The accounting research firm, GMT Research

Lisa Mangkornkarn

The accounting research firm

GMT Research

GMT Research provides independent insight into markets, sectors and companies throughout Asia. Our unique method of mining a comprehensive collection of corporate financial statements for key data allows us to evaluate the financial health of a company, sectors and the market at large. We also investigate the application of accounting standards by companies and sectors, shedding light on the quality of reported profits. Armed with this information, we help investment professionals navigate the financial landscape.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Sometimes stock markets don’t bounce back. They just hit the bottom and then crawl sideways for years. Take Greece, its stock market is still 87% below its 2007 peak. Over 20 years later and Thailand’s is still below its 1994 peak! The problem in both instances was that a major part of the economy was over-leveraged and needed to down-pay debt. This necessitated slower economic growth. In Asia back in 1997, as it is in Greece today, an over-leveraged corporate sector was a major contributing factor. And yet scant attention is paid to this part of the economy…but that’s where we come in handy.Whilst we might be best known for our accounting reports on the likes of <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/noble-group-what-new-disclosure" target="_blank">Noble Group </a>and <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/airasia-just-answer-the-questions" target="_blank">AirAsia</a>, we also conduct detailed analysis of the listed corporate sector with a focus on capex, free cash flows and leverage. This enables us to tell whether the corporate sector is in a position to support an investment up-cycle or whether a prolonged down-cycle is likely. We gather data from over 32,000 listed non-financials across 43 markets over a 20 year horizon.

Sometimes stock markets don’t bounce back. They just hit the bottom and then crawl sideways for years. Take Greece, its stock market is still 87% below its 2007 peak. Over 20 years later and Thailand’s is still below its 1994 peak! The problem in both instances was that a major part of the economy was over-leveraged and needed to down-pay debt. This necessitated slower economic growth. In Asia back in 1997, as it is in Greece today, an over-leveraged corporate sector was a major contributing factor. And yet scant attention is paid to this part of the economy…but that’s where we come in handy.Whilst we might be best known for our accounting reports on the likes of Noble Group and AirAsia, we also conduct detailed analysis of the listed corporate sector with a focus on capex, free cash flows and leverage. This enables us to tell whether the corporate sector is in a position to support an investment up-cycle or whether a prolonged down-cycle is likely. We gather data from over 32,000 listed non-financials across 43 markets over a 20 year horizon.

CORPORATE LEVERAGE: An Inconvenient Truth

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

<ul><li>Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.</li><li>The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.</li><li>I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.</li><li>In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.</li></ul>

Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Eastroc Beverage / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eastroc-beverage-group-co-ltd-f3283290-a611-4cb4-8857-93101786e283" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45048:1" rel="noopener">Eastroc Beverage Group (9980 HK)</a> has a solid growth outlook with a 3-year EPS CAGR of 27.8%, given its leadership position in China's functional beverage market. </li>
<li>Its IPO price of HK$248 equals 20.4x FY26F PER. This is at 44% premium to the sector and 19% discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a>, which is justified. </li>
<li>The cap and the floor is 5% and 15% discount to the A-share, i.e. HK$239-265.1, implying a 7% upside and 4% downside. The IPO (11.2% discount) is fairly priced.</li>
</ul>



Eastroc Beverage Group (9980 HK) has a solid growth outlook with a 3-year EPS CAGR of 27.8%, given its leadership position in China's functional beverage market. 
Its IPO price of HK$248 equals 20.4x FY26F PER. This is at 44% premium to the sector and 19% discount to Nongfu Spring (9633 HK), which is justified. 
The cap and the floor is 5% and 15% discount to the A-share, i.e. HK$239-265.1, implying a 7% upside and 4% downside. The IPO (11.2% discount) is fairly priced.


Eastroc Beverage (9980 HK) IPO: Close to Fairly Priced

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ifbh-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45067:1" rel="noopener">IFBH (6603 HK)</a> raised US$169m (including over-allocation) from its Hong Kong IPO in June 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone, pre-IPO investors and controlling shareholders is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>IFBH specializes in ready-to-consume beverages and food, with a focus on coconut water and plant-based products. </li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



IFBH (6603 HK) raised US$169m (including over-allocation) from its Hong Kong IPO in June 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone, pre-IPO investors and controlling shareholders is set to expire soon.
IFBH specializes in ready-to-consume beverages and food, with a focus on coconut water and plant-based products. 
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


IFBH IPO Lockup - US$262m Lockup Release but the Stock Has Nosedived

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>PepsiCo is stirring the energy drink market with a $585 million investment to increase its stake in Celsius Holdings to 11%, while also transferring the U.S. and Canadian operations of Rockstar Energy to Celsius.</li><li>This strategic reshuffling, paired with PepsiCo's recent productivity drive and renewed distribution focus, signals a tactical repositioning in a segment long dominated by Red Bull and Monster.</li><li>Celsius will now take the lead in managing PepsiCo's energy drink strategy in North America, overseeing brands like Celsius, Alani Nu, and Rockstar.</li></ul>

PepsiCo is stirring the energy drink market with a $585 million investment to increase its stake in Celsius Holdings to 11%, while also transferring the U.S. and Canadian operations of Rockstar Energy to Celsius.This strategic reshuffling, paired with PepsiCo's recent productivity drive and renewed distribution focus, signals a tactical repositioning in a segment long dominated by Red Bull and Monster.Celsius will now take the lead in managing PepsiCo's energy drink strategy in North America, overseeing brands like Celsius, Alani Nu, and Rockstar.

PepsiCo’s $585 Million Bet And Elliott’s $4 Billion Stake: Is A Reboot Coming?

United States

PepsiCo, Inc. operates worldwide beverage, snack and food businesses. The Company manufactures or uses contract manufacturers, markets and sells a variety of grain-based snacks, carbonated and non-carbonated beverages and foods in countries throughout the world.

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Pepsico Inc (PEP US)

CORPORATE LEVERAGE: An Inconvenient Truth

Sometimes stock markets don’t bounce back. They just hit the bottom and then crawl sideways for years. Take Greece, its stock market is still 87%...

GMT Research

Weekly Impressions

Annualised volatility in the S&P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average...

Sam Ferraro

Eastroc Beverage (9980 HK) IPO: Close to Fairly Priced

Eastroc has solid growth with a 3-year EPS CAGR of 27.8%, supported by leadership in China's functional beverage market. Its IPO is fairly priced...

Osbert Tang, CFA

IFBH IPO Lockup - US$262m Lockup Release but the Stock Has Nosedived

IFBH Ltd raised around US$169m from its Hong Kong IPO in June 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone and pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Akshat Shah

PepsiCo’s $585 Million Bet And Elliott’s $4 Billion Stake: Is A Reboot Coming?

PepsiCo is stirring the energy drink market with a $585 million investment to increase its stake in Celsius Holdings to 11%, while also...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CORPORATE LEVERAGE: An Inconvenient Truth

Sometimes stock markets don’t bounce back. They just hit the bottom and then crawl sideways for years. Take Greece, its stock market is still 87%...

GMT Research

Weekly Impressions

Annualised volatility in the S&P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average...

Sam Ferraro

Eastroc Beverage (9980 HK) IPO: Close to Fairly Priced

​Eastroc has solid growth with a 3-year EPS CAGR of 27.8%, supported by leadership in China's functional beverage market. Its IPO is fairly priced...

Osbert Tang, CFA

IFBH IPO Lockup - US$262m Lockup Release but the Stock Has Nosedived

IFBH Ltd raised around US$169m from its Hong Kong IPO in June 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone and pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Akshat Shah

PepsiCo’s $585 Million Bet And Elliott’s $4 Billion Stake: Is A Reboot Coming?

PepsiCo is stirring the energy drink market with a $585 million investment to increase its stake in Celsius Holdings to 11%, while also...

Baptista Research

Eastroc has solid growth with a 3-year EPS CAGR of 27.8%, supported by leadership in China's functional beverage market. Its IPO is fairly priced...