Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There was a release from the State Council in China in late September about increasing Tier 1 capital of 6 of China's banks through a government capital injection</li>
<li>This week there was a Bloomberg story on this, but only them, talking about something similar and indicating at least RMB400bn of new capital for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agricultural-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1120:1" rel="noopener"></a>ABC and BoCom.</li>
<li>Interpolating from the numbers, there can be a 10% increase in total equity which may also be equivalent or nearly equivalent or slightly higher than total stated NPLs </li>
</ul>


There was a release from the State Council in China in late September about increasing Tier 1 capital of 6 of China's banks through a government capital injection
This week there was a Bloomberg story on this, but only them, talking about something similar and indicating at least RMB400bn of new capital for ABC and BoCom.
Interpolating from the numbers, there can be a 10% increase in total equity which may also be equivalent or nearly equivalent or slightly higher than total stated NPLs 


China Banks - If Largest 5 Banks Are Recapitalized with RMB1,415bn It Can Be Highly Positive

<ul>
<li>The idea of investing in banks is to put your capital to work by lending to corporates or consumer in any given economy or several at once</li>
<li>Singapore's banks are telling us with their more than SGD11bn of dividends announced, that they are not able to deploy their capital</li>
<li>We must expect that lending growth will remain subdued in the Singapore home market, in Malaysia, and in Greater China</li>
</ul>


The idea of investing in banks is to put your capital to work by lending to corporates or consumer in any given economy or several at once
Singapore's banks are telling us with their more than SGD11bn of dividends announced, that they are not able to deploy their capital
We must expect that lending growth will remain subdued in the Singapore home market, in Malaysia, and in Greater China


Singapore Banks - Giving Back Many Billions of Capital, Suggests Outlook for Lending, Not Great

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

<ul><li>Singtel's FY2025 ebit growth guidance may rise to mid-to-high teens from successful cost cuts, according to CGSI.</li><li>IG predicts OCBC will reach $19 and UOB will hit $39.90 in share price.</li><li>SGX reports record revenue and profit in first half, with 1HFY2025 adjusted net profit up 27.3% and increased revenue across all segments. CEO Loh addresses succession concerns.</li></ul>

Singtel's FY2025 ebit growth guidance may rise to mid-to-high teens from successful cost cuts, according to CGSI.IG predicts OCBC will reach $19 and UOB will hit $39.90 in share price.SGX reports record revenue and profit in first half, with 1HFY2025 adjusted net profit up 27.3% and increased revenue across all segments. CEO Loh addresses succession concerns.

Singapore Market Roundup (06-Feb-2025): Singtel poised for strong ebit growth in FY2025 - CGSI

<ul><li>Singtel is considering raising their FY2025 ebit growth guidance to mid-to-high teens, attributed to successful cost cutting efforts according to CGSI.</li><li>IG forecast predicts OCBC stock may reach $19 and UOB may rise to $39.90. RHB increases Centurion's target price and earnings due to higher rate assumptions.</li><li>CGSI maintains 'add' rating for Genting Singapore despite slow tourism recovery. However, DBS and RHB cut CDLHT's target price due to Singapore hotel oversupply.</li></ul>

Singtel is considering raising their FY2025 ebit growth guidance to mid-to-high teens, attributed to successful cost cutting efforts according to CGSI.IG forecast predicts OCBC stock may reach $19 and UOB may rise to $39.90. RHB increases Centurion's target price and earnings due to higher rate assumptions.CGSI maintains 'add' rating for Genting Singapore despite slow tourism recovery. However, DBS and RHB cut CDLHT's target price due to Singapore hotel oversupply.

Singapore Market Roundup (05-Feb-2025): Singtel may raise FY2025 ebit growth guidance.

<ul><li>Suntec REIT's future outlook uncertain, with analysts predicting lower estimates for FY2025-FY2026.</li><li>OUE REIT's performance post FY2024 results continues to divide opinions amongst analysts.</li><li>DBS maintains 'buy' rating and $3 target price for Seatrium, while reporting weak overseas assets for MPACT in 3QFY2025.</li></ul>

Suntec REIT's future outlook uncertain, with analysts predicting lower estimates for FY2025-FY2026.OUE REIT's performance post FY2024 results continues to divide opinions amongst analysts.DBS maintains 'buy' rating and $3 target price for Seatrium, while reporting weak overseas assets for MPACT in 3QFY2025.

Singapore Market Roundup (28-Jan-2025): Suntec REIT's FY2024 uncertain, lower estimates for FY2025-FY2026.

Singapore

OCBC Bank is a Singaporean multinational banking and financial services corporation. It offers a comprehensive suite of services including consumer, corporate, investment, and private banking, alongside insurance, asset management, and stockbroking. The company is headquartered in Singapore and was founded on October 31, 1932.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

OCBC Bank (OCBC SP)

China Banks - If Largest 5 Banks Are Recapitalized with RMB1,415bn It Can Be Highly Positive

BBG article about China recapitalizing its largest 5 banks, may be real news, coming after an official release in September. Recapping banks can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Banks - Giving Back Many Billions of Capital, Suggests Outlook for Lending, Not Great

Singapore's banks are all giving back lots of capital to shareholders. This may appear to be good for yield, but it suggests to us that lending...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Market Roundup (06-Feb-2025): Singtel poised for strong ebit growth in FY2025 - CGSI

Singtel may raise FY2025 ebit growth guidance, OCBC and UOB shares expected to rise, SGX reports record revenue and profit in first half of year.

Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup (05-Feb-2025): Singtel may raise FY2025 ebit growth guidance.

Singtel may raise FY2025 ebit growth guidance, OCBC and UOB stocks may rise, Centurion's target price increased, Genting Singapore 'add' rating...

Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup (28-Jan-2025): Suntec REIT's FY2024 uncertain, lower estimates for FY2025-FY2026.

Analysts divided on Suntec REIT's FY2024 but lower estimates for FY2025-FY2026 with predictions for DBS at $49, UOB at $42, OCBC at $19, OUE REIT...

Singapore Market Roundup

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)