Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The rig contract in EG has been terminated by Trident Energy (the operator) on safety concerns with the Blow Out Preventers not working properly.</li>
<li>We understand that there are suitable rig(s) available that are being considered as potential alternatives.</li>
<li>The three well drilling campaign (followed by the drilling of the high impact Akeng Deep prospect) could restart during 2Q24 (subject to an alternative rig being secured).</li>
</ul>


The rig contract in EG has been terminated by Trident Energy (the operator) on safety concerns with the Blow Out Preventers not working properly.
We understand that there are suitable rig(s) available that are being considered as potential alternatives.
The three well drilling campaign (followed by the drilling of the high impact Akeng Deep prospect) could restart during 2Q24 (subject to an alternative rig being secured).


Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Rig contract terminated in EG: Inconsequential blip

<ul>
<li>ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.65 per share: Drilling rig on location of high impact well by the end of January – A rig is expected to be mobilised to the high impact Welchau-1 drilling location during the last week of January.</li>
<li>The total vertical depth of the well is only 1,800 m with a dry hole cost estimated at ~EUR5.1 mm.</li>
<li>BW Energy (BWE NO): BW Offshore sells interests in BW Energy to BW Group – BW Offshore will sell 58,111,461 (22.52%) shares in BW Energy to BW Group at a price of NOK32 per share, resulting in total proceeds ~US$176 mm.</li>
</ul>


ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.65 per share: Drilling rig on location of high impact well by the end of January – A rig is expected to be mobilised to the high impact Welchau-1 drilling location during the last week of January.
The total vertical depth of the well is only 1,800 m with a dry hole cost estimated at ~EUR5.1 mm.
BW Energy (BWE NO): BW Offshore sells interests in BW Energy to BW Group – BW Offshore will sell 58,111,461 (22.52%) shares in BW Energy to BW Group at a price of NOK32 per share, resulting in total proceeds ~US$176 mm.


<ul>
<li>FY23 production was ~8.5 mbbl/d, implying ~9.5-9.7 mbbl/d in 4Q23. </li>
<li>The electrical issue at the ESPs on Dussafu has not been fully resolved and continues to negatively impact gross production.</li>
<li>Valuation We are now forecasting US$85.5/bbl for Brent in 2024 (US$90/bbl previously) and we have paired back our FY24 production forecast from ~13.4 mbbl/d to 12.7 mbbl/d.</li>
</ul>


FY23 production was ~8.5 mbbl/d, implying ~9.5-9.7 mbbl/d in 4Q23. 
The electrical issue at the ESPs on Dussafu has not been fully resolved and continues to negatively impact gross production.
Valuation We are now forecasting US$85.5/bbl for Brent in 2024 (US$90/bbl previously) and we have paired back our FY24 production forecast from ~13.4 mbbl/d to 12.7 mbbl/d.


Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): ~45% production growth in 2024

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ADX Energy (ADX AU) C ; target price of A$0.65 per share: Closing new farm-out transaction with MND/Amendment of agreement for Welchau farmout – The farm-out of 50% economic interest in a part of the ADX-AT-I licence has been completed and ADX has received EUR0.45 mm from MND for back costs payments. MND will fund EUR4.5 mm for exploration drilling.</li>
<li>ADX and MND currently intend to drill either the LICHT or the IRR gas exploration prospect during 2H24.</li>
<li>ADX also announced that the farm-out agreement with MCF Energy regarding Welchau has been amended. </li>
</ul>


ADX Energy (ADX AU) C ; target price of A$0.65 per share: Closing new farm-out transaction with MND/Amendment of agreement for Welchau farmout – The farm-out of 50% economic interest in a part of the ADX-AT-I licence has been completed and ADX has received EUR0.45 mm from MND for back costs payments. MND will fund EUR4.5 mm for exploration drilling.
ADX and MND currently intend to drill either the LICHT or the IRR gas exploration prospect during 2H24.
ADX also announced that the farm-out agreement with MCF Energy regarding Welchau has been amended. 


<ul><li>• 3Q23 production of ~10 mbbl/d was slightly ahead of our expectations given a strong performance in Tunisia (2.3 mbbl/d vs our expectations of 2.1 mbbl/d).</li><li>It has therefore been decided to pull out the completions at these two wells to address the ESPs issues. • 4Q23 gross production at Dussafu is expected to average 25-30 mbbl/d.</li></ul>

• 3Q23 production of ~10 mbbl/d was slightly ahead of our expectations given a strong performance in Tunisia (2.3 mbbl/d vs our expectations of 2.1 mbbl/d).It has therefore been decided to pull out the completions at these two wells to address the ESPs issues. • 4Q23 gross production at Dussafu is expected to average 25-30 mbbl/d.

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Production affected by short term ESPs issues. Adding reserves and exploration upside

Norway

Panoro Energy ASA explores for oil and natural gas in Brazil, Gabon, and Nigeria . The Company operates offshore in the Camamu-Almada and Santos basins.

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Panoro Energy ASA (PEN NO)

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Rig contract terminated in EG: Inconsequential blip

The rig contract in EG has been terminated by Trident Energy (the operator) on safety concerns with the Blow Out Preventers not working properly.

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 26/01/2024

ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.65 per share: Drilling rig on location of high impact well by the end of January

Auctus Advisors

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): ~45% production growth in 2024

FY23 production was ~8.5 mbbl/d, implying ~9.5-9.7 mbbl/d in 4Q23. The electrical issue at the ESPs on Dussafu has not been fully resolved and...

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 12/01/2024

ADX Energy (ADX AU) C ; target price of A$0.65 per share: Closing new farm-out transaction with MND/Amendment of agreement for Welchau farmout

Auctus Advisors

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Production affected by short term ESPs issues. Adding reserves and exploration upside

• 3Q23 production of ~10 mbbl/d was slightly ahead of our expectations given a strong performance in Tunisia (2.3 mbbl/d vs our expectations of...

Auctus Advisors

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