Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astellas-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091:1" rel="noopener">Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)</a> received a conditional approval of IZERVAY (avacincaptad pegol intravitreal solution) in Japan for the suppression of geographic atrophy (GA) growth in atrophic age-related macular degeneration (AMD).</li>
<li>In Q1FY26, with 25% YoY revenue growth, Izervay reported record high quarterly sales of ¥16B. The drug continues to be preferred treatment for new patient start (market share of ~55%).</li>
<li>For FY26, Astellas projects revenue of ¥470B from strategic brands, of which Izervay is expected to around ~¥105B. This will gradually accelerate in coming fiscals with Japan sales falling in.</li>
</ul>



Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) received a conditional approval of IZERVAY (avacincaptad pegol intravitreal solution) in Japan for the suppression of geographic atrophy (GA) growth in atrophic age-related macular degeneration (AMD).
In Q1FY26, with 25% YoY revenue growth, Izervay reported record high quarterly sales of ¥16B. The drug continues to be preferred treatment for new patient start (market share of ~55%).
For FY26, Astellas projects revenue of ¥470B from strategic brands, of which Izervay is expected to around ~¥105B. This will gradually accelerate in coming fiscals with Japan sales falling in.


Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Izervay Approved In Japan, Strategic Brands Will Be Key In Near Future

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

MicroPort Scientific / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$150m via selling its remaining shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microport-scientific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4487:1" rel="noopener">Microport Scientific (853 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Otsuka had sold the majority of its stake earlier this year.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) aims to raise around US$150m via selling its remaining shares in Microport Scientific (853 HK).
Otsuka had sold the majority of its stake earlier this year.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Microport Scientific Placement - Should Be Well-Flagged, Will Lift Overhang

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Murakami <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100WQFH.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2025-09-24T07%3A41%3A14Z&amp;se=2030-09-24T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=pBNXCLzc2M2noizmBySiKIgGaALs0RzHJHz3GWVI7jw%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> a 7.14% ownership ratio in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a>. The average buy-in price of JPY2,070.73 per share is 5.6% above the JPY1,960 CVC-sponsored MBO.</li>
<li>Murakami undoubtedly shares Hibiki’s concerns. On 15 September, Hibiki issued an open letter questioning the rationale behind the Board's recommendation of a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO. </li>
<li>With the emergence of Murakami, CVC and the founding family’s options narrow. The need for satisfaction of the precondition buys time, but a bump seems inevitable. </li>
</ul>


Murakami reported a 7.14% ownership ratio in Mandom Corp (4917 JP). The average buy-in price of JPY2,070.73 per share is 5.6% above the JPY1,960 CVC-sponsored MBO.
Murakami undoubtedly shares Hibiki’s concerns. On 15 September, Hibiki issued an open letter questioning the rationale behind the Board's recommendation of a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO. 
With the emergence of Murakami, CVC and the founding family’s options narrow. The need for satisfaction of the precondition buys time, but a bump seems inevitable. 


Mandom (4917 JP): Two Is a Company as Murakami Joins the Fray

<ul>
<li>On 15 September, Hibiki Path Advisors issued an <a href="https://www.hibiki-path-advisors.com/en/engagement/post-5029/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">open letter</a> questioning the rationale for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a> Board to recommend a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY1,960 per share. </li>
<li>Hibiki opines that the MBO is being done at the wrong price (Hibiki's value is JPY3,050). Some of Hibiki's criticisms are valid, while others are not.</li>
<li>CVC's initial approach will wait for precondition satisfaction and secure additional irrevocables. However, this is a stopgap measure, and a bump is likely to occur.</li>
</ul>


On 15 September, Hibiki Path Advisors issued an open letter questioning the rationale for the Mandom Corp (4917 JP) Board to recommend a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY1,960 per share. 
Hibiki opines that the MBO is being done at the wrong price (Hibiki's value is JPY3,050). Some of Hibiki's criticisms are valid, while others are not.
CVC's initial approach will wait for precondition satisfaction and secure additional irrevocables. However, this is a stopgap measure, and a bump is likely to occur.


Mandom (4917 JP): Welcome Activism as Hibiki Takes Issue with the Price

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a> has recommended a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY1,960, a 32.1% premium to the last close price.</li>
<li>The offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and the special committee’s requested price. It is unattractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. </li>
<li>The offer is unequivocally light. The setup has the potential for a bump, particularly if an activist emerges as a substantial shareholder.  </li>
</ul>



Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has recommended a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY1,960, a 32.1% premium to the last close price.
The offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and the special committee’s requested price. It is unattractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. 
The offer is unequivocally light. The setup has the potential for a bump, particularly if an activist emerges as a substantial shareholder.  


Mandom (4917 JP): A Light CVC-Sponsored Preconditional MBO

Japan

Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd is a pharmaceutical company. The Company manufactures, sells, imports and exports pharmaceuticals, clinical testing, and medical equipment for intractable diseases.

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Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP)

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Izervay Approved In Japan, Strategic Brands Will Be Key In Near Future

Astellas Pharma's Izervay receives conditional approval in Japan for age-related macular degeneration. Izervay witnessed record high sales in...

Tina Banerjee

Microport Scientific Placement - Should Be Well-Flagged, Will Lift Overhang

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) aims to raise around US$150m via selling its remaining shares in Microport Scientific (853 HK). In this note, we run the...

Sumeet Singh

Mandom (4917 JP): Two Is a Company as Murakami Joins the Fray

The tender offer is open from September 26 to November 10 (30 business days). The Board supports the offer and recommends that shareholders tender...

Arun George

Mandom (4917 JP): Welcome Activism as Hibiki Takes Issue with the Price

Hibiki opines that the MBO is being done at the wrong price (Hibiki's value is JPY3,050). Some of Hibiki's criticisms are valid, while others are...

Arun George

Mandom (4917 JP): A Light CVC-Sponsored Preconditional MBO

The offer is unequivocally light. The setup has the potential for a bump, particularly if an activist emerges as a substantial shareholder.

Arun George

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Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Izervay Approved In Japan, Strategic Brands Will Be Key In Near Future

​Astellas Pharma's Izervay receives conditional approval in Japan for age-related macular degeneration. Izervay witnessed record high sales in...

Tina Banerjee

Microport Scientific Placement - Should Be Well-Flagged, Will Lift Overhang

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) aims to raise around US$150m via selling its remaining shares in Microport Scientific (853 HK). In this note, we run the...

Sumeet Singh

Mandom (4917 JP): Two Is a Company as Murakami Joins the Fray

The tender offer is open from September 26 to November 10 (30 business days). The Board supports the offer and recommends that shareholders tender...

Arun George

Mandom (4917 JP): Welcome Activism as Hibiki Takes Issue with the Price

Hibiki opines that the MBO is being done at the wrong price (Hibiki's value is JPY3,050). Some of Hibiki's criticisms are valid, while others are...

Arun George

Mandom (4917 JP): A Light CVC-Sponsored Preconditional MBO

The offer is unequivocally light. The setup has the potential for a bump, particularly if an activist emerges as a substantial shareholder.

Arun George

Astellas Pharma's Izervay receives conditional approval in Japan for age-related macular degeneration. Izervay witnessed record high sales in...