Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In the past several days, one of the biggest news splash in the global financial markets has been Michael Burry taking huge bearish positions on Palantir and NVIDIA.</li>
<li>Prices of Palantir and Nvidia are down 6.3% and 3.6%, respectively from 31 October to 6 November. Nikkei and KOSPI are down 2.9% and 2%, respectively in the same period.</li>
<li>The risks surrounding CIRCULAR DEALMAKING involving OpenAI have become even more significant.  Amid these uncertainties, Michael Burry is taking action with his uber bearish positions on Nvidia and Palantir. </li>
</ul>


In the past several days, one of the biggest news splash in the global financial markets has been Michael Burry taking huge bearish positions on Palantir and NVIDIA.
Prices of Palantir and Nvidia are down 6.3% and 3.6%, respectively from 31 October to 6 November. Nikkei and KOSPI are down 2.9% and 2%, respectively in the same period.
The risks surrounding CIRCULAR DEALMAKING involving OpenAI have become even more significant.  Amid these uncertainties, Michael Burry is taking action with his uber bearish positions on Nvidia and Palantir. 


Michael Burry's Uber Bearish Positions in Palantir and Nvidia

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-systems-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28308:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Systems Co Ltd (272210 KS)</a> will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>The constituent change, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 3.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$437m.</li>
<li>Inflows to the tracking ETF have slowed down but there could be more inflows after a period of consolidation in the underlying stocks.</li>
</ul>



Hanwha Systems Co Ltd (272210 KS) will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index at the close on 19 September.
The constituent change, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 3.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$437m.
Inflows to the tracking ETF have slowed down but there could be more inflows after a period of consolidation in the underlying stocks.


MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: Hanwha Systems Added as Stocks Play Offence

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>12 months on from the Tender Offer which changed the shape of the shareholder register, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> is up small and its main asset Cellebrite is -10%.</li>
<li>The value of the rest of Sun Corp has probably increased to cover that 10% through new business earnings, but the main value is still Cellebrite. An exit still awaited.</li>
<li>Now Cellebrite is lower, and SunCorp is lower (but recently rising) and SunCorp has announced a buyback which accounts for a big chunk of Real World Float. Hmmm...</li>
</ul>


12 months on from the Tender Offer which changed the shape of the shareholder register, Sun Corp (6736 JP) is up small and its main asset Cellebrite is -10%.
The value of the rest of Sun Corp has probably increased to cover that 10% through new business earnings, but the main value is still Cellebrite. An exit still awaited.
Now Cellebrite is lower, and SunCorp is lower (but recently rising) and SunCorp has announced a buyback which accounts for a big chunk of Real World Float. Hmmm...


Sun Corp (6736) - CLBT Has Round-Tripped, But Now Better ParentCo and a Buyback so Set-Up Is Better

<ul>
<li>There are 3 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> in September. There are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index too.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade is US$19.6bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinhood-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33532:1" rel="noopener">Robinhood Markets (HOOD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trade-desk-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26467:1" rel="noopener">Trade Desk (TTD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA (NVDA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft (MSFT US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chevron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11091:1" rel="noopener">Chevron (CVX)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 constituent changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in September. There are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index too.
The round-trip trade is US$19.6bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US). 
The largest flows are expected in AppLovin (APP), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Trade Desk (TTD), NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT US), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Various prior leadership areas from the April lows appear ready to continue higher following 1+ month consolidations. IGV, PLTR, APP, SOUN, RZLV, SHOP, FROG, U, CDNS, RDDT, JMIA, RR, Z,HIMS,MU,GRAL</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Short-Term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.
Various prior leadership areas from the April lows appear ready to continue higher following 1+ month consolidations. IGV, PLTR, APP, SOUN, RZLV, SHOP, FROG, U, CDNS, RDDT, JMIA, RR, Z,HIMS,MU,GRAL


Downgrading Utilities to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Prior Leadership to Shine?

United States

Palantir Technologies Inc. develops software to analyze information. The Company offers solutions support many kinds of data including structured, unstructured, relational, temporal, and geospatial. Palantir Technologies serves customers worldwide.

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Palantir Technologies (PLTR US)

Michael Burry's Uber Bearish Positions in Palantir and Nvidia

In the past several days, one of the biggest news splash in the global financial markets has been Michael Burry taking huge bearish positions on...

Douglas Kim

MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: Hanwha Systems Added as Stocks Play Offence

Hanwha Systems will be added to the index. One-way turnover is 3.1% and the round-trip trade is US$437m. Most stocks are at or near new highs and...

Brian Freitas

Sun Corp (6736) - CLBT Has Round-Tripped, But Now Better ParentCo and a Buyback so Set-Up Is Better

Since I wrote 3 weeks ago, CLBT is up 20%, Sun Corp is up 10%, the discount is wider. US domestic political stress will only increase the demand...

Travis Lundy

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Constituent changes to the S&P500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$19.6bn. AppLovin, Robinhood and Emcor will have more...

Brian Freitas

Downgrading Utilities to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Prior Leadership to Shine?

Downgrading Utilities $XLU to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Time for Prior Leadership to Shine? $IGV $PLTR $APP $SOUN $RZLV $SHOP $FROG $U...

Vermilion Research

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