Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>PhilEnergy IPO will start trading this Friday on 14 July. We believe that PhilEnergy's share price will surge higher on the first day of trading.</li>
<li>We believe PhilEnergy's shares could OVERSHOOT by more than 200% versus the IPO price on the first day of trading, which would be more than 102,00 won or more.</li>
<li>Our trading strategy on PhilEnergy on the first day of trading would be to take partial profits (30-50%) if its price overshoots higher (by 200% or more than IPO price).</li>
</ul>


PhilEnergy IPO will start trading this Friday on 14 July. We believe that PhilEnergy's share price will surge higher on the first day of trading.
We believe PhilEnergy's shares could OVERSHOOT by more than 200% versus the IPO price on the first day of trading, which would be more than 102,00 won or more.
Our trading strategy on PhilEnergy on the first day of trading would be to take partial profits (30-50%) if its price overshoots higher (by 200% or more than IPO price).


PhilEnergy IPO: Trading Strategy on the First Day of Trading

<ul>
<li>PhilEnergy's IPO price has been determined a 34,000 won. The company will raise 95.6 billion won in this IPO offering. </li>
<li>A total of 1,955 institutional investors participated in the IPO offering with a competition demand ratio of 1,812 to 1. </li>
<li>Given the exceptional book building results, it is highly likely that PhilEnergy will have a strong price performance once it starts trading. </li>
</ul>


PhilEnergy's IPO price has been determined a 34,000 won. The company will raise 95.6 billion won in this IPO offering. 
A total of 1,955 institutional investors participated in the IPO offering with a competition demand ratio of 1,812 to 1. 
Given the exceptional book building results, it is highly likely that PhilEnergy will have a strong price performance once it starts trading. 


PhilEnergy IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of PhilEnergy is target price of 41,545 won per share, which represents 38% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of 30,000 won. </li>
<li>We believe a premium valuation multiple to the comps (20%) is appropriate due to PhilEnergy's higher sales growth rate and higher ROE than the comps in 2021 to 2023.</li>
<li>We estimate the company to generate sales of 312.5 billion won in 2023 (up 64.7% YoY) and 361.5 billion won (up 15.7% YoY) in 2024.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of PhilEnergy is target price of 41,545 won per share, which represents 38% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of 30,000 won. 
We believe a premium valuation multiple to the comps (20%) is appropriate due to PhilEnergy's higher sales growth rate and higher ROE than the comps in 2021 to 2023.
We estimate the company to generate sales of 312.5 billion won in 2023 (up 64.7% YoY) and 361.5 billion won (up 15.7% YoY) in 2024.


Douglas Research Advisory

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In this analysis, we provide a back testing analysis of the end of mandatory lock-up periods monthly data in Korea in the past six months.</li>
<li>All in all, this end of mandatory lock-up period monthly data continues to provide some alpha generating results.</li>
<li>In the past six months, they have tended to work better in periods when KOSPI declines rather than in periods when KOSPI rises. </li>
</ul>


In this analysis, we provide a back testing analysis of the end of mandatory lock-up periods monthly data in Korea in the past six months.
All in all, this end of mandatory lock-up period monthly data continues to provide some alpha generating results.
In the past six months, they have tended to work better in periods when KOSPI declines rather than in periods when KOSPI rises. 


Back Testing the End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods Monthly Data in Korea

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-bm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27873:1" rel="noopener">Ecopro BM (247540 KS)</a>'s Board has approved the delisting of the stock from the KOSDAQ market and to list on the KOSPI market. The shareholder meeting is on 26 March. </li>
<li>Historically, the KRX has taken an average of 64 days from application to approve the listing to transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-bm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27873:1" rel="noopener">Ecopro BM (247540 KS)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a> on its last trading day and inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 Index</a> could take place in September.</li>
</ul>



Ecopro BM (247540 KS)'s Board has approved the delisting of the stock from the KOSDAQ market and to list on the KOSPI market. The shareholder meeting is on 26 March. 
Historically, the KRX has taken an average of 64 days from application to approve the listing to transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market.

Ecopro BM (247540 KS) will be deleted from the KOSDAQ 150 Index on its last trading day and inclusion in the KOSPI 200 Index could take place in September.


Ecopro BM (247540 KS): Index Impact of KOSDAQ to KOSPI Transfer

South Korea

Philenergy Co., Ltd. operates battery manufacturing businesses. The Company produces secondary batteries, fuel cells, and other products. Philenergy conducts businesses in Asia.

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PhilEnergy (378340 KS)

PhilEnergy IPO: Trading Strategy on the First Day of Trading

PhilEnergy IPO will start trading this Friday on 14 July. We believe that PhilEnergy's share price will surge higher on the first day of trading.

Douglas Kim

PhilEnergy IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

PhilEnergy's IPO price has been determined a 34,000 won. Given the exceptional book building results, it is highly likely that PhilEnergy will have...

Douglas Kim

PhilEnergy IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of PhilEnergy IPO is target price of 41,545 won per share, which represents 38% higher than the high end of the IPO price...

Douglas Kim

Back Testing the End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods Monthly Data in Korea

In this analysis, we provide a back testing analysis of the end of mandatory lock-up periods monthly data in Korea in the past six months....

Douglas Kim

Ecopro BM (247540 KS): Index Impact of KOSDAQ to KOSPI Transfer

Ecopro BM's Board has approved the KOSDAQ delisting and KOSPI listing. The shareholder meeting is on 26 March and KRX approval could come mid-May...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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