Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy (GULF TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch (INTUCH TB)</a> merger is an opportunistic, bullying method designed to have GULF shareholders buy INTUCH and therefore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">AIS (ADVANC TB)</a> at too low a price. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a>'s interest in a possible London listing coincides with the LSE undergoing a listing regime change.</li>
<li>Management continue to creep their stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>, and now hold a shade under 50%. </li>
</ul>


The Gulf Energy (GULF TB)/Intouch (INTUCH TB) merger is an opportunistic, bullying method designed to have GULF shareholders buy INTUCH and therefore AIS (ADVANC TB) at too low a price. 

CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)'s interest in a possible London listing coincides with the LSE undergoing a listing regime change.
Management continue to creep their stake in Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), and now hold a shade under 50%. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Gulf Energy/Intouch, CK Infra, Zhongsheng, Thai Beverage, Fraser & Neave

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Pc Partner reported its second-best year ever in FY22. But FY22 was divided into two distinct halves: a strong 1H22 and one of the worst halves 2H22.</li>
<li>FY23 looks to be another challenging year as margins stay under pressure and are unlikely to come back to FY21-FY22 levels but could revert to FY17-FY19 levels.</li>
<li>Over the past two years, Pc Partner had a large net cash buffer, but this is no longer the case. We expect the stock to revisit 2-3 HKD range.</li>
</ul>


Pc Partner reported its second-best year ever in FY22. But FY22 was divided into two distinct halves: a strong 1H22 and one of the worst halves 2H22.
FY23 looks to be another challenging year as margins stay under pressure and are unlikely to come back to FY21-FY22 levels but could revert to FY17-FY19 levels.
Over the past two years, Pc Partner had a large net cash buffer, but this is no longer the case. We expect the stock to revisit 2-3 HKD range.


PC Partner: Difficult 1H23 with Improvement in 2H23 as Nvidia Ramps up RTX Series

<ul>
<li>With investors chucking in the towel and the HSI touching a thirteen-year low, it's time for some old school perspective.</li>
<li>This insight looks at Benjamin Graham's Net Nets, (current assets less current liabilities), then subtract any debt not included in current liabilities. More simply, current assets less total liabilities.</li>
<li>Graham would conclude these stocks are priced for liquidation. Stocks discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinopec-engineering-group-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18372:1" rel="noopener">Sinopec Engineering (2386 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pc-partner-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8492:1" rel="noopener">PC Partner (1263 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/linklogis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31126:1" rel="noopener">Linklogis (9959 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antengene-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29705:1" rel="noopener">Antengene (6996 HK)</a> and property service companies.</li>
</ul>


With investors chucking in the towel and the HSI touching a thirteen-year low, it's time for some old school perspective.
This insight looks at Benjamin Graham's Net Nets, (current assets less current liabilities), then subtract any debt not included in current liabilities. More simply, current assets less total liabilities.
Graham would conclude these stocks are priced for liquidation. Stocks discussed include Sinopec Engineering (2386 HK), PC Partner (1263 HK), Linklogis (9959 HK), Antengene (6996 HK) and property service companies.


<ul>
<li>Pc Partner reported a strong set of 1H22 results last week and held a conf call with investors this week. Importantly, management sees no impact by US/China Nvidia AI situation.</li>
<li>3Q22 results will be weak as old inventory is being discounted in front of the launch of RTX 40 by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) in early 4Q22.</a>
</li>
<li>Stock is unlikely to rally before more clarity on inventory situation improvement, but well supported by net cash (5.4 HKD) and high interim dividend (11.4%). </li>
</ul>


Pc Partner reported a strong set of 1H22 results last week and held a conf call with investors this week. Importantly, management sees no impact by US/China Nvidia AI situation.
3Q22 results will be weak as old inventory is being discounted in front of the launch of RTX 40 by NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) in early 4Q22.

Stock is unlikely to rally before more clarity on inventory situation improvement, but well supported by net cash (5.4 HKD) and high interim dividend (11.4%). 


PC Partner: Strong 1H22 but High Uncertainty into 2H22. Downside Supported by Cash and Dividend.

<ul>
<li>1H22 was a story of two halves: 1Q22 still showed record profits but 2Q22 got progressively worse. 3Q22 started weak with inventory clearance and Nvidia new GPU launch awaited.</li>
<li>Even after paying a fantastic final dividend in June 2022, it is now trading below net cash on the balance sheet.  </li>
<li>We estimate net cash on the balance sheet is now 9 HKD vs 7 HKD share price.</li>
</ul>


1H22 was a story of two halves: 1Q22 still showed record profits but 2Q22 got progressively worse. 3Q22 started weak with inventory clearance and Nvidia new GPU launch awaited.
Even after paying a fantastic final dividend in June 2022, it is now trading below net cash on the balance sheet.  
We estimate net cash on the balance sheet is now 9 HKD vs 7 HKD share price.


Preview Pc Partner 1H22 Earnings: Solid Profits and Cash Now over 100% of Market Cap

Hong Kong

PC Partner Group Limited designs, develops, manufactures, and sells computer electronics, including video graphics cards, motherboards, and mini-PCs under brands like ZOTAC, Inno3D, and Manli. The company also provides electronics manufacturing services for various consumer electronic products. Headquartered in Singapore, it was founded in 1997.

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PC Partner (PCPG SP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Gulf Energy/Intouch, CK Infra, Zhongsheng, Thai Beverage, Fraser & Neave

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

PC Partner: Difficult 1H23 with Improvement in 2H23 as Nvidia Ramps up RTX Series

Pc Partner is facing a rough outlook in FY23 as FY21-FY22 margins revert lower to levels seen between FY17-FY19. The net cash buffer has declined...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Hong Kong Stocks Priced For Liquidation

With investors chucking in the towel and the HSI touching a thirteen-year low, it's time for some old school perspective.

David Blennerhassett

PC Partner: Strong 1H22 but High Uncertainty into 2H22. Downside Supported by Cash and Dividend.

PC partner reported solid 1H22 results. 3Q22 outlook is weak and the inventory situation is high depressing sentiment. The downside is supported by...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Preview Pc Partner 1H22 Earnings: Solid Profits and Cash Now over 100% of Market Cap

Pc Partner has seen a good 1Q22 but a sharp slowdown late in 2Q22. We forecast weakness into 3Q22 but are hopeful for a recovery in ASP on the back...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

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