Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.</li>
<li>Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.
Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.


Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Event-Driven

<ul><li>During the last quarter of 2024, 55% of active SA equity funds outperformed their benchmarks.</li><li>This is ahead of preceding quarter where 48% of active funds outperformed.</li><li>It is also interesting to note that for the year up to the end of Q3 2024, 22% of funds outperformed their benchmarks.</li></ul>

During the last quarter of 2024, 55% of active SA equity funds outperformed their benchmarks.This is ahead of preceding quarter where 48% of active funds outperformed.It is also interesting to note that for the year up to the end of Q3 2024, 22% of funds outperformed their benchmarks.

Funds in Focus Q4 2024 & 2024: A Better Quarter & Year for Active SA Equity Managers

<ul><li>JSE indices will be rebalanced in the closing auction tomorrow. OUT will enter the Top 40 and the Capped Top 40, with NPH falling out.</li><li>Naspers and Prosus will be sold down in the Capped ALSI and the Capped Top 40 as a result of capping.</li><li>Prosus will be sold down in the uncapped indices due to a reduction in shares in issue as well as the SWIX float.</li></ul>

JSE indices will be rebalanced in the closing auction tomorrow. OUT will enter the Top 40 and the Capped Top 40, with NPH falling out.Naspers and Prosus will be sold down in the Capped ALSI and the Capped Top 40 as a result of capping.Prosus will be sold down in the uncapped indices due to a reduction in shares in issue as well as the SWIX float.

JSE December 2024 Rebalance OUT to Enter Top 40, NPH to Fall Out / NPN X PRX Top Sells (Capping)

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>On Wednesday, after the close, the JSE released index changes scheduled for the December rebalance (Friday, 20 Dec).</li>
<li>OUT will enter the Top 40, with NPH falling out. AMS will enter the RESI 10 and EXX will fall out.</li>
<li>Naspers and Prosus released 1H results on Monday. The discounts have narrowed through the last 3 trading days, Naspers and Prosus are up 6% and 3.1%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


On Wednesday, after the close, the JSE released index changes scheduled for the December rebalance (Friday, 20 Dec).
OUT will enter the Top 40, with NPH falling out. AMS will enter the RESI 10 and EXX will fall out.
Naspers and Prosus released 1H results on Monday. The discounts have narrowed through the last 3 trading days, Naspers and Prosus are up 6% and 3.1%, respectively.


JSE Dec 2024 Rebal: OUT to Enter Top 40, NPH to Fall Out / NPN PRX 1H Results: Discounts Catch Bid

<ul><li>Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE December rebalance. </li><li>OUT is expected to enter the Top 40 with NPH falling out.</li><li>No changes are expected for the FINI, FINDI, INDI or RESI. NPH was removed from the index series at the rebalance yesterday.</li></ul>

Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE December rebalance. OUT is expected to enter the Top 40 with NPH falling out.No changes are expected for the FINI, FINDI, INDI or RESI. NPH was removed from the index series at the rebalance yesterday.

DMA | JSE Dec 24 Rebalance: OUT Expected to Enter Top 40, NPH to Exit

South Africa

OUTsurance Group Limited operates as an insurance firm. The Company offers auto, home, life, and business insurance products and services. OUTsurance Group serves customers in South Africa.

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OUTsurance Group (OUT SJ)

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO $STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level; Watch for Resistance at $105-$117.69 on $ACWI. Buy...

Vermilion Research

Funds in Focus Q4 2024 & 2024: A Better Quarter & Year for Active SA Equity Managers

During the last quarter of 2024, 55% of active SA equity funds outperformed their benchmarks. This is ahead of preceding quarter where 48% of...

DMA

JSE December 2024 Rebalance OUT to Enter Top 40, NPH to Fall Out / NPN X PRX Top Sells (Capping)

JSE indices will be rebalanced in the closing auction tomorrow. OUT will enter the Top 40 and the Capped Top 40, with NPH falling out. Naspers and...

DMA

JSE Dec 2024 Rebal: OUT to Enter Top 40, NPH to Fall Out / NPN PRX 1H Results: Discounts Catch Bid

Naspers and Prosus have outperformed the underlying portfolio following the release of 1H FY25 results. Naspers has outperformed Prosus, reducing...

DMA

DMA | JSE Dec 24 Rebalance: OUT Expected to Enter Top 40, NPH to Exit

Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE December rebalance. OUT is expected to enter the Top 40 with NPH falling out.

DMA

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