Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The January 2023 TOPIX FFW Trade was announced today. The two-way trade is worth about ¥325bn. </li>
<li>There are four ADDs previously discussed: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36668:1" rel="noopener">Sun* (4053 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/appier-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32165:1" rel="noopener">Appier Group (4180 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chubu-steel-plate-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18535:1" rel="noopener">Chubu Steel Plate (5461 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chubu-steel-plate-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18535:1" rel="noopener">Chubu Steel Plate (5461 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>There are 57 downweights, 11 upweights (but only seven FFW buys). The rest is reverse funding to buy. There are 10 names with &gt;$10mm AND &gt;3 days ADV to sell.</li>
</ul>


The January 2023 TOPIX FFW Trade was announced today. The two-way trade is worth about ¥325bn. 
There are four ADDs previously discussed: Sun* (4053 JP), Appier Group (4180 JP), Chubu Steel Plate (5461 JP), and Chubu Steel Plate (5461 JP). 
There are 57 downweights, 11 upweights (but only seven FFW buys). The rest is reverse funding to buy. There are 10 names with &gt;$10mm AND &gt;3 days ADV to sell.


January TOPIX FFW Review - Some Big Sells

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The long awaited lifting of restrictions on inbound tourists in October seems to have given new confidence to domestic tourists too.</li>
<li>Major airlines, hotels and railways are all reporting a significant uplift in bookings with several forecasting that figures will exceed 2019 by March next year.</li>
<li>Retailers have benefitted too, notably department stores and lifestyle retailers. Now all Japan needs is for Chinese tourists to be allowed out.</li>
</ul>


The long awaited lifting of restrictions on inbound tourists in October seems to have given new confidence to domestic tourists too.
Major airlines, hotels and railways are all reporting a significant uplift in bookings with several forecasting that figures will exceed 2019 by March next year.
Retailers have benefitted too, notably department stores and lifestyle retailers. Now all Japan needs is for Chinese tourists to be allowed out.


Japan's Retailers, Hotels, Carriers Rejoice: Domestic Tourism Surges and Inbound Traffic Rises

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Retail stocks perform well again as China relaxes restrictions on domestic travel</li>
<li>However, it could take a couple of years for international travel to return to previous levels</li>
<li>We believe that most of the catalysts for our bullish stance on this macro call have now played out</li>
</ul>


Retail stocks perform well again as China relaxes restrictions on domestic travel
However, it could take a couple of years for international travel to return to previous levels
We believe that most of the catalysts for our bullish stance on this macro call have now played out


Japan Weekly | Chinese Tourists Stay Close to Home

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-pacific-international-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1" rel="noopener">Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)</a>’s 1QFY23 was broadly in line with consensus estimates with revenue and OP of ¥473.7bn (consensus: ¥473.8bn) and ¥23.9bn (consensus: ¥23.8bn) respectively.</li>
<li>Personal brands growth and Asia expansion are driving up PPIH’s margins while most companies in the consumer sphere are failing to pass down cost inflation.</li>
<li>With signs of OP moving to the pre-UNY acquisition level, we think that there’s an upside to the company’s medium-term guidance and consensus.</li>
</ul>



Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)’s 1QFY23 was broadly in line with consensus estimates with revenue and OP of ¥473.7bn (consensus: ¥473.8bn) and ¥23.9bn (consensus: ¥23.8bn) respectively.
Personal brands growth and Asia expansion are driving up PPIH’s margins while most companies in the consumer sphere are failing to pass down cost inflation.
With signs of OP moving to the pre-UNY acquisition level, we think that there’s an upside to the company’s medium-term guidance and consensus.


PPIH: Combating Cost Inflation Through Personal Brands Growth

<ul>
<li>After beating the Q4 consensus OP by more than 26%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-pacific-international-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1" rel="noopener">Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)</a>’s share price has bounced back towards the mid-point of its long-term trend channel.</li>
<li>With inbound demand set to return to further boost PPIH’s profitability, we are expecting additional upside to consensus FY23 OP, which is based on conservative company guidance.</li>
<li>Based on the FY+1 consensus OP to share price trend, our annual run-rate OP estimate of ¥160bn suggests that there could be an additional 50% upside to Pan Pacific International.</li>
</ul>


After beating the Q4 consensus OP by more than 26%, Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)’s share price has bounced back towards the mid-point of its long-term trend channel.
With inbound demand set to return to further boost PPIH’s profitability, we are expecting additional upside to consensus FY23 OP, which is based on conservative company guidance.
Based on the FY+1 consensus OP to share price trend, our annual run-rate OP estimate of ¥160bn suggests that there could be an additional 50% upside to Pan Pacific International.


PPIH – Inbound Demand & Personal Brands Growth Could Propel The Share Price Above ¥4,000

Japan

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation operates discount stores which sell consumer electronics, daily necessities, groceries, watches, and sporting goods. The Company mostly operates small scale stores based in Tokyo.

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

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Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

January TOPIX FFW Review - Some Big Sells

The TOPIX January 2023 FFW trade was announced today. 57 down-weights, 11 FFW up-weights. The Phased Weight Reduction has its second leg. Total to...

Travis Lundy

Japan's Retailers, Hotels, Carriers Rejoice: Domestic Tourism Surges and Inbound Traffic Rises

Tourism is back in Japan, both domestic and inbound. We outline some of the key beneficiaries and expectations for a return to 2019 levels by next...

Michael Causton

Japan Weekly | Chinese Tourists Stay Close to Home

The Japan Weekly discusses those stocks that have performed well (or not) over the past week. This time, we look at the strong performance of...

Mark Chadwick

PPIH: Combating Cost Inflation Through Personal Brands Growth

PPIH’s medium-term guidance of ¥120bn OP (6% OPM) in FY25 could be conservative, especially considering that there’s an additional upside to PPIH’s...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

January TOPIX FFW Review - Some Big Sells

The TOPIX January 2023 FFW trade was announced today. 57 down-weights, 11 FFW up-weights. The Phased Weight Reduction has its second leg. Total to...

Travis Lundy

Japan's Retailers, Hotels, Carriers Rejoice: Domestic Tourism Surges and Inbound Traffic Rises

Tourism is back in Japan, both domestic and inbound. We outline some of the key beneficiaries and expectations for a return to 2019 levels by next...

Michael Causton

Japan Weekly | Chinese Tourists Stay Close to Home

The Japan Weekly discusses those stocks that have performed well (or not) over the past week. This time, we look at the strong performance of...

Mark Chadwick

PPIH: Combating Cost Inflation Through Personal Brands Growth

PPIH’s medium-term guidance of ¥120bn OP (6% OPM) in FY25 could be conservative, especially considering that there’s an additional upside to PPIH’s...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

PPIH – Inbound Demand & Personal Brands Growth Could Propel The Share Price Above ¥4,000

With inbound demand set to return to further boost PPIH’s profitability, we are expecting additional upside to consensus FY23 OP, which is based on...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri