Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In-Line results were overshadowed by company's pullback from March restructuring plan and Jack ma's family trust selling shares.</li>
<li>Worst sell-off in a year was over-reaction as abrupt changes unnerved investors who tended to interpret the events  with excessive negative sentiments.</li>
<li>Valuation almost priced in a scenario where company is overtaken by PDD in faltering Chinese economy. Selling amidst this extreme pessimism is the last thing investors want in our view. </li>
</ul>


In-Line results were overshadowed by company's pullback from March restructuring plan and Jack ma's family trust selling shares.
Worst sell-off in a year was over-reaction as abrupt changes unnerved investors who tended to interpret the events  with excessive negative sentiments.
Valuation almost priced in a scenario where company is overtaken by PDD in faltering Chinese economy. Selling amidst this extreme pessimism is the last thing investors want in our view. 


Alibaba (BABA US): Selling at This Valuation Is Last Thing You Want

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>BABA reported C3Q23 revenue, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income in-line, 6% and (7%) vs. our est., and in-line, in-line and (14%);</li>
<li>Instead of appointing capable management to oversee key subsidiaries, BABA backpedalled to call off its spin-off plans;</li>
<li>We cut TP from US$ 127 to US$ 72, and downgrade to SELL.</li>
</ul>


BABA reported C3Q23 revenue, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income in-line, 6% and (7%) vs. our est., and in-line, in-line and (14%);
Instead of appointing capable management to oversee key subsidiaries, BABA backpedalled to call off its spin-off plans;
We cut TP from US$ 127 to US$ 72, and downgrade to SELL.


[Alibaba (BABA US, SELL, TP US$72) Rating Change]: The Casualty of Era…Downgrade to SELL

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
China’s two biggest e-commerce companies reported higher sales from this year’s Double 11 shopping extravaganza, but kept tight-lipped about just how high, as they rolled out discount-heavy strategies to encourage reluctant consumers to spend.
</li>
<li>
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and JD.com Inc. had offered a slew of discounts to attract shoppers as the recovery in household consumption in the world’s second largest economy <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2023-10-18/chinas-third-quarter-gdp-grows-102117643.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">slowly gained momentum in recent months</a>.
</li>
<li>
Alibaba said that both gross merchandise value (GMV) and order amount on Taobao and Tmall from Oct. 24 to Nov. 11 rose from the same period last year.
</li>
</ul>



China’s two biggest e-commerce companies reported higher sales from this year’s Double 11 shopping extravaganza, but kept tight-lipped about just how high, as they rolled out discount-heavy strategies to encourage reluctant consumers to spend.


Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and JD.com Inc. had offered a slew of discounts to attract shoppers as the recovery in household consumption in the world’s second largest economy slowly gained momentum in recent months.


Alibaba said that both gross merchandise value (GMV) and order amount on Taobao and Tmall from Oct. 24 to Nov. 11 rose from the same period last year.



Alibaba, JD.com Report Double 11 Sales Growth   

<ul>
<li>BABA/ JD/ PDD/ 1024.HK/ ZTO/ 1519.HK: Double 11 eCommerce update (+)</li>
<li>BABA/BIDU/700HK: Alibaba Cloud crashed for several hours during the weekend (-/+/+)</li>
<li>On November 12, 2023 Alibaba Cloud reportedly crashed for several hours, and in the process resulted in outages for Alibaba services and customer websites that stopped functioning properly.</li>
</ul>


BABA/ JD/ PDD/ 1024.HK/ ZTO/ 1519.HK: Double 11 eCommerce update (+)
BABA/BIDU/700HK: Alibaba Cloud crashed for several hours during the weekend (-/+/+)
On November 12, 2023 Alibaba Cloud reportedly crashed for several hours, and in the process resulted in outages for Alibaba services and customer websites that stopped functioning properly.


[Blue Lotus Daily] BABA/JD/PDD/1024.HK/ZTO/1519.HK/BIDU/Tencent 700.HK

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We remain positive on PDD Holdings’ (PDD) long-term growth prospect, mainly given: 1) domestic business could maintain healthy revenue and earnings growth in 2023, aided by the incorporation of more branded products and high ASP products, as well as the increase in monetization, aided by the increase in percentage of paid traffic volume;</li><li>2) Temu, the overseas e-commerce business operated under the “fully-entrusted” model, leveraging strong domestic supply chain and PDD’s strong execution capability, has seen robust GMV and revenue growth, which is on track to support PDD’s long-term revenue and earnings growth, and will likely propel a further valuation rerating, in our view.</li><li>We lift our DCF-based TP by 21% to US$131.8 (was US$109.0), to factor in potentially stronger-than-expected domestic business monetization expansion, and betterthan-expected development of Temu business. Maintain BUY.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We remain positive on PDD Holdings’ (PDD) long-term growth prospect, mainly given: 1) domestic business could maintain healthy revenue and earnings growth in 2023, aided by the incorporation of more branded products and high ASP products, as well as the increase in monetization, aided by the increase in percentage of paid traffic volume;2) Temu, the overseas e-commerce business operated under the “fully-entrusted” model, leveraging strong domestic supply chain and PDD’s strong execution capability, has seen robust GMV and revenue growth, which is on track to support PDD’s long-term revenue and earnings growth, and will likely propel a further valuation rerating, in our view.We lift our DCF-based TP by 21% to US$131.8 (was US$109.0), to factor in potentially stronger-than-expected domestic business monetization expansion, and betterthan-expected development of Temu business. Maintain BUY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PDD Holdings (PDD US) – Rapid Overseas Business Expansion

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

Alibaba (BABA US): Selling at This Valuation Is Last Thing You Want

Sell-off post results was over-reaction, as cloud IPO pullback and founder selling shares drove negative sentiments to extremely bearish end....

Eric Chen

[Alibaba (BABA US, SELL, TP US$72) Rating Change]: The Casualty of Era…Downgrade to SELL

Alibaba's Q3 revenue and profit were in line with expectations, but the company cancelled its spin-off plans and we have downgraded our rating to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba, JD.com Report Double 11 Sales Growth

China’s two biggest e-commerce companies reported higher sales from this year’s Double 11 shopping extravaganza, but kept tight-lipped about just...

Caixin Global

[Blue Lotus Daily] BABA/JD/PDD/1024.HK/ZTO/1519.HK/BIDU/Tencent 700.HK

Double 11 eCommerce update;Alibaba Cloud reportedly crashed for several hours during last weekend, third-party Alibaba Cloud Customers were also...

Blue Lotus Research Institute