Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. </li>
<li>The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. </li>
<li>These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings. </li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. 
The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. 
These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings. 


Overearning Short Candidates: Photronics, LSB Industries, Otter Tail, Kulicke & Soffa

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>While market commentary and cable business media talking heads were focused on arguing about the definition of a recession and whether the US economy is currently in one this week, there were notable developments in the back half of the week that came from DC that have significant market implications moving forward. </li><li>The arguments back and forth of whether or not we are in a recession is classic noise that investors should be tune out as GDP figures released this past week are backwards looking and the labeling is simply used as signaling for political points. </li><li>First, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell delivered the expected 75bps of interest rate increase this past meeting, but his comments were interpreted by many that the period of significant outsized hikes of 75bps are now behind us and that lower hikes will soon follow for the remainder of the year.</li></ul>

While market commentary and cable business media talking heads were focused on arguing about the definition of a recession and whether the US economy is currently in one this week, there were notable developments in the back half of the week that came from DC that have significant market implications moving forward. The arguments back and forth of whether or not we are in a recession is classic noise that investors should be tune out as GDP figures released this past week are backwards looking and the labeling is simply used as signaling for political points. First, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell delivered the expected 75bps of interest rate increase this past meeting, but his comments were interpreted by many that the period of significant outsized hikes of 75bps are now behind us and that lower hikes will soon follow for the remainder of the year.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

A breakout late last week in the high yield spread over 10-year Treasuries can now be added to the already long list of concerns we have for the market. Continued volatility remains our expectation, and it is becoming increasingly likely that the February 2018 lows will be tested, with new YTD lows a very real possibility.  In today’s report we reiterate our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups within Utilities and Financials.

A breakout late last week in the high yield spread over 10-year Treasuries can now be added to the already long list of concerns we have for the market. Continued volatility remains our expectation, and it is becoming increasingly likely that the February 2018 lows will be tested, with new YTD lows a very real possibility.  In today’s report we reiterate our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups within Utilities and Financials.

U.S. Equity Strategy: How Much Worse Can It Get?

United States

Otter Tail Corporation, through its utility business units, provides electricity and energy services to customers in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The Company, through its Varistar Corporation unit, operates manufacturing, plastics, health services, construction, entertainment, telecommunications, and transportation businesses with customers across the United States and Canada.

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Otter Tail Corp (OTTR US)

Overearning Short Candidates: Photronics, LSB Industries, Otter Tail, Kulicke & Soffa

Margin over-earners are fertile hunting ground for shorts if the reasons for the margin increase are unsustainable or fraudulent. This week:...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 8/1

The arguments back and forth of whether or not we are in a recession is classic noise that investors should be tune out as GDP figures released...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

U.S. Equity Strategy: How Much Worse Can It Get?

A breakout late last week in the high yield spread over 10-year Treasuries can now be added to the already long list of concerns we have for the...

Vermilion Research

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