Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>It is reported that Life Insurance industry is evaluating a shift away from traditional front-loaded commissions toward a deferred commission structure.</li>
<li>Moreover, IRDAI has intensified oversight of distribution expenses and management costs in the general and health insurance segments and looks to lower the EoM cap for the insurers.</li>
<li>These changes if considered, could pose meaningful near-term growth and margin headwinds for PB Fintech or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pb-fintech-limited-policybazaar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33470:1" rel="noopener">Policybazaar (POLICYBZ IN)</a>, which is already under pressure from the GST rate cuts.</li>
</ul>


It is reported that Life Insurance industry is evaluating a shift away from traditional front-loaded commissions toward a deferred commission structure.
Moreover, IRDAI has intensified oversight of distribution expenses and management costs in the general and health insurance segments and looks to lower the EoM cap for the insurers.
These changes if considered, could pose meaningful near-term growth and margin headwinds for PB Fintech or Policybazaar (POLICYBZ IN), which is already under pressure from the GST rate cuts.


<ul>
<li>GST removal on life and health insurance eliminates insurers’ input tax credit, forcing them to cut agent-commissions, severely hurting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pb-fintech-limited-policybazaar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33470:1" rel="noopener">Policybazaar (POLICYBZ IN)</a> , whose 68% revenue depends on these segments.</li>
<li>PB Fintech could have faced revenue losses upto 4.4% and 65.7% Adj. EBITDA hit if it fully absorbs GST; even 50% absorption cuts Adj.EBITDA by ~35%, based on FY25 numbers.</li>
<li>Moreover, trail revenues, mainly from health insurance, could shrink sharply, threatening PB Fintech’s high-margin revenue stream and delaying its INR 10 bn profit target beyond FY27.</li>
</ul>


GST removal on life and health insurance eliminates insurers’ input tax credit, forcing them to cut agent-commissions, severely hurting Policybazaar (POLICYBZ IN) , whose 68% revenue depends on these segments.
PB Fintech could have faced revenue losses upto 4.4% and 65.7% Adj. EBITDA hit if it fully absorbs GST; even 50% absorption cuts Adj.EBITDA by ~35%, based on FY25 numbers.
Moreover, trail revenues, mainly from health insurance, could shrink sharply, threatening PB Fintech’s high-margin revenue stream and delaying its INR 10 bn profit target beyond FY27.


PB Fintech Ltd- When Zero GST Turns Costly

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vodafone-idea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15678:1" rel="noopener">Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN)</a> plans to raise around US$2.2bn via a follow-on public offering.</li>
<li>The deal has been in the works for years and proceeds will be used for capex and short-term debt repayment.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN) plans to raise around US$2.2bn via a follow-on public offering.
The deal has been in the works for years and proceeds will be used for capex and short-term debt repayment.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.


Vodafone Idea Placement - Very Well Flagged but Its Not Going to Fix a Whole Lot of Issues

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In Aug 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> completed the acquisition of 91% of Blinkit’s outstanding shares via issuing its own shares. These shares were released from their lockup in Aug 2023.</li>
<li>Leading to a selldown by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> in the same month, followed by another selldown in Oct 2023. Softbank will once again be released from its lockup soon.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.</li>
</ul>


In Aug 2022, Zomato (ZOMATO IN) completed the acquisition of 91% of Blinkit’s outstanding shares via issuing its own shares. These shares were released from their lockup in Aug 2023.
Leading to a selldown by Softbank Group (9984 JP) in the same month, followed by another selldown in Oct 2023. Softbank will once again be released from its lockup soon.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.


Zomato Lock-Up - Last of the Softbank Selldown

<ul>
<li>Tencent has been busy distributing shares in some of its investments over the past two years, with JD.com’s distribution announced in 2021 and Meituan’s in 2022.</li>
<li>In our earlier note in 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-investee-selldown-the-us-120bn-global-overhang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:81153" rel="noopener">Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang</a>, we had looked at its overall investment portfolio.</li>
<li>With two of its large investments spun-out, we now re-look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how. </li>
</ul>


Tencent has been busy distributing shares in some of its investments over the past two years, with JD.com’s distribution announced in 2021 and Meituan’s in 2022.
In our earlier note in 2022, Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang, we had looked at its overall investment portfolio.
With two of its large investments spun-out, we now re-look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how. 


Tencent Investee Selldown - JD.com Done, Meituan Done, Two More Still Left

India

PB Fintech Limited doing business as PolicyBazaar, develops and publishes an online financial services platform. The Company offers a consumer centric platform by partnering with financial services companies such as insurance companies to enhance their platform from a consumer e-commerce perspective.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Policybazaar (POLICYBZ IN)

PB Fintech- Timing Shock Ahead?

Life insurance industry may shift to deferred commission structure, IRDAI tightening oversight on expenses could impact growth and margins for PB...

Nitin Mangal

PB Fintech Ltd- When Zero GST Turns Costly

GST removal on life and health insurance hits Policybazaar hard, forcing cuts in agent-commissions and threatening high-margin revenue streams,...

Nitin Mangal

Vodafone Idea Placement - Very Well Flagged but Its Not Going to Fix a Whole Lot of Issues

Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN) plans to raise around US$2.2bn via a follow-on public offering. In this note, we talk about the deal dyanmics.

Sumeet Singh

Zomato Lock-Up - Last of the Softbank Selldown

In Aug 2022, Zomato completed the acquisition of 91% of Blinkit’s outstanding shares via issuing its own shares. This has led to two earlier...

Sumeet Singh

Tencent Investee Selldown - JD.com Done, Meituan Done, Two More Still Left

Tencent has been distributing shares in some of its investments over the past two years. In this note, we look at which of its remaining investee...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

PB Fintech- Timing Shock Ahead?

​Life insurance industry may shift to deferred commission structure, IRDAI tightening oversight on expenses could impact growth and margins for PB...

Nitin Mangal

PB Fintech Ltd- When Zero GST Turns Costly

​GST removal on life and health insurance hits Policybazaar hard, forcing cuts in agent-commissions and threatening high-margin revenue streams,...

Nitin Mangal

Vodafone Idea Placement - Very Well Flagged but Its Not Going to Fix a Whole Lot of Issues

Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN) plans to raise around US$2.2bn via a follow-on public offering. In this note, we talk about the deal dyanmics.

Sumeet Singh

Zomato Lock-Up - Last of the Softbank Selldown

In Aug 2022, Zomato completed the acquisition of 91% of Blinkit’s outstanding shares via issuing its own shares. This has led to two earlier...

Sumeet Singh

Tencent Investee Selldown - JD.com Done, Meituan Done, Two More Still Left

Tencent has been distributing shares in some of its investments over the past two years. In this note, we look at which of its remaining investee...

Sumeet Singh

Life insurance industry may shift to deferred commission structure, IRDAI tightening oversight on expenses could impact growth and margins for PB...

GST removal on life and health insurance hits Policybazaar hard, forcing cuts in agent-commissions and threatening high-margin revenue streams,...