Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite its recent partnership with Amazon, we believe the negatives outweigh positives for Affirm Holdings. As such, we expect further downside risk for Affirm in the next 6-12 months.</li>
<li>Key risk factors for Affirm include slowdown in growth rate of e-commerce, over reliance on Peloton, and the addictive consumption pattern of paying for items one cannot afford.  </li>
<li>The valuations of Affirm Holdings appear to be overvalued as compared to its peers. An additional 30% downside from current levels would be about $77 per share for Affirm Holdings. </li>
</ul>


Despite its recent partnership with Amazon, we believe the negatives outweigh positives for Affirm Holdings. As such, we expect further downside risk for Affirm in the next 6-12 months.
Key risk factors for Affirm include slowdown in growth rate of e-commerce, over reliance on Peloton, and the addictive consumption pattern of paying for items one cannot afford.  
The valuations of Affirm Holdings appear to be overvalued as compared to its peers. An additional 30% downside from current levels would be about $77 per share for Affirm Holdings. 


Affirm Holdings - Addictive BNPL Could Backfire in 2022

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.</li>
<li>In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO.
As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.
In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Net Protections IPO Trading - Peers Have Moved Lower. Provides the Only Exposure to BNPL in Japan

Insurance & Central Asia-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Insurance & Central Asia-focused Analyst

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase (COIN US)</a> has significant growth potential in non-transaction revenue with its crypto platform strategy and various initiatives underway.</li>
<li>This would also help the company move away from competing just on fees in the long run, although fee compression is unlikely to materialize in the medium term.</li>
<li>Using P/S ignores the company's profitability. On a P/E basis, the company's valuation looks reasonable compared to other major Fintech/payments peers.  </li>
</ul>



Coinbase (COIN US) has significant growth potential in non-transaction revenue with its crypto platform strategy and various initiatives underway.
This would also help the company move away from competing just on fees in the long run, although fee compression is unlikely to materialize in the medium term.
Using P/S ignores the company's profitability. On a P/E basis, the company's valuation looks reasonable compared to other major Fintech/payments peers.  


2022 High Conviction: Coinbase Is More Than Trading Coins

<ul>
<li>Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, aims to raise up to US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.</li>
<li>In this note we will talk about the IPO valuation.</li>
</ul>


Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, aims to raise up to US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO.
As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.
In this note we will talk about the IPO valuation.


Net Protections Holdings IPO - Needs a Bit of Hope and Belief

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<ul>
<li>
Long Arm of the Law: Mainland China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (“MIIT”) has ordered a temporary suspension of updates to apps from November 24, 2021;</li>
<li>
Follow-Up To Other Violations: The temporary suspension come as Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [“Tencent”] was found violating user data security laws on nine apps under the Information Protection Law; and</li>
<li>
Financial Holdco May Be a Forced Issue Too: The long arm of the CBIRC will grab Tencent. The more its relies on Fintech, the more alarming financial regulatory concerns.  </li>
</ul>



Long Arm of the Law: Mainland China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (“MIIT”) has ordered a temporary suspension of updates to apps from November 24, 2021;

Follow-Up To Other Violations: The temporary suspension come as Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [“Tencent”] was found violating user data security laws on nine apps under the Information Protection Law; and

Financial Holdco May Be a Forced Issue Too: The long arm of the CBIRC will grab Tencent. The more its relies on Fintech, the more alarming financial regulatory concerns.  


United States

PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates as a technology platform company that enables digital and mobile payments on behalf of consumers and merchants. The Company offers online payment solutions. PayPal Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Paypal Holdings (PYPL US)

Affirm Holdings - Addictive BNPL Could Backfire in 2022

Key risk factors for Affirm include slowdown in growth rate of e-commerce, over reliance on Peloton, and the addictive consumption pattern of...

Douglas Kim

Net Protections IPO Trading - Peers Have Moved Lower. Provides the Only Exposure to BNPL in Japan

Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we will talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

2022 High Conviction: Coinbase Is More Than Trading Coins

The fast development in the broader crypto economy could present significant growth potential to Coinbase (non-transaction revenue). This will...

Alec Tseung

Net Protections Holdings IPO - Needs a Bit of Hope and Belief

Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, aims to raise up to US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares...

Sumeet Singh

Tencent Holdings – Regulatory Squeeze

TENCENT: Long Arm of the Law: Mainland China’s MIIT has ordered a temporary suspension of updates to apps from November 24, 2021. This is not...

Thomas J. Monaco

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