Research from Quam Securities, Quam Securities

Quam Securities Research

Research from Quam Securities

Quam Securities

Since its inception in 1986, Quam Securities Limited (Quam Securities) has grown to become one of the few mid-tier securities brokerages in Hong Kong with global execution capabilities for both private and institutional clients. It boasts a well-established network in Greater China including Taiwan and in major world markets through the Global Alliance Partners (GAP). Quam Securities is well-positioned not only to harness and drive business within the China Tonghai International Financial Limited but also between China and the world markets.

Crypto

ABCDE Sector Weekly provides market-moving insights and news for the rapidly transforming digital asset sector with a primary emphasis on their impact on related equities.  More importantly, we keep equity investors informed on how they can invest on the right side of change.

ABCDE Sector Weekly provides market-moving insights and news for the rapidly transforming digital asset sector with a primary emphasis on their impact on related equities.  More importantly, we keep equity investors informed on how they can invest on the right side of change.   

<h3>Stock Picks</h3>
Coinbase (COIN US) – Growing by leaps and bounds; Initiate with Buy, TP: US$302.62 We initiate coverage of Coinbase Global (Coinbase) with a Buy rating and 12-month SOTP-derived target price of US$302.62. As one of the largest digital asset trading platforms with a broad suite of value-added services, we believe Coinbase will benefit from the expanding TAM of the cryptoeconomy, which will drive revenue and user growth. We see current valuations (17.2x 2022E P/E) as attractive relative to its robust growth profile and leading position in the digital asset industry.
BC Tech Group (863 HK) – Pushing the envelope in institutional digital asset; Initiate with Buy; TP: HK$18.53 We believe BCG’s shares offer investors exposure to the structural theme of rising institutional demand for digital assets trading and investment solutions. As one of the few publicly listed and licensed players in the digital asset exchange industry, we expect BCG to benefit from strong revenue growth and earnings breakeven in 2022E. We view current valuations (7.6x 2022E P/S) as attractive relative to its regional and global peers, given its robust revenue growth.
<h3>Where we differ</h3>
Sell-side research has been focused narrowly on margin compression and intensifying competition from other exchanges.  Our view is that focusing any discussion of licensed and regulatory compliant digital asset exchanges on commission and margin pressure is overly limiting. Instead, we urge equity investors to take a broader view. In other words, investing in pick and shovel plays will give investors exposure to the future potential of the digital asset phenomenon.

Stock Picks
Coinbase (COIN US) – Growing by leaps and bounds; Initiate with Buy, TP: US$302.62 We initiate coverage of Coinbase Global (Coinbase) with a Buy rating and 12-month SOTP-derived target price of US$302.62. As one of the largest digital asset trading platforms with a broad suite of value-added services, we believe Coinbase will benefit from the expanding TAM of the cryptoeconomy, which will drive revenue and user growth. We see current valuations (17.2x 2022E P/E) as attractive relative to its robust growth profile and leading position in the digital asset industry.
BC Tech Group (863 HK) – Pushing the envelope in institutional digital asset; Initiate with Buy; TP: HK$18.53 We believe BCG’s shares offer investors exposure to the structural theme of rising institutional demand for digital assets trading and investment solutions. As one of the few publicly listed and licensed players in the digital asset exchange industry, we expect BCG to benefit from strong revenue growth and earnings breakeven in 2022E. We view current valuations (7.6x 2022E P/S) as attractive relative to its regional and global peers, given its robust revenue growth.
Where we differ
Sell-side research has been focused narrowly on margin compression and intensifying competition from other exchanges.  Our view is that focusing any discussion of licensed and regulatory compliant digital asset exchanges on commission and margin pressure is overly limiting. Instead, we urge equity investors to take a broader view. In other words, investing in pick and shovel plays will give investors exposure to the future potential of the digital asset phenomenon.

Corporate Access: BC Tech Group & Coinbase Coverage

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

Well, that sure escalated quickly.Early last week, in the Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pre-ipo-esg-analysis-didi-s-exemplary-esg-achievements-eclipsed-by-regulatory-risks-and-uncertainty" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53687" rel="noopener">Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty</a>, I juxtaposed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi's (DIDI US)</a> relatively strong ESG results in areas under its control with serious concerns about regulatory risk outside of its direct control.Late last week, days after DiDi's successful US$4.4 billion initial public offering, Chinese regulators ordered the removal of DiDi's business-critical ride-hailing apps from online app markets, until the company rectifies "serious violations" pertaining to collection and use of customer data.DiDi is down 5.3% so far (delayed open today).Regulatory risk was central to my thesis in the first Insight. I hardly anticipated this, but I referred to regulatory risk as real, near-term, tangible investment risk; not just some fuzzy ESG risk. Given that, I felt obliged to follow up. At the same time, however, this news is covered ad nauseam.No sense in beating a dead horse with a broken record.So, I decided to do something different. That statement about regulatory risk being a real tangible investment risk is primarily based on anecdotal evidence – i.e., when regulators flex their muscle, stocks go down, not up. But "anecdotal" isn't good enough.Which is why I took this opportunity to quantify the impacts of adverse regulatory events in China. Specifically, with event studies measuring abnormal returns around major regulatory events across four broad categories. That's what most of this Insight is about. But back to DiDi for a moment.Regulatory risk and uncertainty for DiDi is much worse today than it was last week. Typically, the opposite would be true; a negative event out in the open is better than a possible event lurking in the shadows. But not this time. Barring an immediate change of heart by the PRC, this is bad.Therefore, downgrading to bearish.

Well, that sure escalated quickly.Early last week, in the Insight Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty, I juxtaposed DiDi's (DIDI US) relatively strong ESG results in areas under its control with serious concerns about regulatory risk outside of its direct control.Late last week, days after DiDi's successful US$4.4 billion initial public offering, Chinese regulators ordered the removal of DiDi's business-critical ride-hailing apps from online app markets, until the company rectifies "serious violations" pertaining to collection and use of customer data.DiDi is down 5.3% so far (delayed open today).Regulatory risk was central to my thesis in the first Insight. I hardly anticipated this, but I referred to regulatory risk as real, near-term, tangible investment risk; not just some fuzzy ESG risk. Given that, I felt obliged to follow up. At the same time, however, this news is covered ad nauseam.No sense in beating a dead horse with a broken record.So, I decided to do something different. That statement about regulatory risk being a real tangible investment risk is primarily based on anecdotal evidence – i.e., when regulators flex their muscle, stocks go down, not up. But "anecdotal" isn't good enough.Which is why I took this opportunity to quantify the impacts of adverse regulatory events in China. Specifically, with event studies measuring abnormal returns around major regulatory events across four broad categories. That's what most of this Insight is about. But back to DiDi for a moment.Regulatory risk and uncertainty for DiDi is much worse today than it was last week. Typically, the opposite would be true; a negative event out in the open is better than a possible event lurking in the shadows. But not this time. Barring an immediate change of heart by the PRC, this is bad.Therefore, downgrading to bearish.

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

When Sinomedia's chairman and founder's companies announced June 11th of this year they were going to sell their 53.4% of shares in Sinomedia (623 HK) to an "Independent Third Party", <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insight_providers/12" target="_blank">Jon Foster</a> and I had a chat to hash out why.We didn't like what we saw, at all, and Jon wrote a piece on it titled <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/if-it-looks-like-a-duck-and-quacks-like-a-duck-caveat-emptor" target="_blank">If it Looks Like a Duck and Quacks like a Duck, Caveat Emptor.</a>This deal duck is now dead. It is an ex-duck. Those interested in buying bombed out stocks would do well to look at the financial results released Wednesday. There is some weird stuff in there which doesn't jive internally with what they say elsewhere and doesn't jive with the way the rest of their market is headed. Advertising revenue dropped 26%. Integrated Brand Communications Services revenue dropped 43%, or 100%. I am not clear which. Internet Media &amp; Content Revenue dropped 63%. And the content of their Financial Summary and Outlook does not instill confidence in any way.Furthermore, the buyback conducted Thursday and Friday saw the company buy back more than 50% of the volume on each day, and the stock rallied very hard in the closing minutes to close down a total of 1% across those two days, despite horrific earnings and horrific markets elsewhere. I still wouldn't touch it. More below the fold...

When Sinomedia's chairman and founder's companies announced June 11th of this year they were going to sell their 53.4% of shares in Sinomedia (623 HK) to an "Independent Third Party", Jon Foster and I had a chat to hash out why.We didn't like what we saw, at all, and Jon wrote a piece on it titled If it Looks Like a Duck and Quacks like a Duck, Caveat Emptor.This deal duck is now dead. It is an ex-duck. Those interested in buying bombed out stocks would do well to look at the financial results released Wednesday. There is some weird stuff in there which doesn't jive internally with what they say elsewhere and doesn't jive with the way the rest of their market is headed. Advertising revenue dropped 26%. Integrated Brand Communications Services revenue dropped 43%, or 100%. I am not clear which. Internet Media &amp; Content Revenue dropped 63%. And the content of their Financial Summary and Outlook does not instill confidence in any way.Furthermore, the buyback conducted Thursday and Friday saw the company buy back more than 50% of the volume on each day, and the stock rallied very hard in the closing minutes to close down a total of 1% across those two days, despite horrific earnings and horrific markets elsewhere. I still wouldn't touch it. More below the fold...

Requiem for a Duck - Looked, Quacked, Caveated, Dead - STILL CAVEAT EMPTOR. 

China

OSL Group Ltd operates as a technology and digital asset company. The Company provides software-as-a-service, brokerage, exchange, and insured custody services for institutions and professional investors. BC Technology Group also engages in China-focused advertising and business park area management services.

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OSL Group (863 HK)

CTS Research: Digital Asset Thematic

Initiate COIN and BC Tech Group (863 HK) with Buy | Sign up for BC Tech Group NDR 20/8 | US infra bill passage; Poly Hack; Tencent NFT

Quam Securities

Corporate Access: BC Tech Group & Coinbase Coverage

We published a thematic sector report on Digital Asset Exchanges and initiated coverage on the Global Digital Exchange Sector with Buy ratings on...

Quam Securities

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

Last week, I wrote about DiDi's regulatory risk. This week, it's worse. Hence the downgrade. But this is mostly an analysis of how regulatory...

Kyle Rudden

Requiem for a Duck - Looked, Quacked, Caveated, Dead - STILL CAVEAT EMPTOR.

When Sinomedia's chairman and founder's companies announced June 11th of this year they were going to sell their 53.4% of shares in Sinomedia (623...

Travis Lundy

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