Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>JPMorgan is <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/minres-selling-14-5pc-of-azure-minerals-jpm-nabs-trade-20240221-p5f6ta" target="_blank" rel="noopener">placing</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">MinRes (MIN AU)</a>'s 14.5% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> at A$3.42/share, a 5% discount to last close and a 7.6% discount to the A$3.70/share Scheme price. </li>
<li>It was reported last month that MinRes, who paid up to ~A$4.00/share for some of its stake, was looking to exit. But cash now vs. ~8% more in two months?</li>
<li>Given the recent rout in lithium and nickel prices, one wonders if a MAC landmine lurks. Or, quite simply, MinRes just needs the cash. Expect Azure to fall tomorrow.</li>
</ul>


JPMorgan is placing MinRes (MIN AU)'s 14.5% stake in Azure Minerals (AZS AU) at A$3.42/share, a 5% discount to last close and a 7.6% discount to the A$3.70/share Scheme price. 
It was reported last month that MinRes, who paid up to ~A$4.00/share for some of its stake, was looking to exit. But cash now vs. ~8% more in two months?
Given the recent rout in lithium and nickel prices, one wonders if a MAC landmine lurks. Or, quite simply, MinRes just needs the cash. Expect Azure to fall tomorrow.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-trimegah-bangun-persada-tbk-harita-nickel" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36826:1" rel="noopener">PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ)</a> priced its IPO at IDR1,250 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$660 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/harita-nickel-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97906" rel="noopener">Harita Nickel IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/harita-nickel-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:98452" rel="noopener">Harita Nickel IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/harita-nickel-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:98558" rel="noopener">Harita Nickel IPO: Valuation Insights</a>.  </li>
<li>Peers have re-rated and the IPO price continues to imply a discount to the median peer CY2023 P/E multiple. Therefore, the IPO price remains attractive.</li>
</ul>



PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ) priced its IPO at IDR1,250 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$660 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.
We previously discussed the IPO in Harita Nickel IPO: The Bull Case, Harita Nickel IPO: The Bear Case and Harita Nickel IPO: Valuation Insights.  
Peers have re-rated and the IPO price continues to imply a discount to the median peer CY2023 P/E multiple. Therefore, the IPO price remains attractive.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)</a>’s Board has unanimously recommended Wyloo’s unconditional off-market takeover bid at A$1.40 per share. The offer price is final. </li>
<li>The Board has taken the path of least resistance by recommending the offer instead of rejecting the low-balled offer and addressing the production quality issues.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive in terms of multiples (EV/Resource and EV/Reserve) but at a discount to recent share prices and analyst price targets. Shares are trading in line with terms.</li>
</ul>



Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)’s Board has unanimously recommended Wyloo’s unconditional off-market takeover bid at A$1.40 per share. The offer price is final. 
The Board has taken the path of least resistance by recommending the offer instead of rejecting the low-balled offer and addressing the production quality issues.
The offer is attractive in terms of multiples (EV/Resource and EV/Reserve) but at a discount to recent share prices and analyst price targets. Shares are trading in line with terms.


Mincor Resources (MCR AU): Production Issues Result in the Board Succumbing to Wyloo’s Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-trimegah-bangun-persada-tbk-harita-nickel" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36826:1" rel="noopener">PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ)</a>, an Indonesian nickel play, has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$1 billion. Book building ends on 24 March.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/harita-nickel-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97906" rel="noopener">Harita Nickel IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/harita-nickel-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:98452" rel="noopener">Harita Nickel IPO: The Bear Case</a>.  </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Harita is fairly valued at the IPO IPO price range of IDR1,220-1,250 per share. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ), an Indonesian nickel play, has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$1 billion. Book building ends on 24 March.
We previously discussed the IPO in Harita Nickel IPO: The Bull Case and Harita Nickel IPO: The Bear Case.  
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Harita is fairly valued at the IPO IPO price range of IDR1,220-1,250 per share. We would participate in the IPO.


<ul>
<li>Wyloo has launched an unconditional off-market takeover bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)</a> at A$1.40 per share, a 34.6% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer opens 5 April.</li>
<li>In certain aspects the offer is attractive. The offer values Mincor at a premium to peer and precedent transaction EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples.</li>
<li>However, the offer is at a discount to recent share prices and price targets. Rival bidders (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO Ltd (IGO AU)</a>) could also emerge. </li>
</ul>


Wyloo has launched an unconditional off-market takeover bid for Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU) at A$1.40 per share, a 34.6% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer opens 5 April.
In certain aspects the offer is attractive. The offer values Mincor at a premium to peer and precedent transaction EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples.
However, the offer is at a discount to recent share prices and price targets. Rival bidders (BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) or IGO Ltd (IGO AU)) could also emerge. 


Mincor Resources (MCR AU): Wyloo’s A$1.40 Unconditional Takeover Offer

Australia

Panoramic Resources Limited is a mining company that explores for and mines copper, nickel, and cobalt in the Kimberley region of Western Australia.

Panoramic Resources (PAN AU)

Azure (AZS AU): MinRes' Discounted Exit

Azure will fall tomorrow - early investors will take money off the table given this development. But this deal still looks done. Perhaps more so...

David Blennerhassett

Harita Nickel IPO: Trading Debut

Peers have re-rated and the IPO price continues to imply a discount to the median peer CY2023 P/E multiple. Therefore, the IPO price remains...

Arun George

Mincor Resources (MCR AU): Production Issues Result in the Board Succumbing to Wyloo’s Offer

The Board has taken the path of least resistance by recommending the offer instead of rejecting the low-balled offer and addressing the production...

Arun George

Harita Nickel IPO: Valuation Insights

Our analysis suggests that Harita is fairly valued at the IPO IPO price range of IDR1,220-1,250 per share. We would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

Mincor Resources (MCR AU): Wyloo’s A$1.40 Unconditional Takeover Offer

The offer is light compared to recent share prices and analyst price targets. Expect the Board to reject. The offer could also draw out rival bidders.

Arun George