Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input. </li>
<li>The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.</li>
<li>This week we flag: Peleton, Life Time Group, Cano Health, Cinemark</li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input. 
The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.
This week we flag: Peleton, Life Time Group, Cano Health, Cinemark


Solvency Risk Short Candidates: Peloton, Life Time Group, Cano Health, Cinemark

SPAC Deep Dive, subSPAC

subSPAC

SPAC Deep Dive

Each week we’ll identify and break down for you SPACs that are capturing market share and making an impact.

<ul><li>Pandemic darling Peloton saw a meteoric rise and fall over the past two years.</li><li>The company initially benefited from soaring demand, but overestimated demand and eventually leading to a fire sale and massive layoffs.</li><li>German sports e-commerce retailer Signa Sports United, which went public through a SPAC deal last year, could face a similar fate in the coming months.</li></ul>

Pandemic darling Peloton saw a meteoric rise and fall over the past two years.The company initially benefited from soaring demand, but overestimated demand and eventually leading to a fire sale and massive layoffs.German sports e-commerce retailer Signa Sports United, which went public through a SPAC deal last year, could face a similar fate in the coming months.

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

<ul>
<li>During the #1 product and growth conference Amplify 2022 in Las Vegas, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amplitude-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34148:1" rel="noopener">Amplitude (AMPL US)</a>  introduced the Customer Data Platform (CDP) with integrated product analytics.  </li>
<li>The company expanded partner integration with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snowflake-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29254:1" rel="noopener">Snowflake Inc (SNOW US)</a>  to improve data connectivity while Amplitude Experiment sees strong traction with customers. </li>
<li>With shares down ~65% YTD, Amplitude has underperformed the Nasdaq Composite (-23%). Our PT is $28.00, implying ~14x EV/2022E revenue and ~10x EV/2023E revenue. </li>
</ul>


During the #1 product and growth conference Amplify 2022 in Las Vegas, Amplitude (AMPL US)  introduced the Customer Data Platform (CDP) with integrated product analytics.  
The company expanded partner integration with Snowflake Inc (SNOW US)  to improve data connectivity while Amplitude Experiment sees strong traction with customers. 
With shares down ~65% YTD, Amplitude has underperformed the Nasdaq Composite (-23%). Our PT is $28.00, implying ~14x EV/2022E revenue and ~10x EV/2023E revenue. 


Amplitude: Valuations Look Attractive and Growth Catalysts May Materialize in CY22

<ul>
<li>Fintech unicorn could report strong earnings results for FY Q3 2022. Total revenue increased by 54% year-over-year, and net loss narrowed to ~$55M for the reporting period.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/affirm-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31038:1" rel="noopener">Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)</a>  closed a $500M revolving ABS deal and added $2.5B in new funding capacity from various partners. Total funding capacity was ~$9B, marking a 55% YoY increase.  </li>
<li>Sovereign wealth fund GIC Singapore acquired ~$126 million worth of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/affirm-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31038:1" rel="noopener">Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)</a>  shares in April at an average of <strong>$33.00</strong> per share.</li>
</ul>


Fintech unicorn could report strong earnings results for FY Q3 2022. Total revenue increased by 54% year-over-year, and net loss narrowed to ~$55M for the reporting period.

Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)  closed a $500M revolving ABS deal and added $2.5B in new funding capacity from various partners. Total funding capacity was ~$9B, marking a 55% YoY increase.  
Sovereign wealth fund GIC Singapore acquired ~$126 million worth of Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)  shares in April at an average of $33.00 per share.


Affirm Raises Outlook For FY 2022: No Changes In Bullish Narrative

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Roblox was crushed on 4Q21 earnings, owing to a weak guidance for January due to tough Covid comps.</li>
<li>We think the selloff is overdone given the still strong user growth and the "of course" normalization that was due to occur after incredible growth for the past two years.</li>
<li>Once growth normalizes midyear, the platform narrative will resume as reaccelerating core growth and 2023 advertising growth comes into view. A likely double from here.</li>
</ul>


Roblox was crushed on 4Q21 earnings, owing to a weak guidance for January due to tough Covid comps.
We think the selloff is overdone given the still strong user growth and the "of course" normalization that was due to occur after incredible growth for the past two years.
Once growth normalizes midyear, the platform narrative will resume as reaccelerating core growth and 2023 advertising growth comes into view. A likely double from here.


Roblox 4Q21: Metaverse or Optical Illusion?

United States

Peloton Interactive, Inc. provides sporting apparels and products. The Company offers tops, bras, bottoms, watch bands, hats, bags, and workout bikes for indoor cycling products. Peloton Interactive serves customers worldwide.

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Peloton Interactive (PTON US)

Solvency Risk Short Candidates: Peloton, Life Time Group, Cano Health, Cinemark

This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows. This week we flag: Peloton, Life Time...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Will This De-SPAC Be The Next Peloton?

The company initially benefited from soaring demand, but overestimated demand and eventually leading to a fire sale and massive layoffs.

subSPAC

Amplitude: Valuations Look Attractive and Growth Catalysts May Materialize in CY22

Amplitude remains well-positioned as one of the leaders in product analytics with an opportunity to convert more GA enterprise customers to...

Andrei Zakharov

Affirm Raises Outlook For FY 2022: No Changes In Bullish Narrative

We are moving our price target to $70.00 from $76.00, which we believe is fair and conservative. We model total revenue rising to ~$1.98B in FY’23,...

Andrei Zakharov

Roblox 4Q21: Metaverse or Optical Illusion?

2-3% MoM billings growth in January was the (negative) headline, but continued strong DAU growth and Hours Engaged are proof that the underlying...

Aaron Gabin

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