Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Equity Capital Markets

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

<ul>
<li>We studied 43 HK IPO cornerstone deals from the Jan to Nov 2025 listing cohort to measure price action around the IPO+6M lock-up expiry.</li>
<li>We note that selling pressure from cornerstone selling overhang is deal-size dependent.</li>
<li>Sponsor mix further refines the screen. Pure international-sponsored deals underperformed other cohorts.</li>
</ul>


We studied 43 HK IPO cornerstone deals from the Jan to Nov 2025 listing cohort to measure price action around the IPO+6M lock-up expiry.
We note that selling pressure from cornerstone selling overhang is deal-size dependent.
Sponsor mix further refines the screen. Pure international-sponsored deals underperformed other cohorts.


HK IPO Essential Statistics: Quantifying Lock-Up Expiry Overhang

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 22nd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, China Life, China Mobile, PICC P&amp;C, SMIC, Tencent, Geely Automobile, Xiaomi, Meituan, AIA.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 22nd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, China Life, China Mobile, PICC P&amp;C, SMIC, Tencent, Geely Automobile, Xiaomi, Meituan, AIA.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 22nd): Alibaba, China Life, China Mobile, PICC P&C, SMIC, Tencent

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the performance of Hong Kong Connect implementation in March 2026.</li>
<li>ADD stocks reversed their bridge window drawdown at implementation. The bounce faded by week 3 to 4.</li>
<li>DELETE stocks fell through first week, exceeding Sep 2025. Within the DELETE basket, the names where connect investors sold the most also fell the most.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the performance of Hong Kong Connect implementation in March 2026.
ADD stocks reversed their bridge window drawdown at implementation. The bounce faded by week 3 to 4.
DELETE stocks fell through first week, exceeding Sep 2025. Within the DELETE basket, the names where connect investors sold the most also fell the most.


HSCI / HK Connect (March 2026) Post-Event Review: What Worked, What Didn't

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng Index Company announced HSCI review results after market close on Feb 13. In our previous note, we reviewed the Sep 2025 HK Connect cycle.</li>
<li>In this note, we provide an update on the forecasted upcoming implementation action by the mainland exchanges based on implementation rules and highlight stock performance thus far.</li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that selectivity will be critical in this cycle, with differentiation driven by pre-positioning, narrative alignment, and ownership structure rather than mechanical inclusion alone.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng Index Company announced HSCI review results after market close on Feb 13. In our previous note, we reviewed the Sep 2025 HK Connect cycle.
In this note, we provide an update on the forecasted upcoming implementation action by the mainland exchanges based on implementation rules and highlight stock performance thus far.
Our analysis suggests that selectivity will be critical in this cycle, with differentiation driven by pre-positioning, narrative alignment, and ownership structure rather than mechanical inclusion alone.


HK Connect March 2026: Implementation Forecast and Positioning Framework

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There could be 49 potential inclusions and 25 potential deletions for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. There are more stocks that are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


There could be 49 potential inclusions and 25 potential deletions for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. There are more stocks that are close on market cap/liquidity.
A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Mar 2026): Many Changes Following Huge IPO Quarter

China

PegBio Co., Ltd. is a biotechnology company focused on the discovery and development of innovative therapies for chronic diseases, particularly metabolic disorders. The company develops differentiated therapeutics for conditions such as type 2 diabetes mellitus, obesity, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), opioid-induced constipation (OIC), and congenital hyperinsulinemia. PegBio was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China.

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PegBio (2565 HK)

HK IPO Essential Statistics: Quantifying Lock-Up Expiry Overhang

HK IPO Essential Stat: We studied 43 HK IPO cornerstone deals listed in 2025 to quantify the selling pressure upon lock-up expiry.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 22nd): Alibaba, China Life, China Mobile, PICC P&C, SMIC, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, China Life, China Mobile, PICC P&C, SMIC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCI / HK Connect (March 2026) Post-Event Review: What Worked, What Didn't

HK Connect Mar 2026 implementation cycle is completing. ADD reversed the WAI drawdown at implementation. DELETE continuation worked post...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect March 2026: Implementation Forecast and Positioning Framework

March Connect implementation is nearing: we forecast expected ADD/DELETE actions and assess how positioning, crowding, and southbound flows may...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Mar 2026): Many Changes Following Huge IPO Quarter

There could be 74 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 64 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

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