Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.</li>
<li>Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16</li>
<li>We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology</li>
</ul>


In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.
Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16
We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology


Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in <em>Int’l Compass</em> and <em>ETF Pathfinder</em> reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 31st. The aggregated short interest was USD41.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, Hon Hai Precision, TSMC, Zhen Ding Technology, LARGAN Precision.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 31st. The aggregated short interest was USD41.0bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, Hon Hai Precision, TSMC, Zhen Ding Technology, LARGAN Precision.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 31st): Shin Kong Financial, Hon Hai Precision, TSMC

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A week that started negative was saved by a stronger outlook from Apple</li>
<li>Electric vehicles remain a source of strong demand for both hardware and semiconductors</li>
<li>Hardware earnings season is coming in stronger than that for semiconductors</li>
</ul>


A week that started negative was saved by a stronger outlook from Apple
Electric vehicles remain a source of strong demand for both hardware and semiconductors
Hardware earnings season is coming in stronger than that for semiconductors


Taiwan Tech Weekly - Buoyed by Apple Outlook

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Micron last week reported an 84.9% gross margin and guided next-quarter revenue near US$50bn, and foreign brokers raised targets across Taiwan's memory makers as the shortage runs past 2027.</li>
<li>Foreign investors net sold a record NT$177.4bn of Taiwan stocks on June 24, even as Taiwan's May export orders rose 47% year on year for a 16th straight month.</li>
<li>Korea unveiled a combined US$1.3tn, decade-long chip plan, and Samsung and SK Hynix shares fell on June 29 as investors weighed heavy capex against near-term cash returns.</li>
</ul>


Micron last week reported an 84.9% gross margin and guided next-quarter revenue near US$50bn, and foreign brokers raised targets across Taiwan's memory makers as the shortage runs past 2027.
Foreign investors net sold a record NT$177.4bn of Taiwan stocks on June 24, even as Taiwan's May export orders rose 47% year on year for a 16th straight month.
Korea unveiled a combined US$1.3tn, decade-long chip plan, and Samsung and SK Hynix shares fell on June 29 as investors weighed heavy capex against near-term cash returns.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Guides Memory to US$50bn, Korea's US$1.3tn Bet Sends Memory Shares Lower

Taiwan

Pegatron Corp is a design, manufacturing and service company. The Company produces motherboards, desktop PCs, notebooks, broadband, wireless systems, game consoles, networking, multimedia, LCD TV, and more.

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Pegatron Corp (4938 TT)

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 31st): Shin Kong Financial, Hon Hai Precision, TSMC

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, Hon Hai Precision, TSMC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Tech Weekly - Buoyed by Apple Outlook

How stronger Apple outlook has helped support the hardware and semiconducotor space and where the earnins season is performing best so far

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Guides Memory to US$50bn, Korea's US$1.3tn Bet Sends Memory Shares Lower

Taiwan's memory makers see increased targets as Micron reports strong margins and revenue guidance, while Korea's chip plan impacts Samsung and SK...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 31st): Shin Kong Financial, Hon Hai Precision, TSMC

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, Hon Hai Precision, TSMC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Tech Weekly - Buoyed by Apple Outlook

How stronger Apple outlook has helped support the hardware and semiconducotor space and where the earnins season is performing best so far

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Guides Memory to US$50bn, Korea's US$1.3tn Bet Sends Memory Shares Lower

​Taiwan's memory makers see increased targets as Micron reports strong margins and revenue guidance, while Korea's chip plan impacts Samsung and SK...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan's memory makers see increased targets as Micron reports strong margins and revenue guidance, while Korea's chip plan impacts Samsung and SK...