Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM, Dantes Outlook

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM

Dantes Outlook

We invest over a full market cycle, using multi-asset portfolios tailored to each global client, from individuals to family offices.

Built to Endure

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
India reversed its entire relative gain against EM. The near 50% relative drawdown is the deepest and longest since 2012, so we're positioning for improvement.</li>
<li>
Bottom-Decile losses in India have historically preceded strong rebounds. Although relative washouts offer no comparable evidence. We can scale up on an absoute basis.</li>
<li>
Opportunity in the middle of the index. We built a tiered watch list from the middle cohort, scaling toward equal weight as confirmation arrives.</li>
</ul>



India reversed its entire relative gain against EM. The near 50% relative drawdown is the deepest and longest since 2012, so we're positioning for improvement.

Bottom-Decile losses in India have historically preceded strong rebounds. Although relative washouts offer no comparable evidence. We can scale up on an absoute basis.

Opportunity in the middle of the index. We built a tiered watch list from the middle cohort, scaling toward equal weight as confirmation arrives.


India Equities: Stocks to Watch After Deep Underperformance

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/epam-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18576:1" rel="noopener">Epam Systems (EPAM US)</a> stock plunged 17–21% on February 19, 2026, after issuing a conservative 2026 revenue guidance of 4.5% to 7.5%, signaling structural slowdown in high-end digital engineering demand.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/persistent-systems-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9468:1" rel="noopener">Persistent Systems (PSYS IN)</a> shares a near-identical "Product Engineering" DNA with EPAM. With PSYS trading at a 45x–50x TTM P/E versus EPAM’s 21x–25x, valuation gap has reached a historical extreme.</li>
<li>While Persistent’s Q3 FY26 execution was strong, the "EPAM spillover" suggests a significant risk of valuation compression for PSYS if discretionary digital spending continues to pivot from "innovation" to "cost-optimization."</li>
</ul>



Epam Systems (EPAM US) stock plunged 17–21% on February 19, 2026, after issuing a conservative 2026 revenue guidance of 4.5% to 7.5%, signaling structural slowdown in high-end digital engineering demand.

Persistent Systems (PSYS IN) shares a near-identical "Product Engineering" DNA with EPAM. With PSYS trading at a 45x–50x TTM P/E versus EPAM’s 21x–25x, valuation gap has reached a historical extreme.
While Persistent’s Q3 FY26 execution was strong, the "EPAM spillover" suggests a significant risk of valuation compression for PSYS if discretionary digital spending continues to pivot from "innovation" to "cost-optimization."


The EPAM Shadow: Is Persistent Systems' Premium Justifiable?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Q2FY26 results show a "stabilizing" sector, but this was a illusion. The 30-90 bps margin beat was gifted almost entirely by a 3.6% INR depreciation.</li>
<li>The aggregate numbers hide a structural bifurcation. Tier-1 players like TCS face GenAI "productivity headwinds", forcing "involuntary attrition". Agile Mid-Tiers like Coforge and Persistent are monetizing AI and winning share.</li>
<li>Investors can no longer buy "the IT sector." The Q2 results prove it's a tale of two industries, a choice between leaders facing a painful transition and high-growth, high-premium challengers.</li>
</ul>


Q2FY26 results show a "stabilizing" sector, but this was a illusion. The 30-90 bps margin beat was gifted almost entirely by a 3.6% INR depreciation.
The aggregate numbers hide a structural bifurcation. Tier-1 players like TCS face GenAI "productivity headwinds", forcing "involuntary attrition". Agile Mid-Tiers like Coforge and Persistent are monetizing AI and winning share.
Investors can no longer buy "the IT sector." The Q2 results prove it's a tale of two industries, a choice between leaders facing a painful transition and high-growth, high-premium challengers.


Thematic Report on The Great IT Bifurcation: Why TCS Is Downsizing While Coforge Soars

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consultancy-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18708:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN)</a> is set to report Q2 FY 2027 results on Thursday, 8 October 2026. Consensus forecasts point to revenue growth of about 10% year on year.</li>
<li>Post-Earnings share-price moves have averaged 2.5% in absolute terms across the past 27 quarterly reports, with occasional moves exceeding 6%.</li>
<li>October options imply a move of approximately 4.5%. Buyers must contend with an expected drop in implied volatility after the announcement.</li>
</ul>



Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN) is set to report Q2 FY 2027 results on Thursday, 8 October 2026. Consensus forecasts point to revenue growth of about 10% year on year.
Post-Earnings share-price moves have averaged 2.5% in absolute terms across the past 27 quarterly reports, with occasional moves exceeding 6%.
October options imply a move of approximately 4.5%. Buyers must contend with an expected drop in implied volatility after the announcement.


Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN): October Options Price a 4.5% Earnings Move

<ul>
<li>A U.S. executive order, "Project Firewall" has imposed a substantial one-time fee of USD100,000 on new H-1B visa applications, directly impacting the primary talent pipeline for Indian IT services firms.</li>
<li>This policy change represents a catalyst that will accelerate Indian IT companies towards higher offshore delivery and greater local hiring in the United States, thereby reshaping their global operating models.</li>
<li>The initial panic has eased, the fee is now seen as manageable, with its real impact unfolding through profitability pressures and evolving talent strategies amid tighter regulations.</li>
</ul>


A U.S. executive order, "Project Firewall" has imposed a substantial one-time fee of USD100,000 on new H-1B visa applications, directly impacting the primary talent pipeline for Indian IT services firms.
This policy change represents a catalyst that will accelerate Indian IT companies towards higher offshore delivery and greater local hiring in the United States, thereby reshaping their global operating models.
The initial panic has eased, the fee is now seen as manageable, with its real impact unfolding through profitability pressures and evolving talent strategies amid tighter regulations.


Thematic Report on H-1B Visa Impact: Can Brain Drain in US Become Brain Gain for India?

India

Persistent Systems is a global digital engineering and enterprise modernization company. It provides information technology and software engineering services, including software product engineering, cloud services, and data-driven solutions to clients across industries like banking, healthcare, and technology. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Pune, India.

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Persistent Systems (PSYS IN)

India Equities: Stocks to Watch After Deep Underperformance

India looks attractive after a historic washout. We prefer to position among leaders in the middle of the index, scaling up as breadth improves....

Damanick Dantes, CMT

The EPAM Shadow: Is Persistent Systems' Premium Justifiable?

EPAM Systems stock drops after conservative revenue guidance, signaling slowdown in digital engineering demand. Persistent Systems faces valuation...

Nimish Maheshwari

Thematic Report on The Great IT Bifurcation: Why TCS Is Downsizing While Coforge Soars

Q2FY26 results reveal a deceptive stability in the IT sector, with Tier-1 players facing challenges while agile Mid-Tiers capitalize on AI,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN): October Options Price a 4.5% Earnings Move

TCS’s 8 October results put its October options in focus: the term structure implies a 4.5% move, roughly twice the average reaction to its past 27...

Gaudenz Schneider

Thematic Report on H-1B Visa Impact: Can Brain Drain in US Become Brain Gain for India?

US executive order imposes $100,000 fee on new H-1B visas, pushing Indian IT firms towards offshore delivery and local hiring in the US, reshaping...

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India Equities: Stocks to Watch After Deep Underperformance

India looks attractive after a historic washout. We prefer to position among leaders in the middle of the index, scaling up as breadth improves....

Damanick Dantes, CMT

The EPAM Shadow: Is Persistent Systems' Premium Justifiable?

​EPAM Systems stock drops after conservative revenue guidance, signaling slowdown in digital engineering demand. Persistent Systems faces valuation...

Nimish Maheshwari

Thematic Report on The Great IT Bifurcation: Why TCS Is Downsizing While Coforge Soars

​Q2FY26 results reveal a deceptive stability in the IT sector, with Tier-1 players facing challenges while agile Mid-Tiers capitalize on AI,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN): October Options Price a 4.5% Earnings Move

TCS’s 8 October results put its October options in focus: the term structure implies a 4.5% move, roughly twice the average reaction to its past 27...

Gaudenz Schneider

Thematic Report on H-1B Visa Impact: Can Brain Drain in US Become Brain Gain for India?

​US executive order imposes $100,000 fee on new H-1B visas, pushing Indian IT firms towards offshore delivery and local hiring in the US, reshaping...

Nimish Maheshwari

EPAM Systems stock drops after conservative revenue guidance, signaling slowdown in digital engineering demand. Persistent Systems faces valuation...

Q2FY26 results reveal a deceptive stability in the IT sector, with Tier-1 players facing challenges while agile Mid-Tiers capitalize on AI,...

US executive order imposes $100,000 fee on new H-1B visas, pushing Indian IT firms towards offshore delivery and local hiring in the US, reshaping...