Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>RMB dual counter started trading. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>'s A-shares trade at 3x the multiple. THAT is a big discount to harvest. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a>'s CFO exits an indirect stake of 6.38% around Feihe's all-time low. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19029:1" rel="noopener">EcoPro Co Ltd (086520 KS)</a> has swatted aside analyst downgrades and the indictment of its chairman to touch an all-time high</li>
</ul>


RMB dual counter started trading. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)'s A-shares trade at 3x the multiple. THAT is a big discount to harvest. 

China Feihe (6186 HK)'s CFO exits an indirect stake of 6.38% around Feihe's all-time low. 

EcoPro Co Ltd (086520 KS) has swatted aside analyst downgrades and the indictment of its chairman to touch an all-time high


Last Week in Event SPACE: Great Wall Motor, China Feihe, EcoPro, PCCW

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> is selling an initial 26.1% equity stake in its streaming platform Viu, to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vivendi-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21076:1" rel="noopener">Vivendi SA (VIV FP)</a>'s Canal+, for US$200mn.</li>
<li>Via a staggered investment, Canal+ can increase its equity to US$300mn. In addition, a further investment, at Canal+'s option, could result in increasing its stake in Viu to 51%.  </li>
<li>Elsewhere, PCCW's 18% discount to NAV is the narrowest in over two years.</li>
</ul>



PCCW Ltd (8 HK) is selling an initial 26.1% equity stake in its streaming platform Viu, to Vivendi SA (VIV FP)'s Canal+, for US$200mn.
Via a staggered investment, Canal+ can increase its equity to US$300mn. In addition, a further investment, at Canal+'s option, could result in increasing its stake in Viu to 51%.  
Elsewhere, PCCW's 18% discount to NAV is the narrowest in over two years.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a> is one of those periodic (and rare) takeover situations that will likely be remembered for what went wrong rather than what went right.  </li>
<li>A low-balled Offer (proxy advisors agree); perfunctory IFA analysis; a large, and silent, shareholder; and the postponement of the Scheme vote due to voting instructions not being "duly processed".</li>
<li>A new Court Meeting has been confirmed for the 2 June. And now we have some odd CCASS movements which raise further questions.</li>
</ul>



AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK) is one of those periodic (and rare) takeover situations that will likely be remembered for what went wrong rather than what went right.  
A low-balled Offer (proxy advisors agree); perfunctory IFA analysis; a large, and silent, shareholder; and the postponement of the Scheme vote due to voting instructions not being "duly processed".
A new Court Meeting has been confirmed for the 2 June. And now we have some odd CCASS movements which raise further questions.


AAG Energy (2686 HK): Curiouser and Curiouser

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>’s disclosed a revised timetable to vote on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-xintai-natural-gas-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27036:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)</a>’s HK$1.85 offer. The new scheme meeting is set for 2 June. </li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to YES to get the scheme approved. </li>
<li>AAG’s case is unprecedented. The risk-reward remains unattractive as the upside to a scheme pass (13.5% upside) is equal to the downside to a scheme fail (average 13.5% downside).</li>
</ul>



Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)’s disclosed a revised timetable to vote on Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)’s HK$1.85 offer. The new scheme meeting is set for 2 June. 
Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to YES to get the scheme approved. 
AAG’s case is unprecedented. The risk-reward remains unattractive as the upside to a scheme pass (13.5% upside) is equal to the downside to a scheme fail (average 13.5% downside).


AAG Energy (2686 HK): New Scheme Vote Date, Different Result?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a> spiked 12.3% yesterday in response to media reports (like <a href="https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/4/202702/China-Mobile-explores-acquiring-Hong-Kong-telecom-firm-HKBN%C2%A0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this one</a>) that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> was running a ruler over the company.</li>
<li>This follows Bloomberg reports last month and in May last year, that I Square's HGC Global Communications and numerous PE outfits were kicking tyres of the Hong Kong broadband play.</li>
<li>Over the weekend, Hong Kong's security chief was quoted as saying "the internet could become a major loophole when maintaining national security". <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:874:1" rel="noopener">HKT (6823 HK)</a> is a potential privatisation candidate. </li>
</ul>



HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) spiked 12.3% yesterday in response to media reports (like this one) that China Mobile (941 HK) was running a ruler over the company.
This follows Bloomberg reports last month and in May last year, that I Square's HGC Global Communications and numerous PE outfits were kicking tyres of the Hong Kong broadband play.
Over the weekend, Hong Kong's security chief was quoted as saying "the internet could become a major loophole when maintaining national security". HKT (6823 HK) is a potential privatisation candidate. 


Hong Kong

PCCW Limited is a Hong Kong-based information and communication technology (ICT) and telecommunications company. It provides fixed-line, broadband, mobile communication, and media entertainment services, including the OTT video streaming service Viu, alongside IT solutions and property development. The company is headquartered in Hong Kong and was founded in 1925.

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PCCW (8 HK)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Great Wall Motor, China Feihe, EcoPro, PCCW

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Vivendi Acquires A Stake In PCCW's Viu

An 18% discount to NAV is tight, relative to history, for this holding company structure. If you had set up the stub, I'd be unwinding here, with...

David Blennerhassett

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Curiouser and Curiouser

AAG Energy is cheap. But as one reader pointed out - "I just don't know what's going on". I'd second that. This is an avoid.

David Blennerhassett

AAG Energy (2686 HK): New Scheme Vote Date, Different Result?

Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to...

Arun George

If HKBN Gets Taken Out, Who's Next?

Is $10/share for HKBN enough to kick out TPG? Maybe. And it's peanuts for the likes of China Mobile sitting on cash of US$33bn. Separately, HKT is...

David Blennerhassett

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