Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

<ul>
<li>I tally 46 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtower-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31042:1" rel="noopener">JTower (4485 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/businesson-communication-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26040:1" rel="noopener">BusinessOn Communication (138580 KS)</a>'s Tender Offers. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orora-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16042:1" rel="noopener">Orora (ORA AU)</a> approached by Lone Star. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a> Offer also rumoured.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/namoi-cotton-co-operative" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10711:1" rel="noopener">Namoi Cotton Co Operative (NAM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apm-human-services-internation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34808:1" rel="noopener">APM Human Services (APM AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 46 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal
Two new deals were discussed this week: JTower (4485 JP) and BusinessOn Communication (138580 KS)'s Tender Offers. Orora (ORA AU) approached by Lone Star. Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) Offer also rumoured.
Key updates took place on China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Namoi Cotton Co Operative (NAM AU), APM Human Services (APM AU), and CPMC Holdings (906 HK).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: TCM, BusinessOn Comm, Orora, Ramsay Health Care, Namoi Cotton, APM, CPMC

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>In response to media speculation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orora-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16042:1" rel="noopener">Orora Ltd (ORA AU)</a> disclosed that it had rejected Lone Star's indicative non-binding proposal at A$2.55 per share, a 33.5% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The offer is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the share price collapse precipitating from the profit warning on 2 April. </li>
<li>The Lone Star offer is unattractive and could also draw other suitors. If Lone Star walks, the downside is low, as Orora’s valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.</li>
</ul>


In response to media speculation, Orora Ltd (ORA AU) disclosed that it had rejected Lone Star's indicative non-binding proposal at A$2.55 per share, a 33.5% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the share price collapse precipitating from the profit warning on 2 April. 
The Lone Star offer is unattractive and could also draw other suitors. If Lone Star walks, the downside is low, as Orora’s valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.


Orora (ORA AU): Lone Star’s Opportunistic A$2.55 Offer

<ul>
<li>Sustainable packaging play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orora-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16042:1" rel="noopener">Orora Ltd (ORA AU)</a> has "received and has rejected an opportunistic, conditional and non-binding indicative proposal from Lone Star Fund". </li>
<li>The <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240813/pdf/066khs2hyth37v.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A$2.55/share Offer</a> (less any dividends declared or payable), by way of a Scheme, was a  33.9% premium to last close. Orora was down 25% YTD, prior to the proposal.</li>
<li>Orora's FY24 results will be released tomorrow. Expect more commentary on the rejection of Lone Star's approach in the Q&amp;A. </li>
</ul>


Sustainable packaging play Orora Ltd (ORA AU) has "received and has rejected an opportunistic, conditional and non-binding indicative proposal from Lone Star Fund". 
The A$2.55/share Offer (less any dividends declared or payable), by way of a Scheme, was a  33.9% premium to last close. Orora was down 25% YTD, prior to the proposal.
Orora's FY24 results will be released tomorrow. Expect more commentary on the rejection of Lone Star's approach in the Q&amp;A. 


Orora Ltd (ORA AU) Rejects A$2.55/Share Offer From Lone Star

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/probiotec-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12047:1" rel="noopener">Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pyridam-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12900:1" rel="noopener">Pyridam Farma (PYFA IJ)</a>’s A$3.00 offer fair and reasonable as it is within its A$2.79-A$3.28 per share valuation range.</li>
<li>The scheme remains conditional on shareholders' (Probiotec and Pyridam), FIRB, and OJK approvals. Probiotec can also pay a permitted dividend of up to A$0.04 per share.</li>
<li>The gross spread of 4.9% (6.3% including dividends) reflects doubts about Pyridam’s funding credibility, as Pyridam’s market cap is 16% of Probiotec’s implied by the offer.</li>
</ul>


The Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU) IE considers Pyridam Farma (PYFA IJ)’s A$3.00 offer fair and reasonable as it is within its A$2.79-A$3.28 per share valuation range.
The scheme remains conditional on shareholders' (Probiotec and Pyridam), FIRB, and OJK approvals. Probiotec can also pay a permitted dividend of up to A$0.04 per share.
The gross spread of 4.9% (6.3% including dividends) reflects doubts about Pyridam’s funding credibility, as Pyridam’s market cap is 16% of Probiotec’s implied by the offer.


Probiotec (PBP AU): Scheme Vote on 29 May as Doubts on Pyridam’s Funding Linger

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, there are 3 stocks that are close to the deletion zone and could be removed from the index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.4% and a one-way trade of A$97m.</li>
<li>There are 9 stocks with over A$5m to trade from passive trackers but the impact on the stocks is not very high.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, there are 3 stocks that are close to the deletion zone and could be removed from the index at the March rebalance.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.4% and a one-way trade of A$97m.
There are 9 stocks with over A$5m to trade from passive trackers but the impact on the stocks is not very high.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Close Deletions

Australia

Orora Limited provides packaging products and services. The Company offers fiber, glass, and beverage can packaging materials in Australia and Asia and packaging distribution services in North America and Australia.

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Orora Ltd (ORA AU)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: TCM, BusinessOn Comm, Orora, Ramsay Health Care, Namoi Cotton, APM, CPMC

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Orora (ORA AU): Lone Star’s Opportunistic A$2.55 Offer

The Lone Star offer is unattractive and could also draw other suitors. If Lone Star walks, the downside is low, as Orora’s valuation is undemanding...

Arun George

Probiotec (PBP AU): Scheme Vote on 29 May as Doubts on Pyridam’s Funding Linger

The spread reflects concerns about the credibility of Pyridam’s funding (which requires OJK approval) due to the stark disparities in market cap....

Arun George

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Close Deletions

There are 3 close deletes for the index in March. Even if there are no changes, 1-way turnover is 4.4% and 1-way trade is A$97m. Shorts have been...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: TCM, BusinessOn Comm, Orora, Ramsay Health Care, Namoi Cotton, APM, CPMC

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Orora (ORA AU): Lone Star’s Opportunistic A$2.55 Offer

The Lone Star offer is unattractive and could also draw other suitors. If Lone Star walks, the downside is low, as Orora’s valuation is undemanding...

Arun George

Orora Ltd (ORA AU) Rejects A$2.55/Share Offer From Lone Star

Shares popped 17% on Lone Star's approach. IF YOU ARE AN ARBITRAGEUR, I might get involved here and on any material dips. IF YOU ARE A LONG-ONLY...

David Blennerhassett

Probiotec (PBP AU): Scheme Vote on 29 May as Doubts on Pyridam’s Funding Linger

The spread reflects concerns about the credibility of Pyridam’s funding (which requires OJK approval) due to the stark disparities in market cap....

Arun George

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Close Deletions

There are 3 close deletes for the index in March. Even if there are no changes, 1-way turnover is 4.4% and 1-way trade is A$97m. Shorts have been...

Brian Freitas