Research from ACF Equity Research, ACF Equity Research

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Research from ACF Equity Research

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Lung Cancer Cough (LCC) is an under-served, perhaps unserved therapeutic subsegment of the Lung Cancer/Oncology market.</li><li>57-65% of early diagnosis lung cancer patients suffer from LCC, it is a highly debilitating condition.</li><li>The US lung cancer therapeutics market consensus values range from ~USD 29.9bn in 2023 to ~USD 71.3bn in 2034, suggesting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2% over our 10 year forecast period.</li></ul>

Lung Cancer Cough (LCC) is an under-served, perhaps unserved therapeutic subsegment of the Lung Cancer/Oncology market.57-65% of early diagnosis lung cancer patients suffer from LCC, it is a highly debilitating condition.The US lung cancer therapeutics market consensus values range from ~USD 29.9bn in 2023 to ~USD 71.3bn in 2034, suggesting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2% over our 10 year forecast period.

Merus NV - ACF Thematic Oncology Lung Cancer Cough LCC 25042025

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>EMA’s human medicines committee (CHMP) recommended sixteen medicines for approval at its April 2025 meeting. CHMP also adopted positive opinion for nine biosimilar medicines.</li>
<li>Among the new medicines, Vertex’s triple combination cystic fibrosis drug Alyftrek, Amgen’s Thyroid eye disease drug Tepezza, and Jazz Pharmaceutical’s billiary tract cancer drug Ziihera have potential to become blockbusters.</li>
<li>The Agency has recommended the refusal of the marketing authorization for Eli Lilly’s Alzheimer’s Disease drug Kisunla. Eli Lilly may ask for a re-examination of the opinion within 15 days.</li>
</ul>


EMA’s human medicines committee (CHMP) recommended sixteen medicines for approval at its April 2025 meeting. CHMP also adopted positive opinion for nine biosimilar medicines.
Among the new medicines, Vertex’s triple combination cystic fibrosis drug Alyftrek, Amgen’s Thyroid eye disease drug Tepezza, and Jazz Pharmaceutical’s billiary tract cancer drug Ziihera have potential to become blockbusters.
The Agency has recommended the refusal of the marketing authorization for Eli Lilly’s Alzheimer’s Disease drug Kisunla. Eli Lilly may ask for a re-examination of the opinion within 15 days.


CHMP Meeting Update April 2025: Sixteen New Medicines Recommended For Approval

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

<ul><li>In a week of bad industry news, biopharma surprisingly held onto its bounce from recent two-year lows.</li><li>With pharma tariffs now expected by June and federal health agencies’ prospects looking worse, we may be close to peak negativity, but too much uncertainty remains for any confidence in a bottom.</li><li>In obesity, LLY had a win for an oral GLP-1, while PFE lost, affecting NVO, GPCR, VKTX, AMGN, MTSR, ALT, and TERN. VERV gained on CVD data and BMY’s heart drug failed, affecting CYTK and EWTX, while MURA stopped development.</li></ul>

In a week of bad industry news, biopharma surprisingly held onto its bounce from recent two-year lows.With pharma tariffs now expected by June and federal health agencies’ prospects looking worse, we may be close to peak negativity, but too much uncertainty remains for any confidence in a bottom.In obesity, LLY had a win for an oral GLP-1, while PFE lost, affecting NVO, GPCR, VKTX, AMGN, MTSR, ALT, and TERN. VERV gained on CVD data and BMY’s heart drug failed, affecting CYTK and EWTX, while MURA stopped development.

Biopharma Week in Review Shrugging Off Constant Bad News; LLY Winning Obesity Drug Race

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eli-lilly-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19419:1" rel="noopener">Eli Lilly &amp; Co (LLY US)</a> has recently announced positive topline Phase 3 results for orforglipron, the GLP 1 RA drug candidate they licensed from Chugai Pharma in 2018.</li>
<li>At the top dose, patients lost 7.3 kg of the 90.2 kg they weighed at the start of the trial, bettering Ozempic’s trial results.</li>
<li>Once approved and commercialized, orforglipron should provide a long-term revenue visibility for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a> through milestone and royalty receipts from Lilly.</li>
</ul>



Eli Lilly &amp; Co (LLY US) has recently announced positive topline Phase 3 results for orforglipron, the GLP 1 RA drug candidate they licensed from Chugai Pharma in 2018.
At the top dose, patients lost 7.3 kg of the 90.2 kg they weighed at the start of the trial, bettering Ozempic’s trial results.
Once approved and commercialized, orforglipron should provide a long-term revenue visibility for Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) through milestone and royalty receipts from Lilly.


Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Positive Phase 3 Results Of Orforglipron Augurs Well

<ul><li>Biopharma lagged as Trump’s pending pharma tariffs loom.</li><li>The 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs was a short-lived reprieve for biopharma, as Trump later clarified pharma tariffs were not part of the pause.</li><li>After a second unvaccinated child died from measles (three deaths total), RFK Jr. endorsed the vaccine as the most effective way of prevention. </li></ul>

Biopharma lagged as Trump’s pending pharma tariffs loom.The 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs was a short-lived reprieve for biopharma, as Trump later clarified pharma tariffs were not part of the pause.After a second unvaccinated child died from measles (three deaths total), RFK Jr. endorsed the vaccine as the most effective way of prevention. 

Biopharma Week in Review : Pharma Tariffs Overhang; Worrying Vaccine Comments from RFK Jr.

United States

Pfizer Inc. operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company offers medicines, vaccines, medical devices, and consumer healthcare products for oncology, inflammation, cardiovascular, and other therapeutic areas. Pfizer serves customers worldwide.

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Pfizer (PFE UN)

Merus NV - ACF Thematic Oncology Lung Cancer Cough LCC 25042025

Lung Cancer Cough (LCC) is an under-served, perhaps unserved therapeutic subsegment of the Lung Cancer/Oncology market. 57-65% of early diagnosis...

ACF Equity Research

CHMP Meeting Update April 2025: Sixteen New Medicines Recommended For Approval

Among the new medicines, Vertex’s triple combination CF drug Alyftrek, Amgen’s Thyroid eye disease drug Tepezza, and Jazz Pharmaceutical’s cancer...

Tina Banerjee

Biopharma Week in Review Shrugging Off Constant Bad News; LLY Winning Obesity Drug Race

With pharma tariffs now expected by June and federal health agencies’ prospects looking worse, we may be close to peak negativity, but too much...

Water Tower Research

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Positive Phase 3 Results Of Orforglipron Augurs Well

Eli Lilly announces positive Phase 3 results for orforglipron, a GLP-1 drug candidate licensed from Chugai, showing promising weight loss results...

Tina Banerjee

Biopharma Week in Review : Pharma Tariffs Overhang; Worrying Vaccine Comments from RFK Jr.

The 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs was a short-lived reprieve for biopharma, as Trump later clarified pharma tariffs were not part of the pa

Water Tower Research

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Merus NV - ACF Thematic Oncology Lung Cancer Cough LCC 25042025

Lung Cancer Cough (LCC) is an under-served, perhaps unserved therapeutic subsegment of the Lung Cancer/Oncology market. 57-65% of early diagnosis...

ACF Equity Research

CHMP Meeting Update April 2025: Sixteen New Medicines Recommended For Approval

Among the new medicines, Vertex’s triple combination CF drug Alyftrek, Amgen’s Thyroid eye disease drug Tepezza, and Jazz Pharmaceutical’s cancer...

Tina Banerjee

Biopharma Week in Review Shrugging Off Constant Bad News; LLY Winning Obesity Drug Race

With pharma tariffs now expected by June and federal health agencies’ prospects looking worse, we may be close to peak negativity, but too much...

Water Tower Research

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Positive Phase 3 Results Of Orforglipron Augurs Well

​Eli Lilly announces positive Phase 3 results for orforglipron, a GLP-1 drug candidate licensed from Chugai, showing promising weight loss results...

Tina Banerjee

Biopharma Week in Review : Pharma Tariffs Overhang; Worrying Vaccine Comments from RFK Jr.

The 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs was a short-lived reprieve for biopharma, as Trump later clarified pharma tariffs were not part of the pa

Water Tower Research

Eli Lilly announces positive Phase 3 results for orforglipron, a GLP-1 drug candidate licensed from Chugai, showing promising weight loss results...