Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> reported 1% YoY revenue decline during 9MFY25 as domestic sales of prescription drugs decreased 38% YoY.</li>
<li>Quviviq, a DORA treatment for insomnia was launched in December 2024. Shionogi acquired exclusive distribution rights for Quviviq in Japan and it is expected to be a significant revenue contributor.</li>
<li>Shionogi submitted NDA in Japan for zuranolone, a treatment in development for major depressive disorder (MDD). Approval is expected in H1FY26.</li>
</ul>



Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) reported 1% YoY revenue decline during 9MFY25 as domestic sales of prescription drugs decreased 38% YoY.
Quviviq, a DORA treatment for insomnia was launched in December 2024. Shionogi acquired exclusive distribution rights for Quviviq in Japan and it is expected to be a significant revenue contributor.
Shionogi submitted NDA in Japan for zuranolone, a treatment in development for major depressive disorder (MDD). Approval is expected in H1FY26.


Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): 9MFY25 Revenue Flat; Insomnia Drug Launched; NDA Submission in Japan

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

FineToday Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finetoday-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44092:1" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP)</a> is a Japanese personal care business seeking to raise up to US$500 million. It will be listed on 17 December.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/finetoday-holdings-289a-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:167184" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/finetoday-holdings-289a-jp-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:167508" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bear Case</a>.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO reference price of JPY2,150 per share is unattractive. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) is a Japanese personal care business seeking to raise up to US$500 million. It will be listed on 17 December.
We previously discussed the IPO in FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case and FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bear Case.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO reference price of JPY2,150 per share is unattractive. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.


FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finetoday-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44092:1" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP)</a> is a Japanese personal care business seeking to raise up to US$500 million. It will be listed on 17 December.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/finetoday-holdings-289a-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:167184" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on the weak 3Q24 revenue performance, mid-tier revenue growth, leveraged balance sheet, share overhang and pre-IPO dividend.</li>
</ul>



FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) is a Japanese personal care business seeking to raise up to US$500 million. It will be listed on 17 December.
In FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on the weak 3Q24 revenue performance, mid-tier revenue growth, leveraged balance sheet, share overhang and pre-IPO dividend.


FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finetoday-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44092:1" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP)</a> is a Japanese personal care business seeking to raise up to US$500 million. It will be listed on 17 December.   </li>
<li>FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care, and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 9M24 revenue. </li>
<li>The bull case rests on return to revenue growth, three-pronged growth strategy, top-quartile profitability and top-tier FCF generation. </li>
</ul>



FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) is a Japanese personal care business seeking to raise up to US$500 million. It will be listed on 17 December.   
FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care, and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 9M24 revenue. 
The bull case rests on return to revenue growth, three-pronged growth strategy, top-quartile profitability and top-tier FCF generation. 


FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

<ul>
<li>During H1FY25, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> reported 3% YoY growth in revenue, driven by mainstay drugs. However, operating profit declined 11% YoY and net profit decreased 6% YoY.</li>
<li>Although Eisai kept its FY25 total revenue guidance unchanged, it has reduced Leqembi FY25 revenue guidance by ¥14B to ¥42.5B due to lower revenue expectation from Americas.</li>
<li>Leqembi is expected to be approved in Europe for a narrower set of patients. Next year, the drug will face competition in the U.S.</li>
</ul>


During H1FY25, Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) reported 3% YoY growth in revenue, driven by mainstay drugs. However, operating profit declined 11% YoY and net profit decreased 6% YoY.
Although Eisai kept its FY25 total revenue guidance unchanged, it has reduced Leqembi FY25 revenue guidance by ¥14B to ¥42.5B due to lower revenue expectation from Americas.
Leqembi is expected to be approved in Europe for a narrower set of patients. Next year, the drug will face competition in the U.S.


Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Mixed H1FY25 Performance; Guidance Reaffirmed; Leqembi Struggle Continues

Japan

Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd is a pharmaceutical company. The Company manufactures, sells, imports and exports pharmaceutical products, clinical testing, and medical equipment for intractable diseases.

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Otsuka Holdings (4578 JT)

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): 9MFY25 Revenue Flat; Insomnia Drug Launched; NDA Submission in Japan

Shionogi reported 1% revenue decline in 9MFY25. Despite of launching new insomnia drug in Japan and new drug application submission in Japan, near...

Tina Banerjee

FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO reference price of JPY2,150 per share is unattractive. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.

Arun George

FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on the weak 3Q24 revenue performance, mid-tier revenue growth, leveraged balance sheet, share overhang and pre-IPO dividend.

Arun George

FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on return to revenue growth, three-pronged growth strategy, top-quartile profitability and top-tier FCF generation.

Arun George

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Mixed H1FY25 Performance; Guidance Reaffirmed; Leqembi Struggle Continues

Eisai sees revenue growth but profit decline in H1FY25. The company reduced Leqembi guidance for FY25. Leqembi is expected to be approved in...

Tina Banerjee

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Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): 9MFY25 Revenue Flat; Insomnia Drug Launched; NDA Submission in Japan

​Shionogi reported 1% revenue decline in 9MFY25. Despite of launching new insomnia drug in Japan and new drug application submission in Japan, near...

Tina Banerjee

FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO reference price of JPY2,150 per share is unattractive. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.

Arun George

FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on the weak 3Q24 revenue performance, mid-tier revenue growth, leveraged balance sheet, share overhang and pre-IPO dividend.

Arun George

FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on return to revenue growth, three-pronged growth strategy, top-quartile profitability and top-tier FCF generation.

Arun George

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Mixed H1FY25 Performance; Guidance Reaffirmed; Leqembi Struggle Continues

​Eisai sees revenue growth but profit decline in H1FY25. The company reduced Leqembi guidance for FY25. Leqembi is expected to be approved in...

Tina Banerjee

Shionogi reported 1% revenue decline in 9MFY25. Despite of launching new insomnia drug in Japan and new drug application submission in Japan, near...

Eisai sees revenue growth but profit decline in H1FY25. The company reduced Leqembi guidance for FY25. Leqembi is expected to be approved in...