Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Pinduoduo's surprise Q125 OP &amp; NP declines happened before US tariff, de minimis changes</li>
<li>Recent data from Bain &amp; Co. suggests extremely difficult US conditions for Temu, SHEIN</li>
<li>If representative, the April-May US data suggest deep, lasting US challenges for the platforms</li>
</ul>


Pinduoduo's surprise Q125 OP &amp; NP declines happened before US tariff, de minimis changes
Recent data from Bain &amp; Co. suggests extremely difficult US conditions for Temu, SHEIN
If representative, the April-May US data suggest deep, lasting US challenges for the platforms


PDD's Q125 Profit Decline Occurred Before US Squeeze | April-May US Sales Far Weaker for Temu, SHEIN

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>The stock price plunged by 16% after the 1Q25 results.</li>
<li>The two major competitors benefited from the state subsidies, but PDD did not.</li>
<li>However, PDD balances well between revenue growth and operating cash flow.</li>
</ul>


The stock price plunged by 16% after the 1Q25 results.
The two major competitors benefited from the state subsidies, but PDD did not.
However, PDD balances well between revenue growth and operating cash flow.


Pinduoduo (PDD): Plunged After Weak Results, But Overly Impacted

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>PDD Holdings (PDD) announced (27 May) 1Q25 results: revenue was up 10.2% YoY (4Q24: 24.4%) to RMB95.7bn, 6% shy of Bloomberg consensus estimates.</li><li>This shortfall was mainly due to a 12% miss on transaction services fees, despite partly offset by the 2% beat in online marketing services and others revenue, which we attribute to the further step-up in merchant support, and is likely to sustain, in our view.</li><li>Non-GAAP NP decreased by 45% YoY to RMB16.9bn, significantly missing consensus by 39%. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

PDD Holdings (PDD) announced (27 May) 1Q25 results: revenue was up 10.2% YoY (4Q24: 24.4%) to RMB95.7bn, 6% shy of Bloomberg consensus estimates.This shortfall was mainly due to a 12% miss on transaction services fees, despite partly offset by the 2% beat in online marketing services and others revenue, which we attribute to the further step-up in merchant support, and is likely to sustain, in our view.Non-GAAP NP decreased by 45% YoY to RMB16.9bn, significantly missing consensus by 39%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PDD Holdings (PDD US) - Investment to Enhance Platform Ecosystem...

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Pinduoduo sees one of the steepest ownership drops in EM funds, with 95 net sellers and 28 closures in six months.</li>
<li>Major closures from Aubrey, AllianceBernstein, UBS, and BNP Paribas; largest outflows from Fidelity and BlackRock.</li>
<li>Despite sharp declines, PDD remains in 36.5% of GEM funds and a top 10 holding in China &amp; HK.</li>
</ul>


Pinduoduo sees one of the steepest ownership drops in EM funds, with 95 net sellers and 28 closures in six months.
Major closures from Aubrey, AllianceBernstein, UBS, and BNP Paribas; largest outflows from Fidelity and BlackRock.
Despite sharp declines, PDD remains in 36.5% of GEM funds and a top 10 holding in China &amp; HK.


Pinduoduo: Record Ownership Decline Amid Sharp Rotation

<ul>
<li>Last week Temu confirmed dramatic changes to its business model in the US</li>
<li>Temu won't sell Chinese goods directly to US consumers, &amp; will rely on local fulfillment</li>
<li>The moves seem to put Temu into direct competition with Amazon, Walmart.com</li>
</ul>


Last week Temu confirmed dramatic changes to its business model in the US
Temu won't sell Chinese goods directly to US consumers, &amp; will rely on local fulfillment
The moves seem to put Temu into direct competition with Amazon, Walmart.com


In Response to Tariff & "De Minimis" Changes, Temu Alters US Business Model, Morphing Into...Amazon?

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

PDD's Q125 Profit Decline Occurred Before US Squeeze | April-May US Sales Far Weaker for Temu, SHEIN

Pinduoduo's shock decline in profitability in Q125 came before US tariff and de minimis changes. Recent April-May data out of the US suggests...

Tracking Traffic

Pinduoduo (PDD): Plunged After Weak Results, But Overly Impacted

The stock price plunged by 16% after the 1Q25 results. The two major competitors benefited from the state subsidies. However, PDD balances well...

Ming Lu