Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7580-7629 holds.</li>
<li>At the same time, if SPX breaks below 7580 we would look for a 7-10% peak-to-trough decline, while being mindful of support at 7250-7300.</li>
<li>A.I. areas were hit hard yesterday following the "pacing the frontier" developments over the weekend, and we believe caution is warranted on semiconductors, memory, neoclouds, and photonics names.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7580-7629 holds.
At the same time, if SPX breaks below 7580 we would look for a 7-10% peak-to-trough decline, while being mindful of support at 7250-7300.
A.I. areas were hit hard yesterday following the "pacing the frontier" developments over the weekend, and we believe caution is warranted on semiconductors, memory, neoclouds, and photonics names.


Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.</li>
<li>The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.</li>
<li>The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a>  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.
The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.
The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.


Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold.</li>
<li>We are not fighting the bullish trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring potential concerns--notably...</li>
<li>...global defensives Staples (KXI-US), Utilities (JXI-US), RealEstate (RWO-US) at 5+ month RS highs, U.S. dollar (DXY) holding above $96.40, crude oil prices bottoming, gasoline (UGA) breaking out from 3.5+year downtrend.</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold.
We are not fighting the bullish trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring potential concerns--notably...
...global defensives Staples (KXI-US), Utilities (JXI-US), RealEstate (RWO-US) at 5+ month RS highs, U.S. dollar (DXY) holding above $96.40, crude oil prices bottoming, gasoline (UGA) breaking out from 3.5+year downtrend.


Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, Transports

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus., Carbon Tracker Initiative

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus.

Carbon Tracker and Planet Tracker - part of the Tracker Group - are award-winning, non-profit financial think tanks focused on the climate–nature nexus.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Leapfrog to Electric delivers a simple conclusion:Accelerated battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption in Colombia could save around US$40 billion in cumulative fossil fuel import costs by 2050, while also reducing pollution-related health costs and avoiding climate-related economic damage.</li><li>The report finds that, under a business-as-usual pathway, Colombia’s cumulative road transport fuel import bill could reach US$226bn by 2050.</li><li>Electrification isn’t just cleaner—it is structurally cheaper, strategically smarter, and financially unavoidable.</li></ul>

Leapfrog to Electric delivers a simple conclusion:Accelerated battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption in Colombia could save around US$40 billion in cumulative fossil fuel import costs by 2050, while also reducing pollution-related health costs and avoiding climate-related economic damage.The report finds that, under a business-as-usual pathway, Colombia’s cumulative road transport fuel import bill could reach US$226bn by 2050.Electrification isn’t just cleaner—it is structurally cheaper, strategically smarter, and financially unavoidable.

Energy Transition: Colombia - Leapfrog to Electric

<ul>
<li>Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.</li>
<li>A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology</li>
</ul>


Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.
A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.
Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology


MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

Brazil

Petrobras is a Brazilian multinational corporation primarily engaged in the oil and gas industry, focusing on exploration, production, refining, and distribution activities. The company also operates in natural gas, petrochemicals, fertilizers, and electric power generation. Petrobras was founded on October 3, 1953, and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

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Petrobras (PBR US)

Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM

Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM, PBR, REPYY, EC, YPF, UGP, GPRK, GTE, COP, EOG,...

Vermilion Research

Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

Thursday's International Compass: Stay Defensive. Actionable Global Sectors: Energy, Materials, Transportation, Communications, Utilities, and...

Vermilion Research

Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, Transports

Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, and Transports. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets $EEM,...

Vermilion Research

Energy Transition: Colombia - Leapfrog to Electric

Leapfrog to Electric delivers a simple conclusion:Accelerated battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption in Colombia could save around US$40 billion...

Carbon Tracker Initiative

MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

MSCI ACWI, EURO $STOXX 50, $TOPIX Remain Bullish. $ACWI holding above short-term support at $102 (last week's breakout level), though we remain...

Vermilion Research

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