Tang (&amp; his wife Celine) acquired a 2.14% stake in Suntec REIT (SUN SP), lifting their stake to 31.45% from 29.31%, triggering a MGO.
This had all the hallmarks of a technical Offer. The Offer price was S$1.16/share compared to the S$1.17/share undisturbed price. The IFA opined the Offer was not fair nor reasonable. 
The Tangs have now bumped to S$1.19/share. Terms are not final. The IFA viewpoint won't budge. This is an opportunistic move from the Tangs. But why not roll the dice?


Suntec REIT (SUN SP): Tang's Curious Bump

China National Building Material / Event-Driven

China National Building Material (3323 HK)

<ul>
<li>On the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1206/2024120601604.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">6th December</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a> (CNBM), a leading PRC building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.</li>
<li>The thrust of the buyback lifts the stake of CNBM's parent - the CNBM Parent Concert Group - to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, necessitating a whitewash waiver.</li>
<li>Pre-Cons were satisfied on the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0124/2025012401173.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">24th Jan</a>. The independent H-class shareholders vote for the waiver is on the 19th Feb. Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. Implied back-end price is well down. </li>
</ul>


On the 6th December, China National Building Material (3323 HK) (CNBM), a leading PRC building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.
The thrust of the buyback lifts the stake of CNBM's parent - the CNBM Parent Concert Group - to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, necessitating a whitewash waiver.
Pre-Cons were satisfied on the 24th Jan. The independent H-class shareholders vote for the waiver is on the 19th Feb. Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. Implied back-end price is well down. 


CNBM (3323 HK): This Is An "Avoid" Ahead Of 19th Feb H-Class Shareholder Vote

<ul>
<li>I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. </li>
<li>One new deal was discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/city-developments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:57:1" rel="noopener">City Developments (CIT SP)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/millennium-copthorne-hotels-nz-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5040:1" rel="noopener">Millennium &amp; Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avjennings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12578:1" rel="noopener">AVJennings (AVJ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest (1381 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. 
One new deal was discussed this week: City Developments (CIT SP)'s Offer for Millennium &amp; Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ).
Key updates/news took place on: Insignia Financial (IFL AU), AVJennings (AVJ AU), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Canvest (1381 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), and Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP). 


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Millennium & Copthorne, Insignia, AVJennings, Henlius, Canvest, Makino Milling

Malaysia Airports Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 17th January, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)</a>'s Offer was <a href="https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=239237&amp;name=EA_DS_ATTACHMENTS" target="_blank" rel="noopener">extended</a> to the 24th January. Shares held by the Consortium plus tendering was then 86.18%. This looked done.</li>
<li>The closing date of the Offer could have been pushed out to 4th Feb. However the consortium has now opted to<a href="https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=239254&amp;name=EA_DS_ATTACHMENTS" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> lower the acceptance threshold</a> to 85% from 90%. </li>
<li>Because of the revision, shareholders can withdraw shares tendered before the 28th January. But why would they? This is now very much done. And trading accordingly. </li>
</ul>


On the 17th January, Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)'s Offer was extended to the 24th January. Shares held by the Consortium plus tendering was then 86.18%. This looked done.
The closing date of the Offer could have been pushed out to 4th Feb. However the consortium has now opted to lower the acceptance threshold to 85% from 90%. 
Because of the revision, shareholders can withdraw shares tendered before the 28th January. But why would they? This is now very much done. And trading accordingly. 


Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Lower Acceptance Condition Assures Completion

Australia

Orora Limited provides packaging products and services. The Company offers fiber, glass, and beverage can packaging materials in Australia and Asia and packaging distribution services in North America and Australia.

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Orora Ltd (ORA AU)

WH Group (288 HK) Is Stretched As Smithfield Mulls IPO Price Reduction

A US$10bn market cap for Smithfield was punchy. Reportedly, the feedback from investors think likewise. Dumbing down the bottom end of the price...

David Blennerhassett

Suntec REIT (SUN SP): Tang's Curious Bump

After the Tangs bumped to S$1.19/share on the 8th January, the IFA, with a fair value range of S$2.07-S$2.26, concluded on the 17th January that...

David Blennerhassett

CNBM (3323 HK): This Is An "Avoid" Ahead Of 19th Feb H-Class Shareholder Vote

If ~45% of independent H-share class shareholders tenders, pro-ration would be ~42%, implying a back-end B/E price of HK$3.28/share.This is an...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Millennium & Copthorne, Insignia, AVJennings, Henlius, Canvest, Makino Milling

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Lower Acceptance Condition Assures Completion

This is done. Assuming the offer turns unconditional on (or around) the 28th January, payment is expected within 10 days or around the 7th...

David Blennerhassett

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