Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

The first quarter of 2020 was a challenging one for Global Emerging Market active managers. <ul>
<li>Active GEM fund Q1 Returns -25.05% on average vs -23.7% for the benchmark.</li>
<li>1 in 3 underperformed on the quarter.</li>
<li>Aggressive Growth strategies beat Value by 4.5% on average.</li>
<li>China the key driver of underperformance.</li>
<li>Underweights in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> proved costly.</li>
</ul>

The first quarter of 2020 was a challenging one for Global Emerging Market active managers. 
Active GEM fund Q1 Returns -25.05% on average vs -23.7% for the benchmark.
1 in 3 underperformed on the quarter.
Aggressive Growth strategies beat Value by 4.5% on average.
China the key driver of underperformance.
Underweights in Tencent Holdings (700 HK) and Alibaba Group (BABA US) proved costly.


GEM Fund Q1 2020 Performance Review: Active Funds Suffer as China Outperforms

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Towards the end of 2018 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2840" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2840:1">Modec Inc (6269 JP)</a>'s share price dropped 46.5% as the price of crude oil also cratered, falling 44.4% . Since that plunge, the stock price has rebounded 53.9% as the company posted excellent results at 4Q and guidance, while conservative, was for continued healthy earnings.Having visited the company today, we believe earnings should continue to be strong and actually strengthen over the next few years with MODEC likely to start running into capacity constraints over the course of this year.

Towards the end of 2018 Modec Inc (6269 JP)'s share price dropped 46.5% as the price of crude oil also cratered, falling 44.4% . Since that plunge, the stock price has rebounded 53.9% as the company posted excellent results at 4Q and guidance, while conservative, was for continued healthy earnings.Having visited the company today, we believe earnings should continue to be strong and actually strengthen over the next few years with MODEC likely to start running into capacity constraints over the course of this year.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

This report highlights actionable themes across the EM universe, including: bullish inflections in the Russian and Thai markets, and a pullback opportunity in India's SENSEX.  We also highlight actionable setups in MSCI EM Energy and Materials sectors and within Taiwanese Financials/Banks.  Finally we uncover a number of attractive bottoms-up opportunities, sorted by sector and market-cap.

This report highlights actionable themes across the EM universe, including: bullish inflections in the Russian and Thai markets, and a pullback opportunity in India's SENSEX.  We also highlight actionable setups in MSCI EM Energy and Materials sectors and within Taiwanese Financials/Banks.  Finally we uncover a number of attractive bottoms-up opportunities, sorted by sector and market-cap.

EM Strategy: Russia and Thailand Bullishly Inflecting; Pullback Opportunity in India

The recent successful test of support at the 200-day moving average has paved the way for a meaningful bounce higher on the S&amp;P 500. Given this bounce, we have become incrementally more bullish. In today’s report we highlight the bullish implications of the recent move higher for the broad market as well as attractive and actionable groups within the Energy Sector: EN-02 Oil &amp; Gas, Global, Large-Cap, EN-08 Oil and Gas E&amp;P, Domestic, Large-Cap, and EN-10 Oil and Gas E&amp;P, Domestic Small-Cap.

The recent successful test of support at the 200-day moving average has paved the way for a meaningful bounce higher on the S&amp;P 500. Given this bounce, we have become incrementally more bullish. In today’s report we highlight the bullish implications of the recent move higher for the broad market as well as attractive and actionable groups within the Energy Sector: EN-02 Oil &amp; Gas, Global, Large-Cap, EN-08 Oil and Gas E&amp;P, Domestic, Large-Cap, and EN-10 Oil and Gas E&amp;P, Domestic Small-Cap.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Energy Stocks

EM equities remain long-term leadership despite giving up some ground over the last month to developed markets. Given the intact relative strength uptrend, we reiterate our overweight EM recommendation. Energy and Health Care stocks are outperforming and remain attractive. Technology is consolidating and we would use recent weakness as a buying opportunity. Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

EM equities remain long-term leadership despite giving up some ground over the last month to developed markets. Given the intact relative strength uptrend, we reiterate our overweight EM recommendation. Energy and Health Care stocks are outperforming and remain attractive. Technology is consolidating and we would use recent weakness as a buying opportunity. Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

EM Strategy: Overweight Technology, Energy, and Health Care.

Brazil

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores for and produces oil and natural gas.  The Company refines, markets, and supplies oil products.  Petrobras operates oil tankers, distribution pipelines, marine, river and lake terminals, thermal power plants, fertilizer plants, and petrochemical units.  The Company operates in South America and elsewhere around the world.

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Petroleo Brasileiro (PETR4 BZ)

GEM Fund Q1 2020 Performance Review: Active Funds Suffer as China Outperforms

The first quarter of 2020 was a challenging one for Global Emerging Market active managers. Active GEM fund Q1 Returns -25.05% on average vs...

Steven Holden

MODEC: Add

Towards the end of 2018 Modec Inc (6269 JP)'s share price dropped 46.5% as the price of crude oil also cratered, falling 44.4% . Since that plunge,...

Mio Kato

EM Strategy: Russia and Thailand Bullishly Inflecting; Pullback Opportunity in India

This report highlights actionable themes across the EM universe, including: bullish inflections in the Russian and Thai markets, and a pullback...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Energy Stocks

The recent successful test of support at the 200-day moving average has paved the way for a meaningful bounce higher on the S&P 500. Given this...

Vermilion Research

EM Strategy: Overweight Technology, Energy, and Health Care.

EM equities remain long-term leadership despite giving up some ground over the last month to developed markets. Given the intact relative strength...

Vermilion Research

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