Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Price and relative strength trends continue to improve for our international equal-weight Health Care Sector. We recommend adding exposure, and provide charts on numerous actionable stocks across global markets. We also highlight actionable stocks within Materials, beyond metals &amp; mining stocks, that are outperforming.

Price and relative strength trends continue to improve for our international equal-weight Health Care Sector. We recommend adding exposure, and provide charts on numerous actionable stocks across global markets. We also highlight actionable stocks within Materials, beyond metals &amp; mining stocks, that are outperforming. 

Global Strategy: Opportunities in Health Care & Materials Stocks

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Following the commercial launch in 2017 of partner Novartis’s CAR-T Kymriah (in r/r paediatric ALL), Oxford BioMedica (OXB) has become one of a handful of regulatory approved gene and cell therapy manufacturers worldwide. This validation of its capabilities was most recently demonstrated in signing the £100m+ collaboration with Bioverativ to develop haemophilia gene therapies. We expect OXB to rapidly expand its manufacturing capacity to enable top-line growth. We have reassessed many of our valuation assumptions and now include the partnerships with Immune Design, Orchard and Bioverativ. Moreover, internal asset, OXB-102, will start a Phase II trial shortly. We value OXB at £513m (15.6p/share).

Following the commercial launch in 2017 of partner Novartis’s CAR-T Kymriah (in r/r paediatric ALL), Oxford BioMedica (OXB) has become one of a handful of regulatory approved gene and cell therapy manufacturers worldwide. This validation of its capabilities was most recently demonstrated in signing the £100m+ collaboration with Bioverativ to develop haemophilia gene therapies. We expect OXB to rapidly expand its manufacturing capacity to enable top-line growth. We have reassessed many of our valuation assumptions and now include the partnerships with Immune Design, Orchard and Bioverativ. Moreover, internal asset, OXB-102, will start a Phase II trial shortly. We value OXB at £513m (15.6p/share).

Oxford BioMedica - Validation achieved, growth expected

Oxford BioMedica (OXB) has announced a collaboration and licence agreement with Bioverativ to develop gene therapy products for the treatment of haemophilia. Under the terms of the agreement OXB will receive a $5m upfront payment, plus milestone payments (potentially worth in excess of $100m) and royalties on net sales of any commercialised products. This agreement further validates the value partners see in OXB&rsquo;s LentiVector expertise and manufacturing capabilities. OXB now has multiple partnered products in various stages of development. Clinical progression and potential commercialisation of these could lead to substantial milestone and royalty revenues over the coming years. We place our numbers under review.

Oxford BioMedica (OXB) has announced a collaboration and licence agreement with Bioverativ to develop gene therapy products for the treatment of haemophilia. Under the terms of the agreement OXB will receive a $5m upfront payment, plus milestone payments (potentially worth in excess of $100m) and royalties on net sales of any commercialised products. This agreement further validates the value partners see in OXB&rsquo;s LentiVector expertise and manufacturing capabilities. OXB now has multiple partnered products in various stages of development. Clinical progression and potential commercialisation of these could lead to substantial milestone and royalty revenues over the coming years. We place our numbers under review.

Oxford BioMedica - LentiVector platform expanding into haemophilia

Kymriah (tisagenlecleucel/CTL019), for which Oxford BioMedica (OXB) provides the key lentiviral vector component, has been approved by the FDA for the treatment of patients up to 25 years of age with refractory/relapsed (second or later relapse) B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). Novartis has announced that the price for the one-off treatment will be $475k (c &pound;370k), an increase over our previous assumption of &pound;300k. We have updated our model to reflect the higher price, which materially increases the associated royalties we expect OXB to receive. Our updated valuation is &pound;284m (9.2p/share).

Kymriah (tisagenlecleucel/CTL019), for which Oxford BioMedica (OXB) provides the key lentiviral vector component, has been approved by the FDA for the treatment of patients up to 25 years of age with refractory/relapsed (second or later relapse) B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). Novartis has announced that the price for the one-off treatment will be $475k (c &pound;370k), an increase over our previous assumption of &pound;300k. We have updated our model to reflect the higher price, which materially increases the associated royalties we expect OXB to receive. Our updated valuation is &pound;284m (9.2p/share).

Kymriah approved - royalties to OXB assured

United Kingdom

Oxford Biomedica is a gene and cell therapy group focused on developing treatments for serious diseases based around its FDA approved lentiviral vector delivery platform. The Company leverages this platform to develop in vivo and ex vivo products in-house and with global Pharmaceutical and Biotech partners and has created it's own portfolio of gene and cell therapy product candidates.

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Oxford Biomedica PLC (OXB LN)

Global Equity Markets Overview

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and...

Vermilion Research

Global Strategy: Opportunities in Health Care & Materials Stocks

Price and relative strength trends continue to improve for our international equal-weight Health Care Sector.We recommend adding exposure, and...

Vermilion Research

Oxford BioMedica - Validation achieved, growth expected

Following the commercial launch in 2017 of partner Novartis’s CAR-T Kymriah (in r/r paediatric ALL), Oxford BioMedica (OXB) has become one of a...

Edison Investment Research

Oxford BioMedica - LentiVector platform expanding into haemophilia

Oxford BioMedica (OXB) has announced a collaboration and licence agreement with Bioverativ to develop gene therapy products for the treatment of...

Edison Investment Research

Kymriah approved - royalties to OXB assured

Kymriah (tisagenlecleucel/CTL019), for which Oxford BioMedica (OXB) provides the key lentiviral vector component, has been approved by the FDA for...

Edison Investment Research

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