External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect aggregate earnings of the covered refineries to increase 11.1x YoY and 6.0x QoQ to Rs38.9bn.</li><li>The YoY increase is mainly driven by higher Gross Refinery Margins (GRMs), coupled with higher upliftment.</li><li>Industry GRMs are expected to clock in at US$27.6/bbl in 1QFY27, compared with US$6.5/bbl in 1QFY26 and US$29.0/bbl in 4QFY26.</li></ul>

We expect aggregate earnings of the covered refineries to increase 11.1x YoY and 6.0x QoQ to Rs38.9bn.The YoY increase is mainly driven by higher Gross Refinery Margins (GRMs), coupled with higher upliftment.Industry GRMs are expected to clock in at US$27.6/bbl in 1QFY27, compared with US$6.5/bbl in 1QFY26 and US$29.0/bbl in 4QFY26.

Pakistan Refinery - Refinery Profitability Likely to Remain Robust in 1QFY27; Stronger GRMs and Higher Upliftment Lifted Profitability

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Spare base oils supply is thin across major regions, leaving little room to absorb disruption from storms, outages or maintenance</li></ul><ul><li>Asia cleared a swathe of supply in the third quarter, leaving it balanced to tight with less room to cover other markets.</li><li>Singapore’s exports fell for a second week, a slowdown that would further limit Asia’s spare supply if it continues as seasonal demand firms.</li></ul>

Spare base oils supply is thin across major regions, leaving little room to absorb disruption from storms, outages or maintenanceAsia cleared a swathe of supply in the third quarter, leaving it balanced to tight with less room to cover other markets.Singapore’s exports fell for a second week, a slowdown that would further limit Asia’s spare supply if it continues as seasonal demand firms.

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 9 Oct '26

<ul><li>Base oils shipments from Taiwan extended their slowdown into a second week, coinciding with planned plant maintenance starting in October.</li><li>A cargo with a combination of Group II light and heavy grades loaded from Taiwan in early September for Europe passed through the Red Sea and Suez Canal in recent days.</li><li>A cargo loaded from South Korea in recent days headed to Northwest Europe, with arrival due in second-half November.</li></ul>

Base oils shipments from Taiwan extended their slowdown into a second week, coinciding with planned plant maintenance starting in October.A cargo with a combination of Group II light and heavy grades loaded from Taiwan in early September for Europe passed through the Red Sea and Suez Canal in recent days.A cargo loaded from South Korea in recent days headed to Northwest Europe, with arrival due in second-half November.

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 9 October

<ul><li>Pakistan’s listed refinery sector has been amongst the best-performing sectors on the PSX in FY27TD with a return of 56% compared to benchmark index (KSE-100) return of -1.6%.</li><li>With the approval of amended refining policy now, we believe the signing by refineries is expected to follow in the next few days, as per news.</li><li>Post upgradation of plants, the profitability of the refineries could significantly escalate amidst improved GRMs due to change in product mix, continuation of deemed duties income till 7th year of signing, removal of penalties amidst product specification compliance, and increase in production.</li></ul>

Pakistan’s listed refinery sector has been amongst the best-performing sectors on the PSX in FY27TD with a return of 56% compared to benchmark index (KSE-100) return of -1.6%.With the approval of amended refining policy now, we believe the signing by refineries is expected to follow in the next few days, as per news.Post upgradation of plants, the profitability of the refineries could significantly escalate amidst improved GRMs due to change in product mix, continuation of deemed duties income till 7th year of signing, removal of penalties amidst product specification compliance, and increase in production.

Pakistan Refinery - Upgrade to Boost Profits, Financial Close Remains Key Catalyst; Quantifying the Earnings Uplift for PRL & ATRL

<ul><li>Base oils supply is tighter than usual for the time of year, as Asian barrels filling overseas gaps face a competing call from recovering demand in their regional markets</li></ul><ul><li>Singapore's export recovery shows how additional barrels are becoming available as earlier disruptions ease.</li><li>That extra Asian supply is now facing a competing call from within the region as demand recovers, while maintenance in Taiwan and Saudi Arabia will remove more production.</li></ul>

Base oils supply is tighter than usual for the time of year, as Asian barrels filling overseas gaps face a competing call from recovering demand in their regional marketsSingapore's export recovery shows how additional barrels are becoming available as earlier disruptions ease.That extra Asian supply is now facing a competing call from within the region as demand recovers, while maintenance in Taiwan and Saudi Arabia will remove more production.

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 2 Oct '26

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Pakistan Refinery (PRL PA)

Pakistan Refinery - Refinery Profitability Likely to Remain Robust in 1QFY27; Stronger GRMs and Higher Upliftment Lifted Profitability

We expect aggregate earnings of the covered refineries to increase 11.1x YoY and 6.0x QoQ to Rs38.9bn. The YoY increase is mainly driven by higher...

Topline Securities

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 9 Oct '26

Spare base oils supply is thin across major regions, leaving little room to absorb disruption from storms, outages or maintenance Asia...

Base Oil News

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 9 October

Base oils shipments from Taiwan extended their slowdown into a second week, coinciding with planned plant maintenance starting in October. A cargo...

Base Oil News

Pakistan Refinery - Upgrade to Boost Profits, Financial Close Remains Key Catalyst; Quantifying the Earnings Uplift for PRL & ATRL

Pakistan’s listed refinery sector has been amongst the best-performing sectors on the PSX in FY27TD with a return of 56% compared to benchmark...

Topline Securities

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 2 Oct '26

Base oils supply is tighter than usual for the time of year, as Asian barrels filling overseas gaps face a competing call from recovering demand...

Base Oil News

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