EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Oil markets continue to be turgid as producers look to make up lower prices by increased volume.&nbsp;This has led to markets that are severely overstretched versus their fundamentals.If we look at the oil futures curve structure and elements likely to impact it, oil looks like it may surprise to the upside much as it has surprised to the downside.This piece summarises the bull case for a complex topic.

Oil markets continue to be turgid as producers look to make up lower prices by increased volume.&nbsp;This has led to markets that are severely overstretched versus their fundamentals.If we look at the oil futures curve structure and elements likely to impact it, oil looks like it may surprise to the upside much as it has surprised to the downside.This piece summarises the bull case for a complex topic.

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus., Carbon Tracker Initiative

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus.

Carbon Tracker and Planet Tracker - part of the Tracker Group - are award-winning, non-profit financial think tanks focused on the climate–nature nexus.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Leapfrog to Electric delivers a simple conclusion: Brazil’s ICE‑dependent transport system is an economic liability—and the upside from a rapid BEV transition dwarfs the status quo.</li><li>This analysis shows that sticking with petrol and diesel vehicles exposes Brazil to rising import bills, volatile global oil markets, mounting health burdens, and growing stranded‑asset risks in refining just as global fuel demand declines through the 2030s.</li><li>Electrification isn’t just cleaner—it is structurally cheaper, strategically smarter, and financially unavoidable.</li></ul>

Leapfrog to Electric delivers a simple conclusion: Brazil’s ICE‑dependent transport system is an economic liability—and the upside from a rapid BEV transition dwarfs the status quo.This analysis shows that sticking with petrol and diesel vehicles exposes Brazil to rising import bills, volatile global oil markets, mounting health burdens, and growing stranded‑asset risks in refining just as global fuel demand declines through the 2030s.Electrification isn’t just cleaner—it is structurally cheaper, strategically smarter, and financially unavoidable.

Energy Transition: Brazil - Leapfrog to Electric

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

<ul><li>Petrobras ADR (PBR) is a long-term investment opportunity for patient income-driven investors</li><li>Petrobras is one of the world's largest oil companies with a market capitalization of $89 billion and total hydrocarbon production of 2.8MMbpd</li><li>Despite facing challenges over the past 20 years, including the Car Wash scandal, Petrobras has implemented changes and reforms, making it a potentially attractive investment for the future</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Petrobras ADR (PBR) is a long-term investment opportunity for patient income-driven investorsPetrobras is one of the world's largest oil companies with a market capitalization of $89 billion and total hydrocarbon production of 2.8MMbpdDespite facing challenges over the past 20 years, including the Car Wash scandal, Petrobras has implemented changes and reforms, making it a potentially attractive investment for the futureThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Petroleo Brasileiro Sa- Petr (PBR) - Monday, Sep 16, 2024

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.</li>
<li>Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX</li>
</ul>


Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.
Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.
Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX


Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/nameson-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Nameson Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Sunny Optical Technology Group</a></li><li><a href='/entities/genting-bhd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Genting Bhd</a></li><li><a href='/entities/shui-on-land-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Shui On Land</a></li><li><a href='/entities/health-and-happiness-h-h-int' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Health And Happiness (H&H)</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Nameson HoldingsSunny Optical Technology GroupGenting BhdShui On LandHealth And Happiness (H&H)and more...

Brazil

Petrobras is a Brazilian multinational corporation primarily engaged in the oil and gas industry, focusing on exploration, production, refining, and distribution activities. The company also operates in natural gas, petrochemicals, fertilizers, and electric power generation. Petrobras was founded on October 3, 1953, and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

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Petrobras (PBR US)

How Oil Can Head over $100 by 2017

Oil markets continue to be turgid as producers look to make up lower prices by increased volume. This has led to markets that are severely...

Emad Mostaque

Energy Transition: Brazil - Leapfrog to Electric

Leapfrog to Electric delivers a simple conclusion: Brazil’s ICE‑dependent transport system is an economic liability—and the upside from a rapid...

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Petroleo Brasileiro Sa- Petr (PBR) - Monday, Sep 16, 2024

Petrobras is one of the world's largest oil companies with a market capitalization of $89 billion and total hydrocarbon production of 2.8MMbpd

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas globally. Constructive if supports hold: $98-99 on...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Wrap - 21 Jul 2023

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

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