Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has reported that its shareholders approved the proposed share issue to acquire all outstanding Yamana Gold shares as part of its recently announced plan of arrangement to buy all non-Canadian assets of Yamana. At the same time, Yamana shareholders voted in favour of the special resolution approving the acquisition by PAAS of all the issued and outstanding shares in the company following the sale of all Canadian assets to Agnico Eagle. The transaction is expected to be completed in Q123 subject to receiving a number of regulatory approvals.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has reported that its shareholders approved the proposed share issue to acquire all outstanding Yamana Gold shares as part of its recently announced plan of arrangement to buy all non-Canadian assets of Yamana. At the same time, Yamana shareholders voted in favour of the special resolution approving the acquisition by PAAS of all the issued and outstanding shares in the company following the sale of all Canadian assets to Agnico Eagle. The transaction is expected to be completed in Q123 subject to receiving a number of regulatory approvals.

Pan American Silver - Shareholders approve Yamana transaction

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has reported preliminary operational results for FY22. Consolidated silver and gold production of 18.5Moz and 552.5koz were within the earlier guidance ranges (previously revised for silver). PAAS continues to progress its recently announced plan of arrangement to buy all non-Canadian assets of Yamana Gold. Shareholder votes for both companies are scheduled for 31 January, while the leading proxy advisors ISS and Glass Lewis have recommended PAAS shareholders to vote in favor of the proposed share issue to acquire all outstanding Yamana shares. We put our forecasts and valuation of PAAS under review pending upcoming shareholder approvals of the deal, which we believe could be an important catalyst for the stock.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has reported preliminary operational results for FY22. Consolidated silver and gold production of 18.5Moz and 552.5koz were within the earlier guidance ranges (previously revised for silver). PAAS continues to progress its recently announced plan of arrangement to buy all non-Canadian assets of Yamana Gold. Shareholder votes for both companies are scheduled for 31 January, while the leading proxy advisors ISS and Glass Lewis have recommended PAAS shareholders to vote in favor of the proposed share issue to acquire all outstanding Yamana shares. We put our forecasts and valuation of PAAS under review pending upcoming shareholder approvals of the deal, which we believe could be an important catalyst for the stock.

Pan American Silver - Proxy advisors support Yamana vote

Weaker commodity prices and unabating cost pressures continued to supress Pan American Silver’s (PAAS’s) performance in Q322. However, at the top line, these were largely offset by higher gold sales, while lower inventory adjustments and other operating costs resulted in a 90% q-o-q boost in EBITDA. That said, the Q3 results were clearly overshadowed by PAAS’s joint bid to acquire Yamana Gold for c US$4.8bn. Contingent on shareholder approvals, the deal will be transformational for PAAS, adding four large-scale and low-cost producing silver and gold projects in Latin America and more than doubling its annual EBITDA.

Weaker commodity prices and unabating cost pressures continued to supress Pan American Silver’s (PAAS’s) performance in Q322. However, at the top line, these were largely offset by higher gold sales, while lower inventory adjustments and other operating costs resulted in a 90% q-o-q boost in EBITDA. That said, the Q3 results were clearly overshadowed by PAAS’s joint bid to acquire Yamana Gold for c US$4.8bn. Contingent on shareholder approvals, the deal will be transformational for PAAS, adding four large-scale and low-cost producing silver and gold projects in Latin America and more than doubling its annual EBITDA. 

Pan American Silver - Yamana bid overshadows Q322 results

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has upgraded its total mineral resources estimate at the La Colorada Skarn project to 227Moz in contained Ag from 141Moz (albeit at a lower silver grade), promoting a significant part of the resource into the indicated category. Despite the slight net positive effect of the resource upgrade on the valuation, we maintain our combined value of PAAS at US$27.5/share against the current backdrop of heightened commodity price volatility. While the silver price appears well supported at the current levels, gold remains under pressure due to the current environment of aggressive interest rate hikes.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has upgraded its total mineral resources estimate at the La Colorada Skarn project to 227Moz in contained Ag from 141Moz (albeit at a lower silver grade), promoting a significant part of the resource into the indicated category. Despite the slight net positive effect of the resource upgrade on the valuation, we maintain our combined value of PAAS at US$27.5/share against the current backdrop of heightened commodity price volatility. While the silver price appears well supported at the current levels, gold remains under pressure due to the current environment of aggressive interest rate hikes.

Pan American Silver - Significant resources upgrade at Skarn

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-panther-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27466:1" rel="noopener">Great Panther (GPL US)</a> is a deletion from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a>. There are a lot of float changes that will result in passive flows.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 3.4% and will result in a one-way trade of US$106m at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Most index constituents have traded poorly over the last few months and the stocks with passive inflows could outperform their peers in the short-term.</li>
</ul>



Great Panther (GPL US) is a deletion from the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US). There are a lot of float changes that will result in passive flows.
One way turnover is estimated at 3.4% and will result in a one-way trade of US$106m at the September rebalance.
Most index constituents have traded poorly over the last few months and the stocks with passive inflows could outperform their peers in the short-term.


MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: One Delete & Plenty of Float Changes

Canada

Pan American Silver Corporation is a primary silver producer.   The Company has seven operating mines in Mexico,  Peru, Argentina and Bolivia and several development projects in USA,  Mexico, Peru and Argentina.

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Pan American Silver (PAAS CN)

Pan American Silver - Shareholders approve Yamana transaction

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has reported that its shareholders approved the proposed share issue to acquire all outstanding Yamana Gold shares as...

Edison Investment Research

Pan American Silver - Proxy advisors support Yamana vote

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has reported preliminary operational results for FY22. Consolidated silver and gold production of 18.5Moz and 552.5koz...

Edison Investment Research

Pan American Silver - Yamana bid overshadows Q322 results

Weaker commodity prices and unabating cost pressures continued to supress Pan American Silver’s (PAAS’s) performance in Q322. However, at the top...

Edison Investment Research

Pan American Silver - Significant resources upgrade at Skarn

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has upgraded its total mineral resources estimate at the La Colorada Skarn project to 227Moz in contained Ag from 141Moz...

Edison Investment Research

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: One Delete & Plenty of Float Changes

There is only one deletion but there are a lot of stocks with free float changes. Estimated one way turnover is 3.4% resulting in a one-way trade...

Brian Freitas

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