Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 19 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. There are some stocks from the new F&amp;O inclusions.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 65.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 71bn (US$837m).</li>
<li>The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions since the start of July. The pace picked up over the last month as we neared the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


There could be 19 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. There are some stocks from the new F&amp;O inclusions.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 65.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 71bn (US$837m).
The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions since the start of July. The pace picked up over the last month as we neared the end of the review period.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 65% One-Way Turnover and US$1.6bn Trade

<ul>
<li>There could be 17 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. Some changes from earlier following 45 new F&amp;O stocks.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 61.5% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 63.4bn (US$752m).</li>
<li>The potential inclusions to the index have outperformed the potential deletions since the start of June. This trend could continue for a couple of weeks till the changes are announced.</li>
</ul>


There could be 17 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. Some changes from earlier following 45 new F&amp;O stocks.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 61.5% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 63.4bn (US$752m).
The potential inclusions to the index have outperformed the potential deletions since the start of June. This trend could continue for a couple of weeks till the changes are announced.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: More Changes with New F&O Stocks

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.</li>
<li>Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.
Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.


Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited provides investment services. The Company provides corporate and investment banking, securities, wealth management, retail brokerage, initial public offerings, and advisory services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Persistent Systems (PSYS) reported a strong quarter on all fronts – 1) revenue; 2) deal TCV; and 3) margins.</li><li>The company can address a key investor concern of its ability to improve margins in FY26 given one-off gains in FY25 led by levers of – 1) slower pace of sales and marketing investments; 2) pricing and right shoring; and 3) growing revenue share from higher-margin platform-based services.</li><li>We largely maintain our FY26–27E EPS and increase our FY25 estimate by ~3%, factoring in the beat in Q2.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Persistent Systems (PSYS) reported a strong quarter on all fronts – 1) revenue; 2) deal TCV; and 3) margins.The company can address a key investor concern of its ability to improve margins in FY26 given one-off gains in FY25 led by levers of – 1) slower pace of sales and marketing investments; 2) pricing and right shoring; and 3) growing revenue share from higher-margin platform-based services.We largely maintain our FY26–27E EPS and increase our FY25 estimate by ~3%, factoring in the beat in Q2.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Persistent Systems - On-Track to Deliver Industry Leading Growth

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance (BAF) reported a mixed set of earnings with steady loan growth (+29% YoY) and improving operating efficiency offset by elevated credit costs (2.1% annualised)</li><li>Asset quality witnessed deterioration across most segments, with higher forward flow rates during Q2FY25 as well</li><li>The management has increased its FY25 credit cost guidance by 20-30bps, although incremental focus has shifted towards asset quality</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance (BAF) reported a mixed set of earnings with steady loan growth (+29% YoY) and improving operating efficiency offset by elevated credit costs (2.1% annualised)Asset quality witnessed deterioration across most segments, with higher forward flow rates during Q2FY25 as wellThe management has increased its FY25 credit cost guidance by 20-30bps, although incremental focus has shifted towards asset qualityContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, ICICI Prudential Life, Persistent Systems, Supreme Industries

India

Persistent Systems Limited offers outsourced software product development. The Company offer services that include testing, support, and professional services.

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Persistent Systems (PSYS IN)

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 65% One-Way Turnover and US$1.6bn Trade

We forecast 19 changes for the index in December. One-way turnover is estimated at 65.2% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 71bn (US$837m). The...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: More Changes with New F&O Stocks

We forecast 17 changes a side for the index in Dec. Some of the changes have changed following 45 new F&O inclusions. The forecast adds have...

Brian Freitas

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI $ACWI and $SPX as they hold above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670; Buys in Services, Technology,...

Vermilion Research

Persistent Systems - On-Track to Deliver Industry Leading Growth

Outlook We continue to value the stock at 51x on Q2FY26E to Q1FY27E EPS of INR 121 to arrive at a TP of INR 6,140 with a potential upside of ~19%.

ICICI Securities Limited

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, ICICI Prudential Life, Persistent Systems, Supreme Industries

Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance (BAF) reported a mixed set of earnings with steady loan growth (+29% YoY) and improving operating efficiency offset by...

HDFC Securities

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