Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>There is an interesting long-short trade that is setting up nicely amidst the Osstem Implant (048260 KS) employee embezzlement disaster.</li>
<li>Osstem Implant is currently included in the KOSDAQ150. Going forward, there is a strong possibility that Osstem Implant is excluded in KOSDAQ150 index.</li>
<li>Osstem Implant is currently involved in an employee embezzlement case worth 221 billion won. This employee stole the company's money and traded more than $1 billion in stocks. </li>
</ul>


There is an interesting long-short trade that is setting up nicely amidst the Osstem Implant (048260 KS) employee embezzlement disaster.
Osstem Implant is currently included in the KOSDAQ150. Going forward, there is a strong possibility that Osstem Implant is excluded in KOSDAQ150 index.
Osstem Implant is currently involved in an employee embezzlement case worth 221 billion won. This employee stole the company's money and traded more than $1 billion in stocks. 


Long-Short Trade of KOSPI200 & KOSDAQ150 Amid Osstem Implant Employee Embezzlement Disaster

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Does holding company ("holdco") discount in Korea apply to the likes of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:393:1" rel="noopener">SK Holdings (034730 KS)</a> (now Inc), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/osstem-implant-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1450:1" rel="noopener">Osstem Implant (048260 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fila-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10699:1" rel="noopener">Fila Holdings (081660 KS)</a> and others? To answer that question I think we need to know the history of the holdco in Korea.

Does holding company ("holdco") discount in Korea apply to the likes of SK Telecom (017670 KS) , SK Holdings (034730 KS) (now Inc), Osstem Implant (048260 KS) , LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) , Kakao Corp (035720 KS) , Fila Holdings (081660 KS) and others? To answer that question I think we need to know the history of the holdco in Korea.

The Holding Company Dilemma in Korea -  What's the Right Discount?

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Our screen looks for high valuation multiples presented by companies with significant earnings growth forecasts, as well as financial indicators that suggest balance sheet stress. 34 stocks appear in our Q2 2021 screen, versus 25 in Q1 2021 and 15 in Q4 2020. Our Q2 2021 screen shows a reduction in average stock rank to 65.18 from 70.8 points compared to the Q1 2020 screen, placing the stocks lower into the second quartile of the market and showing a deterioration in fundamental and technical aspects. Whilst this is a 7.6% decline, we see this data as tainted by trailing fundamentals. As we highlighted in previous commentaries, we expect the market to see a defined separation of Quality, Value and Relative Momentum over the next few quarters. The erosion is not unexpected as we see a wave of updated forecasts.

Our screen looks for high valuation multiples presented by companies with significant earnings growth forecasts, as well as financial indicators that suggest balance sheet stress. 34 stocks appear in our Q2 2021 screen, versus 25 in Q1 2021 and 15 in Q4 2020. Our Q2 2021 screen shows a reduction in average stock rank to 65.18 from 70.8 points compared to the Q1 2020 screen, placing the stocks lower into the second quartile of the market and showing a deterioration in fundamental and technical aspects. Whilst this is a 7.6% decline, we see this data as tainted by trailing fundamentals. As we highlighted in previous commentaries, we expect the market to see a defined separation of Quality, Value and Relative Momentum over the next few quarters. The erosion is not unexpected as we see a wave of updated forecasts.

Screening the Silk Road: Q2 2021 High Risk Names to Avoid

Whilst Q4's list posted strong price performance it was a case that a rising tide floated most boats. As in the previous few quarters, we are on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics, but in particular during H1 2021. In Q1, the Altman Z score is at a market-cap-weighted 1.03 times, a significant decrease on the 1.52 in Q4. This deterioration needs to be monitored since earnings continue to be adjusted by analysts and their limited visibility of any bottoming. 25 stocks appear in our Q1 2021 screen, versus 15 in Q4 2020.

Whilst Q4's list posted strong price performance it was a case that a rising tide floated most boats. As in the previous few quarters, we are on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics, but in particular during H1 2021. In Q1, the Altman Z score is at a market-cap-weighted 1.03 times, a significant decrease on the 1.52 in Q4. This deterioration needs to be monitored since earnings continue to be adjusted by analysts and their limited visibility of any bottoming. 25 stocks appear in our Q1 2021 screen, versus 15 in Q4 2020.

Screening the Silk Road: Q1 2021 High Risk Names to Avoid

The Korea Exchange announced its KOSDAQ150 and KRX300 indices rebalances today. There were 17 new additions and 17 deletions for KOSDAQ150. Most of the stocks that were expected to be included in KOSDAQ 150 were officially included in the rebalance. However there were a few surprises. For example <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanos-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16796:1" rel="noopener">Nanos Co Ltd (151910 KS),</a>which was one of the stocks that was expected to be included in KOSDAQ150, did not get included in this indext this time. On the other hand, the following stocks including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sang-a-frontec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20692:1" rel="noopener">Sang A Frontec (089980 KS)</a>, Novarex (194700 KS(, CIS (222080 KS), MedPacto (215980 KS), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koreacenter-com-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28329:1" rel="noopener">Koreacenter.com Co Ltd (290510 KS)</a>, and Soulbrain (357780 KS) which were not on the top of the lists of getting selected into the KOSDAQ150 index by the locals, were formally selected be part of the new KOSDAQ150 inclusions.  The Korea Exchange also made changes to the KRX300 index. Although the KRX300 index is not currently as important as KOSPI200 and KOSDAQ150 indices, it is increasingly gaining in importance among the local institutional investors. The KRX300 had 33 new additions and 35 deletions.

The Korea Exchange announced its KOSDAQ150 and KRX300 indices rebalances today. There were 17 new additions and 17 deletions for KOSDAQ150. Most of the stocks that were expected to be included in KOSDAQ 150 were officially included in the rebalance. However there were a few surprises. For example Nanos Co Ltd (151910 KS),which was one of the stocks that was expected to be included in KOSDAQ150, did not get included in this indext this time. On the other hand, the following stocks including Sang A Frontec (089980 KS), Novarex (194700 KS(, CIS (222080 KS), MedPacto (215980 KS), Koreacenter.com Co Ltd (290510 KS), and Soulbrain (357780 KS) which were not on the top of the lists of getting selected into the KOSDAQ150 index by the locals, were formally selected be part of the new KOSDAQ150 inclusions.  The Korea Exchange also made changes to the KRX300 index. Although the KRX300 index is not currently as important as KOSPI200 and KOSDAQ150 indices, it is increasingly gaining in importance among the local institutional investors. The KRX300 had 33 new additions and 35 deletions. 

KOSDAQ150 and KRX300 Indices Rebalances (Overlapping Additions & Deletions)

South Korea

Osstem Implant Co., Ltd. manufactures dental implant system. The Company also markets dental management software. Osstem Implant provides products for dental surgery and exports abroad.

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Osstem Implant (048260 KS)

Long-Short Trade of KOSPI200 & KOSDAQ150 Amid Osstem Implant Employee Embezzlement Disaster

There is a long-short trade that is setting up nicely amidst the Osstem Implant employee embezzlement disaster. Osstem Implant is involved in an...

Douglas Kim

The Holding Company Dilemma in Korea - What's the Right Discount?

The discount rate to NAV that is rule of thumb in Korea is 30% but does not make sense across the board? We discuss if there is a better way to...

Ken S. Kim

Screening the Silk Road: Q2 2021 High Risk Names to Avoid

34 stocks in our Q2'21 HIGH-RISK screen, vs Q1 2021 's 25. Q2'21 shows a reduction in avg stock rank to 65.2 from 70.8 pts in Q1 2020....

David Lepper

Screening the Silk Road: Q1 2021 High Risk Names to Avoid

As in the previous few quarters, we are on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics, but in particular during H1 2021. 25 stocks...

David Lepper

KOSDAQ150 and KRX300 Indices Rebalances (Overlapping Additions & Deletions)

We highlight the KOSDAQ150 and KRX300 indices rebalances. There are some interesting new names, especially among those that are over lapping in...

Douglas Kim

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