Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>We maintain BUY rating with target price at Bt43, based on 35xPE’21E, the average of the Thailand energy drinks stocks.</strong></p><div>• OSP’s 1Q21 net profit was at Bt1bn (+8%YoY, +18%QoQ), hitting a record high. The 1Q21 result was better our expectation and accounted to 27% of 2021 forecast.</div><div></div><div>• The YoY growth in 1Q21 earnings was driven by all-time-high revenue at Bt6.8bn (+1%YoY, +6%QoQ) from a double-digit growth of both C-Vitt and international sales from strong market execution, offsetting with the COVID-19 impact on energy drinks and personal care segment.</div><div>• 1Q21 OSP maintained its strong leadership position with number 1st market share at 54.9% and 34.9% in the energy drinks market and the functional drinks market, despite the market contraction.</div><div></div><div><strong>We maintain positive view toward its medium to long-term outlook driven by 1) Growing and gaining market share in Thailand energy drinks; 2) Solid C-vitt sales growth momentum; 3) Potential growth from CLMV markets; and 4) upside risk from hemp-related products.</strong></div>

We maintain BUY rating with target price at Bt43, based on 35xPE’21E, the average of the Thailand energy drinks stocks.• OSP’s 1Q21 net profit was at Bt1bn (+8%YoY, +18%QoQ), hitting a record high. The 1Q21 result was better our expectation and accounted to 27% of 2021 forecast.• The YoY growth in 1Q21 earnings was driven by all-time-high revenue at Bt6.8bn (+1%YoY, +6%QoQ) from a double-digit growth of both C-Vitt and international sales from strong market execution, offsetting with the COVID-19 impact on energy drinks and personal care segment.• 1Q21 OSP maintained its strong leadership position with number 1st market share at 54.9% and 34.9% in the energy drinks market and the functional drinks market, despite the market contraction.We maintain positive view toward its medium to long-term outlook driven by 1) Growing and gaining market share in Thailand energy drinks; 2) Solid C-vitt sales growth momentum; 3) Potential growth from CLMV markets; and 4) upside risk from hemp-related products.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<p>Ngern Tid Lor (NTL), a financial service provider based in Thailand, raised around US$1bn in its Thailand IPO. Prior to listing,  it was jointly owned by Bank of Ayudhya and CVC Capital Partners. </p><p>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ngern-tid-lor-pre-ipo-pre-covid-growth-track-record-has-been-very-strong" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor Pre-IPO - Pre-COVID growth track record has been very strong</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ngern-tid-lor-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-playing-catch-up-after-being-left-behind" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Playing Catch up After Being Left Behind </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ngern-tid-lor-ipo-not-really-at-a-large-discount-but-the-overall-sector-has-been-doing-very-well" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor IPO - Not Really at a Large Discount but the Overall Sector Has Been Doing Very Well</a>.</p><p>In this note, we will look at the deal dynamics and talk about valuations.</p>

Ngern Tid Lor (NTL), a financial service provider based in Thailand, raised around US$1bn in its Thailand IPO. Prior to listing,  it was jointly owned by Bank of Ayudhya and CVC Capital Partners. We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier note, Ngern Tid Lor Pre-IPO - Pre-COVID growth track record has been very strong,  Ngern Tid Lor Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Playing Catch up After Being Left Behind and Ngern Tid Lor IPO - Not Really at a Large Discount but the Overall Sector Has Been Doing Very Well.In this note, we will look at the deal dynamics and talk about valuations.

Ngern Tid Lor IPO Trading - Should Be a Steady Listing

<p>We initiate coverage of OSP with a BUY rating, based on a target price of Bt43.0, which is derived from 35xPE’21E, close to the average of the Thailand Energy Drinks sector and at a 40% discount to the Asia ex-Japan Consumer Staples sector.</p><h3>The story:</h3><div>• Growing and gaining market share in Thailand</div><div></div><div>• Sanitation and hygiene trend to drive improvement in personal care sales YoY</div><div></div><div>• Share price has already factored in COVID impact</div><div></div><div>• Expect OSP to report a 1Q21 net profit of Bt947m (+2%YoY, +11%QoQ).</div><p></p><h3>Risks:</h3><div>• Highly competitive industry</div><div></div><div>• Overseas investment failure</div><div></div><div>• Raw material price fluctuation</div>

We initiate coverage of OSP with a BUY rating, based on a target price of Bt43.0, which is derived from 35xPE’21E, close to the average of the Thailand Energy Drinks sector and at a 40% discount to the Asia ex-Japan Consumer Staples sector.The story:• Growing and gaining market share in Thailand• Sanitation and hygiene trend to drive improvement in personal care sales YoY• Share price has already factored in COVID impact• Expect OSP to report a 1Q21 net profit of Bt947m (+2%YoY, +11%QoQ).Risks:• Highly competitive industry• Overseas investment failure• Raw material price fluctuation

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

PTT Oil and Retail Business / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-oil-and-retail" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28939:1" rel="noopener">PTT Oil and Retail (OR TB)</a> raised about US$1.6bn at THB18 per share, the top-end of the IPO price range.</p>
<div>
<p>PTTOR is a market leader in the oil business as well as F&amp;B business. It has leveraged its service station network to build out its brand, Amazon Cafe, which has a strong presence even beyond service stations. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>We have previously covered the IPO in:</p>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ptt-oil-and-retail-ipo-f-b-business-is-the-profit-driver" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39105" rel="noopener">PTT Oil and Retail IPO - F&amp;B Business Is the Profit Driver</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ptt-oil-and-retail-ipo-updated-financials-and-competitive-landscape" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47002" rel="noopener">PTT Oil and Retail IPO - Updated Financials and Competitive Landscape</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ptt-oil-and-retail-ipo-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47003" rel="noopener">PTT Oil and Retail IPO - Thoughts on Valuation</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ptt-oil-and-retail-ipo-attractive-valuation-with-favorable-deal-dynamics-index-inclusion" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47073" rel="noopener">PTT Oil and Retail IPO - Attractive Valuation with Favorable Deal Dynamics (Index Inclusion)</a> </li>
</ul>
<p>In this note, we will look at the deal dynamics and provide implied valuations at different share price levels.</p>
</div>

PTT Oil and Retail (OR TB) raised about US$1.6bn at THB18 per share, the top-end of the IPO price range.

PTTOR is a market leader in the oil business as well as F&amp;B business. It has leveraged its service station network to build out its brand, Amazon Cafe, which has a strong presence even beyond service stations. 


We have previously covered the IPO in:


PTT Oil and Retail IPO - F&amp;B Business Is the Profit Driver 

PTT Oil and Retail IPO - Updated Financials and Competitive Landscape 

PTT Oil and Retail IPO - Thoughts on Valuation 

PTT Oil and Retail IPO - Attractive Valuation with Favorable Deal Dynamics (Index Inclusion) 

In this note, we will look at the deal dynamics and provide implied valuations at different share price levels.


PTT Oil and Retail IPO Trading - Still Reasonably Priced at the Top-End

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a> raised around US$277m in its Thailand IPO. The company is a subsidiary of Hong Kong listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:367:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)</a> and also counts <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> as a major shareholder.</p></div><div><p>I've covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kerry-express-thailand-ipo-time-for-delivery" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand IPO - Time for Delivery.</a></p></div><p>In this note, I'll talk about the deal updates and provide implied valuations at different share price levels.</p>

Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) raised around US$277m in its Thailand IPO. The company is a subsidiary of Hong Kong listed Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) and also counts VGI PCL (VGI TB) as a major shareholder.I've covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier note, Kerry Express Thailand IPO - Time for Delivery.In this note, I'll talk about the deal updates and provide implied valuations at different share price levels.

Kerry Express Thailand IPO Trading - Delivering a Christmas Present

Thailand

Osotspa is a leading Thai manufacturer and distributor of consumer products, primarily focusing on beverages, personal care, healthcare, and confectionery products. Its beverage portfolio includes energy drinks like M-150 and Shark Energy, sports drinks, and functional drinks. The company also offers baby care, women's beauty care, and male grooming products. Osotspa is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1891.

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Osotspa (OSP TB)

OSP: Very Impressive Start for 2021

We maintain BUY rating with target price at Bt43, based on 35xPE’21E, the average of the Thailand energy drinks stocks. We maintain positive view...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Ngern Tid Lor IPO Trading - Should Be a Steady Listing

Ngern Tid Lor (NTL), a financial service provider based in Thailand, raised around US$1bn in its Thailand IPO. Prior to listing, it was jointly...

Sumeet Singh

OSP: King of Energy Drinks in Thailand

We initiate coverage of OSP with a BUY rating, based on a target price of Bt43.0, which is derived from 35xPE’21E, close to the average of the...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PTT Oil and Retail IPO Trading - Still Reasonably Priced at the Top-End

PTTOR raised about US$1.6bn at THB18 per share. In this note, we will look at the deal dynamics and provide implied valuations at different share...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Kerry Express Thailand IPO Trading - Delivering a Christmas Present

Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) raised around US$277m in its IPO. Given its brand recognition, strong investor backing and sole way to play the e...

Sumeet Singh

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