Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..</li>
<li>... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..
... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.
Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond


Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. </li>
<li>Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).</li>
<li>Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. 
Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).
Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials


MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. </li>
<li>While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. 
While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.
Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.


MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Juniper Green Energy Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/juniper-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45455:1" rel="noopener">Juniper Green Energy Ltd (1831458D IN) </a>raised about US$187m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>Juniper Green Energy Limited (JGEL) is an independent power producer (IPP) engaged in the development, construction, operation, and maintenance of utility-scale renewable energy projects.</li>
<li>We have looked at the past performance and valuations in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Juniper Green Energy Ltd (1831458D IN) raised about US$187m in its India IPO.
Juniper Green Energy Limited (JGEL) is an independent power producer (IPP) engaged in the development, construction, operation, and maintenance of utility-scale renewable energy projects.
We have looked at the past performance and valuations in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Aequitas: Juniper Green Energy IPO Trading - Subdued Demand

Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) / Equity Capital Markets

Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) (7535956Z IN)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-coking-coal-limited-bccl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45272:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) (7535956Z IN)</a> raised about US$119m in its India IPO in Jan 2026. The lockup on its promoter, Coal India is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>BCCL is a Coal India subsidiary engaged in mining of coking coal, producing grades of coking coal, non-coking coal, and washed coal, primarily for use in steel and power sectors.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) (7535956Z IN) raised about US$119m in its India IPO in Jan 2026. The lockup on its promoter, Coal India is set to expire soon.
BCCL is a Coal India subsidiary engaged in mining of coking coal, producing grades of coking coal, non-coking coal, and washed coal, primarily for use in steel and power sectors.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: Bharat Coking Coal Ltd IPO Lockup - US$1.3bn Lockup Release; Near-Term Selldown Unlikely

India

PB Fintech is the parent company of India's leading online financial services platforms, Policybazaar and Paisabazaar. The company operates as a digital marketplace aggregator, connecting consumers with insurance and lending partners, and offers insurance and credit products through its platforms. It was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Gurugram, India.

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PB Fintech (POLICYBZ IN)

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

MSCI $ACWI Bullish Above $93, inverse head-and-shoulders breakout targets $110; EURO $STOXX 50 Holding At the Uptrend; Buys in Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Aequitas: Juniper Green Energy IPO Trading - Subdued Demand

Juniper Green Energy Ltd (JGEL) raised about US$187m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about the demand and the trading dynamics.

Akshat Shah

Aequitas: Bharat Coking Coal Ltd IPO Lockup - US$1.3bn Lockup Release; Near-Term Selldown Unlikely

Bharat Coking Coal Ltd (BCCL) raised about US$119m in its India IPO in Jan 2026. The lockup on its promoter, Coal India is set to expire soon.

Akshat Shah

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