Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.</li>
<li>Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.</li>
<li>Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.</li>
</ul>


So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.
Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.
Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.


OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Suzhou Dongshan Precision A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish as long as $141.50 support on ACWI-US continues to hold. We discussed last week (2/26/26 Int'l Compass) to trim exposure to Korea and Taiwan...</li>
<li>...Noting for Korea that "with recent upside acceleration there is risk of a larger pullback following the current parabolic upside period."</li>
<li>That pullback has begun to materialize, and the growing list of concerns that we have highlighted since early-February remains a problem for global equities near-term</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish as long as $141.50 support on ACWI-US continues to hold. We discussed last week (2/26/26 Int'l Compass) to trim exposure to Korea and Taiwan...
...Noting for Korea that "with recent upside acceleration there is risk of a larger pullback following the current parabolic upside period."
That pullback has begun to materialize, and the growing list of concerns that we have highlighted since early-February remains a problem for global equities near-term


Pullback Offering Buying Opportunities; Crucial Support at $141.50 on ACWI-US Holding for Now

<ul>
<li>We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns</li>
<li>Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada</li>
</ul>


We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns
Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend
Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada


Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, DZT Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Ana, Toyota Industries, Nissan Motor, Mizuho Financial, Honda Motor.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Ana, Toyota Industries, Nissan Motor, Mizuho Financial, Honda Motor.


MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Apr): Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Ana

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

Japan

OSAKA GAS CO., LTD. produces and supplies natural gas primarily in Osaka, Kyoto, and Hyogo areas.  The Company provides gases and energy products for residential, commercial, and industrial customers.  Osaka Gas also constructs and maintains gas supply lines.  In addition, the Company sells gas appliances.

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Osaka Gas (9532 JP)

OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the...

David Mudd

Pullback Offering Buying Opportunities; Crucial Support at $141.50 on ACWI-US Holding for Now

Pullback Offering Buying Opportunities; Crucial Support at $141.50 on $ACWI Holding for Now; Discussed to trim exposure to Korea $EWY and Taiwan...

Vermilion Research

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives; Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities....

Vermilion Research

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Apr): Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Ana

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for Apr 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Ana, Toyota Industries,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

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