Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 Index and LQ45 Index and 11 changes for the IDX80 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented on 29 July.</li>
<li>There is passive inflow on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO)</a> due to index inclusion, and on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a> due to capping changes.</li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 Index and LQ45 Index and 11 changes for the IDX80 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented on 29 July.
There is passive inflow on Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO) due to index inclusion, and on Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA) due to capping changes.
With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ends on 30 June. The changes should be announced in the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 29 July.</li>
<li>Potential adds are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-minerals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35927:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-minerals-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9136:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/transcoal-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28449:1" rel="noopener">Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-dayamitra-telekomunikasi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34741:1" rel="noopener">Mitratel (MTEL IJ)</a>.</li>
<li>Potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pembangunan-perumahan-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19840:1" rel="noopener">Pembangunan Perumahan (Persero) (PTPP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pabrik-kertas-tjiwi-kimia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19184:1" rel="noopener">Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia (TKIM IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6881:1" rel="noopener">Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gudang-garam-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:722:1" rel="noopener">Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ends on 30 June. The changes should be announced in the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 29 July.
Potential adds are Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ), Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ), Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ), Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI IJ) and Mitratel (MTEL IJ).
Potential deletions are Pembangunan Perumahan (Persero) (PTPP IJ), Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia (TKIM IJ), Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ), Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ) and Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ).


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July 2022): Candidates for Change

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> completes 20 trading days today. Based on the average price over the period and the last close, the stock meets the Fast Entry criteria for IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 inclusion.</li>
<li>Using a free float of 66%, we estimate passive trackers buying 5.42bn shares (US$74m) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a>. Announcement could come in a few days with implementation at month-end. </li>
<li>With the real float close to 4%, passive trackers will need to buy 11.6% of the real float and the stock could move higher in the short-term.</li>
</ul>



GoTo (GOTO IJ) completes 20 trading days today. Based on the average price over the period and the last close, the stock meets the Fast Entry criteria for IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 inclusion.
Using a free float of 66%, we estimate passive trackers buying 5.42bn shares (US$74m) of GoTo (GOTO IJ). Announcement could come in a few days with implementation at month-end. 
With the real float close to 4%, passive trackers will need to buy 11.6% of the real float and the stock could move higher in the short-term.


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia: Turning Tide with Index Inclusion?

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Equity Bottom-Up

Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Good price momentum, low correlation with Western stock markets, and good growth in core profit relative to its sector</li>
<li>Indonesia’s largest pulp and paper-related products manufacturer by sales should continue to benefit from continued high pulp price due to tight global supply following a suspension of capacity by the Chinese</li>
<li>Asian demand should remain solid at a CAGR of 5% until 2018, while announced capacity expansions from global paper players aren’t expected until 2020, 88% of INKP’s sales were in Asia in 2017</li>
<li>INKP has shown strong improvement in gross profit margin and current PE is still undemanding relative to global peers</li>
<li>Risk: China ramps up supply, lower demand from downstream players</li>
</ul>


Good price momentum, low correlation with Western stock markets, and good growth in core profit relative to its sector
Indonesia’s largest pulp and paper-related products manufacturer by sales should continue to benefit from continued high pulp price due to tight global supply following a suspension of capacity by the Chinese
Asian demand should remain solid at a CAGR of 5% until 2018, while announced capacity expansions from global paper players aren’t expected until 2020, 88% of INKP’s sales were in Asia in 2017
INKP has shown strong improvement in gross profit margin and current PE is still undemanding relative to global peers
Risk: China ramps up supply, lower demand from downstream players


INKP (INKP IJ): Valuation Still Undemanding Relative to Global Peers

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

Value-focused bottom-up Asian equity research

NVB Asia Pte Ltd

Bund Center Investment / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3813" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3813:1">Bund Center Investment Ltd (BCI SP)</a> was spun off from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1144" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1144:1">Sinarmas Land Ltd (SML SP)</a> in 2010</li><li>BCI owns property in Shanghai and Ningbo</li><li>Core asset: Westin Bund Center in Shanghai</li><li>Independent Appraisal value over 2 billion SGD, suggesting NAV per share of 2.71 SGD</li><li>Market Value of 607 million SGD, at current 0.80 SGD/share valuation</li><li>70% discount to NAV</li><li>Net Cash on Balance Sheet and good dividend track record since 2013</li><li>Fair Value: 1 SGD (base case)- 22% upside or 1.36 SGD (bull case) - 66% upside</li></ul>

Bund Center Investment Ltd (BCI SP) was spun off from Sinarmas Land Ltd (SML SP) in 2010BCI owns property in Shanghai and NingboCore asset: Westin Bund Center in ShanghaiIndependent Appraisal value over 2 billion SGD, suggesting NAV per share of 2.71 SGDMarket Value of 607 million SGD, at current 0.80 SGD/share valuation70% discount to NAVNet Cash on Balance Sheet and good dividend track record since 2013Fair Value: 1 SGD (base case)- 22% upside or 1.36 SGD (bull case) - 66% upside

Discover Singapore: Bund Center Investment (BCI SP); 70% Discount to NAV and Churning Out Dividends

Indonesia

PT Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk is an Indonesian company that manufactures paper products, industrial paper, and packaging products. Its main products include printing and writing paper, carton boxes, brown paper, and various stationery items. The company was founded on October 2, 1972, and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia (TKIM IJ)

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI

There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 and LQ45 indices that will be implemented on 29 July. The largest passive inflows are on BBRI, ARTO and...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July 2022): Candidates for Change

There could be 5 changes to the LQ45 Index at the July rebalance. The adds outperform the deletion the day after announcement and there is...

Brian Freitas

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia: Turning Tide with Index Inclusion?

GoTo completes 20 trading days today. The stock meets the threshold for Fast Entry to the IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 indices where passive trackers will need...

Brian Freitas

INKP (INKP IJ): Valuation Still Undemanding Relative to Global Peers

Good price momentum, low correlation with Western stock markets, and good growth in core profit relative to its sector Indonesia’s largest pulp...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Discover Singapore: Bund Center Investment (BCI SP); 70% Discount to NAV and Churning Out Dividends

Bund Center Investment Ltd (BCI SP) was spun off from Sinarmas Land Ltd (SML SP) in 2010 BCI owns property in Shanghai and Ningbo Core asset:...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

IDX30/​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI

There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 and LQ45 indices that will be implemented on 29 July. The largest passive inflows are on BBRI, ARTO and...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July 2022): Candidates for Change

There could be 5 changes to the LQ45 Index at the July rebalance. The adds outperform the deletion the day after announcement and there is...

Brian Freitas

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia: Turning Tide with Index Inclusion?

GoTo completes 20 trading days today. The stock meets the threshold for Fast Entry to the IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 indices where passive trackers will need...

Brian Freitas

INKP (INKP IJ): Valuation Still Undemanding Relative to Global Peers

Good price momentum, low correlation with Western stock markets, and good growth in core profit relative to its sector Indonesia’s largest pulp...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Discover Singapore: Bund Center Investment (BCI SP); 70% Discount to NAV and Churning Out Dividends

Bund Center Investment Ltd (BCI SP) was spun off from Sinarmas Land Ltd (SML SP) in 2010 BCI owns property in Shanghai and Ningbo Core asset:...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI