Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... <em>see pages 2-4 for actionable stocks. </em>We reiterate our overweight metals and mining.. <em>see pages 5 and 9-12 for actionable stocks. </em>Though lagging across many global markets, Utilities are particularly attractive in Europe and Japan<em>...</em> <em>see pages 6 and 13-17 for actionable stocks.</em></p>

We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... see pages 2-4 for actionable stocks. We reiterate our overweight metals and mining.. see pages 5 and 9-12 for actionable stocks. Though lagging across many global markets, Utilities are particularly attractive in Europe and Japan... see pages 6 and 13-17 for actionable stocks.

Global Strategy: Opportunities Within Mobile Payments, Metals & Mining, and Utilities

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Looking towards next year, we screened for names that are at or near their 8-year PBR low. We have not included names in the Financial Sector as they always seem to dominate the low PBR screen. Please let me know if you would like to see the screen with Financial names.</p><p>The largest name that made the screen is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1">Nissan Motor Co Ltd (7201 JP)</a> with a 0.8x PBR. Its PBR is just 6% above the 8-year low. At the end of September this year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/73" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor Corp (7203 JP)</a>'s PBR was around its 5-year low and…</p>

Looking towards next year, we screened for names that are at or near their 8-year PBR low. We have not included names in the Financial Sector as they always seem to dominate the low PBR screen. Please let me know if you would like to see the screen with Financial names.The largest name that made the screen is Nissan Motor Co Ltd (7201 JP) with a 0.8x PBR. Its PBR is just 6% above the 8-year low. At the end of September this year, Toyota Motor Corp (7203 JP)'s PBR was around its 5-year low and…

Deep Value Names to Think About for Next Year....

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>With Earnings Season just about to start we wanted to compare domestic broker EPS estimates to foreign broker estimates to see where there are significant differences.  We then looked at the weekly estimates since last June for both domestic and foreign brokers to identify when the divergence happened.</p><h2>Domestic Estimates 15% or more below Foreign Estimates</h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/024/154/original/3.png?1492028317" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="24154"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Custom Products</div><p>We all know that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/637" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> is a train wreck. However is it interesting that back in December domestic and…</p>

With Earnings Season just about to start we wanted to compare domestic broker EPS estimates to foreign broker estimates to see where there are significant differences.  We then looked at the weekly estimates since last June for both domestic and foreign brokers to identify when the divergence happened.Domestic Estimates 15% or more below Foreign EstimatesSource: Custom ProductsWe all know that Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) is a train wreck. However is it interesting that back in December domestic and…

Potential Surpises?? Comparing Foreign and Domestic FY1 EPS Estimates in Japan

Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

<p>Empirical data on the drivers of Japanese productivity are sadly not at the forefront of Abenomics, but they should be.  Europacifica CEO Naomi Fink has published, over the last year, two papers with Columbia University's CJEB which show exactly why this is.  The first of these papers illustrates why and where we find evidence that the BOJ's fight against deflation is insufficient (although it may be necessary) to cure Japan's ills:</p><h2>Why Overcoming Deflation Alone is Not Enough</h2><p>There is "bad…</p>

Empirical data on the drivers of Japanese productivity are sadly not at the forefront of Abenomics, but they should be.  Europacifica CEO Naomi Fink has published, over the last year, two papers with Columbia University's CJEB which show exactly why this is.  The first of these papers illustrates why and where we find evidence that the BOJ's fight against deflation is insufficient (although it may be necessary) to cure Japan's ills:Why Overcoming Deflation Alone is Not EnoughThere is "bad…

Japan Non-IT Industries: Overcoming Deflation Not Enough

Japan

OSAKA GAS CO., LTD. produces and supplies natural gas primarily in Osaka, Kyoto, and Hyogo areas.  The Company provides gases and energy products for residential, commercial, and industrial customers.  Osaka Gas also constructs and maintains gas supply lines.  In addition, the Company sells gas appliances.

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Osaka Gas (9532 JP)

Global Strategy: Opportunities Within Mobile Payments, Metals & Mining, and Utilities

We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... see pages 2-4 for...

Vermilion Research

Deep Value Names to Think About for Next Year....

Looking towards next year, we screened for names that are at or near their 8-year PBR low. We have not included names in the Financial Sector as...

Custom Products Group

Potential Surpises?? Comparing Foreign and Domestic FY1 EPS Estimates in Japan

With Earnings Season just about to start we wanted to compare domestic broker EPS estimates to foreign broker estimates to see where there are...

Custom Products Group

Japan Non-IT Industries: Overcoming Deflation Not Enough

Empirical data on the drivers of Japanese productivity are sadly not at the forefront of Abenomics, but they should be. Europacifica CEO Naomi...

Naomi Fink

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