Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pc-partner-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8492:1" rel="noopener">PC Partner (1263 HK)</a> is gunning for new highs if it can sustain gains above the 5.0 direction pivot barrier. Near term strength is exhausting but a pullback sets up a fresh buying opportunity to firmly clear 5.0 and challenge the high at 7.40. Long call on December 8 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pc-partner-macro-bullish-wedge" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46126" rel="noopener">PC Partner Macro Bullish Wedge</a> has cleared some key levels and geared for further gains.8.80 is our new high projection.

PC Partner (1263 HK) is gunning for new highs if it can sustain gains above the 5.0 direction pivot barrier. Near term strength is exhausting but a pullback sets up a fresh buying opportunity to firmly clear 5.0 and challenge the high at 7.40. Long call on December 8 PC Partner Macro Bullish Wedge has cleared some key levels and geared for further gains.8.80 is our new high projection.

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pc-partner-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8492:1" rel="noopener">PC Partner (1263 HK)</a> has reached our 3 HKD Fair Value target set in September last year. When our insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pc-partner-poor-man-s-play-on-nvidia-part-2-trades-at-2x-fy20-p-e-and-14-dividend-yield" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43227" rel="noopener">PC Partner: Poor-Man's Play on Nvidia  (Part 2); Trades at 2x FY20 P/E and 14% Dividend Yield</a> was published shares were trading around 1.66 HKD and skepticism around the company's prospects was high.Now that 3 HKD is in reach: where to from here?A preview before PC Partner FY20 results which will be out on 26 March 2021:<ul>
<li>Positive FY20 profit alert in the coming 30 days</li>
<li>FY20 earnings and revenue to meet consensus forecasts</li>
<li>0.22 HKD dividend for FY20</li>
<li>+/-20% upside to FY21 consensus as GPU tightness results in significant margin expansion</li>
<li>Crypto miners competing with historical GPU buyers (gaming, data, etc)</li>
<li>FY21 gross margins to improve from 9% in 1H20 to 12% in 1H21</li>
<li>Shortage of Nvidia and AMD GPU to last entire 1H21 = positive for pricing power</li>
<li>Fair Value raised to 4.5 HKD (55% upside)</li>
</ul>More details below...

PC Partner (1263 HK) has reached our 3 HKD Fair Value target set in September last year. When our insight PC Partner: Poor-Man's Play on Nvidia  (Part 2); Trades at 2x FY20 P/E and 14% Dividend Yield was published shares were trading around 1.66 HKD and skepticism around the company's prospects was high.Now that 3 HKD is in reach: where to from here?A preview before PC Partner FY20 results which will be out on 26 March 2021:
Positive FY20 profit alert in the coming 30 days
FY20 earnings and revenue to meet consensus forecasts
0.22 HKD dividend for FY20
+/-20% upside to FY21 consensus as GPU tightness results in significant margin expansion
Crypto miners competing with historical GPU buyers (gaming, data, etc)
FY21 gross margins to improve from 9% in 1H20 to 12% in 1H21
Shortage of Nvidia and AMD GPU to last entire 1H21 = positive for pricing power
Fair Value raised to 4.5 HKD (55% upside)
More details below...

Preview PC Partner FY20 Earnings + Outlook: Tight GPU Margin Gives FY21 Upside Potential

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pc-partner-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8492:1" rel="noopener">PC Partner (1263 HK)</a> exhibits a very bullish macro cycle forming as price action challenges the breakout point of the macro bull wedge that should shift the cycle and induce a higher trading range at a minimum and mark a significant cycle low at the lower 1.0 base zone.This is a value play that is about to see an acceleration.Price bull wedge and MACD macro trendline are key breakout points that will provide fuel and add to conviction.

PC Partner (1263 HK) exhibits a very bullish macro cycle forming as price action challenges the breakout point of the macro bull wedge that should shift the cycle and induce a higher trading range at a minimum and mark a significant cycle low at the lower 1.0 base zone.This is a value play that is about to see an acceleration.Price bull wedge and MACD macro trendline are key breakout points that will provide fuel and add to conviction.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pc-partner-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8492:1" rel="noopener">PC Partner (1263 HK)</a> is our way to buy into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) on the cheap.  Nothing has changed since our last insight to change our bullish stance.</a>Please see our insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pc-partner-poor-man-s-play-on-nvidia-part-2-trades-at-2x-fy20-p-e-and-14-dividend-yield" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43227" rel="noopener">PC Partner: Poor-Man's Play on Nvidia  (Part 2); Trades at 2x FY20 P/E and 14% Dividend Yield</a> Yesterday it was <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/21/paypal-gets-into-crypto-with-new-features-for-trading-and-shopping.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced that PayPa</a>l would start accepting Bitcoin's across its spectrum of services. Crypto watchers see this as a game-changer.<div class="content-highlight">One less discussed facet during our last Pc Partner insight was its correlation to Bitcoin. Bitcoin miners need a lot of GPU capacity. Bitcoin bull runs attract more miners which require more GPU. Bitcoin miners run their operations 24/7 meaning GPUs need to be replaced every 12 months. PC Partner benefits. Sometimes things do not have to be made more complex than they are.</div>If you can't buy Bitcoin directly, as you don't have a mandate, PC Partner is an indirect way to gain exposure via an Asian listed stock. During the last Bitcoin bull run (17,000 USD) PC Partner stock reached 7 HKD or +/- 300% higher vs today. Got Pc Partner yet?

PC Partner (1263 HK) is our way to buy into NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) on the cheap.  Nothing has changed since our last insight to change our bullish stance.Please see our insight PC Partner: Poor-Man's Play on Nvidia  (Part 2); Trades at 2x FY20 P/E and 14% Dividend Yield Yesterday it was announced that PayPal would start accepting Bitcoin's across its spectrum of services. Crypto watchers see this as a game-changer.One less discussed facet during our last Pc Partner insight was its correlation to Bitcoin. Bitcoin miners need a lot of GPU capacity. Bitcoin bull runs attract more miners which require more GPU. Bitcoin miners run their operations 24/7 meaning GPUs need to be replaced every 12 months. PC Partner benefits. Sometimes things do not have to be made more complex than they are.If you can't buy Bitcoin directly, as you don't have a mandate, PC Partner is an indirect way to gain exposure via an Asian listed stock. During the last Bitcoin bull run (17,000 USD) PC Partner stock reached 7 HKD or +/- 300% higher vs today. Got Pc Partner yet?

PC Partner: In the Last Bitcoin Bull Market Stock Was 300% Higher. Repeat?

Several years ago we wrote about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pc-partners-1263-hk-a-poor-man-s-way-into-nvidia-new-gpu-cycle-trades-at-3x-pe-and-11-div-yield" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:23737" rel="noopener">PC Partners (1263 HK): A Poor Man's Way into Nvidia New GPU Cycle; Trades at 3x PE and 11% Div Yield</a>.We see a similar trade coming up in 4Q20 and into 1Q21.As demonstrated over the years covering PC Partners the stock is rarely a buy &amp; hold. With Nvidia's new RTX30 GPU launch (GTX3060/GTX3070/GTX3080 and GTX 3090) being spread out from October to December there is likely to be excitement around its performance and uptake.Much different than in FY18 there is no large oversupply from a deflating crypto bubble. This means there is no old inventory to clear which should result in much better GPM and NPM for Pc Partners. Please also note that gearing for Pc Partner in 2018 was over 100% while the company will have a net cash position by the end of FY20.Pc Partner remains a poor man's way to play Nvidia and key themes such as e-sports, AI, data centers, and overall gaming. We expect dividends to be reinstated for FY20. On our estimates, the company will achieve 8 billion HKD in FY20 sales and generate 272 million HKD in net profit (3.4% NPM). If we assume a 30% payout on that we get a 0.22 HKD/share full-year dividend or a 14% dividend yield. We expect the stock to reach 3 HKD in the coming 6 months. Upside could come from a bullish breakout in cryptocurrencies as crypto mining (which consumes massive GPU) comes back in vogue. The downside is capped by a very cheap valuation.

Several years ago we wrote about PC Partners (1263 HK): A Poor Man's Way into Nvidia New GPU Cycle; Trades at 3x PE and 11% Div Yield.We see a similar trade coming up in 4Q20 and into 1Q21.As demonstrated over the years covering PC Partners the stock is rarely a buy &amp; hold. With Nvidia's new RTX30 GPU launch (GTX3060/GTX3070/GTX3080 and GTX 3090) being spread out from October to December there is likely to be excitement around its performance and uptake.Much different than in FY18 there is no large oversupply from a deflating crypto bubble. This means there is no old inventory to clear which should result in much better GPM and NPM for Pc Partners. Please also note that gearing for Pc Partner in 2018 was over 100% while the company will have a net cash position by the end of FY20.Pc Partner remains a poor man's way to play Nvidia and key themes such as e-sports, AI, data centers, and overall gaming. We expect dividends to be reinstated for FY20. On our estimates, the company will achieve 8 billion HKD in FY20 sales and generate 272 million HKD in net profit (3.4% NPM). If we assume a 30% payout on that we get a 0.22 HKD/share full-year dividend or a 14% dividend yield. We expect the stock to reach 3 HKD in the coming 6 months. Upside could come from a bullish breakout in cryptocurrencies as crypto mining (which consumes massive GPU) comes back in vogue. The downside is capped by a very cheap valuation.

PC Partner: Poor-Man's Play on Nvidia  (Part 2); Trades at 2x FY20 P/E and 14% Dividend Yield

Hong Kong

PC Partner Group Limited designs, develops, manufactures, and sells computer electronics, including video graphics cards, motherboards, and mini-PCs under brands like ZOTAC, Inno3D, and Manli. The company also provides electronics manufacturing services for various consumer electronic products. Headquartered in Singapore, it was founded in 1997.

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PC Partner (PCPG SP)

PC Partner New High Charge

PC Partner (1263 HK) is gunning for new highs if it can sustain gains above the 5.0 direction pivot barrier. Near term strength is exhausting but a...

Thomas Schroeder

Preview PC Partner FY20 Earnings + Outlook: Tight GPU Margin Gives FY21 Upside Potential

PC Partner will enjoy rising gross margins in FY21 which will benefit profits and dividends going forward. We forecast another 55% upside from...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

PC Partner Macro Bullish Wedge

PC Partner exhibits a very bullish macro cycle forming as price action challenges the breakout point of the macro bull wedge. This is a value play...

Thomas Schroeder

PC Partner: In the Last Bitcoin Bull Market Stock Was 300% Higher. Repeat?

Pc Partner is not only a poor man's way to get exposure to Nvidia but also a forgotten way to play the rise of Bitcoin. During the last Bitcoin run...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

PC Partner: Poor-Man's Play on Nvidia (Part 2); Trades at 2x FY20 P/E and 14% Dividend Yield

Several years ago we wrote

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

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