Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Six(!) new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual (PPT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-logistics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3935:1" rel="noopener">Alps Logistics (9055 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/namoi-cotton-co-operative" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10711:1" rel="noopener">Namoi Cotton (NAM AU)</a>'; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern (GE SP)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nihon-housing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9604:1" rel="noopener">Nihon Housing (4781 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">GAPack (468 HK)</a>'. </li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qantm-intellectual-property" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24317:1" rel="noopener">QANTM Intellectual Property (QIP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adbri-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20166:1" rel="noopener">Adbri (ABC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Six(!) new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Perpetual (PPT AU), Alps Logistics (9055 JP), Namoi Cotton (NAM AU)'; Great Eastern (GE SP); Nihon Housing (4781 JP) and GAPack (468 HK)'. 
Key updates took place on: QANTM Intellectual Property (QIP AU), Adbri (ABC AU), L'Occitane (973 HK), Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), and Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Namoi Cotton, Great Eastern, GAPack, Nihon, Chilled & Frozen, Shinko Electric

<ul>
<li>Tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-rom-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2686:1" rel="noopener">I'Rom Group (2372 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-line-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8076:1" rel="noopener">S Line (9078 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a> also in the crosshairs. </li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huafa-property-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5841:1" rel="noopener">Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-super-market-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15519:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Super Market (9919 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK), I'Rom Group (2372 JP) and S Line (9078 JP). ESR Group (1821 HK) also in the crosshairs. 
Key updates took place on: Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK), Kansai Super Market (9919 JP) , Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) and L'Occitane (973 HK).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: ESR Group, I'Rom Group, S Line, Huafa Property Services, Kansai Super Market

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>OCBC has seen its mkt cap RISE by ~4% YTD. This is stark contrast to the ~6.5% lower mkt cap at DBS and around 10% lower mkt cap at UOB.</li>
<li>Net interest income had been strong, and this likely slows, a lot. Other areas are far from strong. Credit costs are up 103% YoY at 9M23.</li>
<li>Profit from insurance is down 12% YoY and down 16% QoQ, in 3Q23 (Great Eastern). Profit from associates is -1% YoY in the quarter and only +1% YoY</li>
</ul>


OCBC has seen its mkt cap RISE by ~4% YTD. This is stark contrast to the ~6.5% lower mkt cap at DBS and around 10% lower mkt cap at UOB.
Net interest income had been strong, and this likely slows, a lot. Other areas are far from strong. Credit costs are up 103% YoY at 9M23.
Profit from insurance is down 12% YoY and down 16% QoQ, in 3Q23 (Great Eastern). Profit from associates is -1% YoY in the quarter and only +1% YoY


OCBC - Market Capitalization Rising, Unlike Peers | Insurance Is Lack Luster | Credit Costs Seem Low

<ul>
<li>In past 2 quarters <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a> saw its credit costs rise 150% YoY and then 250% YoY. For almost all of the preceding 8 quarters YoY growth was negative. </li>
<li>It holds 3.8% of total loans in Greater China CRE, a sector that has seen visible deterioration in some banks, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> is seeing weakness in main revenue lines, with worsening policy claims. Its profit delta this year is distorted from the base effect. </li>
</ul>


In past 2 quarters OCBC (OCBC SP) saw its credit costs rise 150% YoY and then 250% YoY. For almost all of the preceding 8 quarters YoY growth was negative. 
It holds 3.8% of total loans in Greater China CRE, a sector that has seen visible deterioration in some banks, like Standard Chartered (STAN LN) and HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN). 

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) is seeing weakness in main revenue lines, with worsening policy claims. Its profit delta this year is distorted from the base effect. 


OCBC - 10 Nov Results | Credit Costs +150% Then +250% | ~4% Loans Greater China CRE | Insurance Risk

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Bukalapak.com PT Tbk / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range.</li>
<li>Buka is an Indonesian e-commerce company. The company operates an online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) marketplace. It also operates Mitra Bukalapak (Mitra) which provides online-to-offline (O2O) services to MSMEs.</li>
<li>The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup on 6th April 2022.</li>
</ul>


Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range.
Buka is an Indonesian e-commerce company. The company operates an online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) marketplace. It also operates Mitra Bukalapak (Mitra) which provides online-to-offline (O2O) services to MSMEs.
The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup on 6th April 2022.


Bukalapak IPO Lock-Up - Scattered Shareholding Could Put Some Pressure on the Share Price

Singapore

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

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OCBC (OCBC SP)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Namoi Cotton, Great Eastern, GAPack, Nihon, Chilled & Frozen, Shinko Electric

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: ESR Group, I'Rom Group, S Line, Huafa Property Services, Kansai Super Market

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

OCBC - Market Capitalization Rising, Unlike Peers | Insurance Is Lack Luster | Credit Costs Seem Low

OCBC may see its net interest income slow dramatically, exposing the worsening other line items, where credit costs can especially surprise,...

Daniel Tabbush

OCBC - 10 Nov Results | Credit Costs +150% Then +250% | ~4% Loans Greater China CRE | Insurance Risk

OCBC releases results on 10 Nov. We believe the figures can underwhelm due largely to credit metrics. Insurance operations have also shown core...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Namoi Cotton, Great Eastern, GAPack, Nihon, Chilled & Frozen, Shinko Electric

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: ESR Group, I'Rom Group, S Line, Huafa Property Services, Kansai Super Market

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

OCBC - Market Capitalization Rising, Unlike Peers | Insurance Is Lack Luster | Credit Costs Seem Low

OCBC may see its net interest income slow dramatically, exposing the worsening other line items, where credit costs can especially surprise,...

Daniel Tabbush

OCBC - 10 Nov Results | Credit Costs +150% Then +250% | ~4% Loans Greater China CRE | Insurance Risk

OCBC releases results on 10 Nov. We believe the figures can underwhelm due largely to credit metrics. Insurance operations have also shown core...

Daniel Tabbush

Bukalapak IPO Lock-Up - Scattered Shareholding Could Put Some Pressure on the Share Price

Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range. The pre-IPO shareholders will be released...

Sumeet Singh