External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Pakistan listed Consumer sector is currently trading at FY25 PE of 15.3x which is at a discount to its historical 10-year average of 23.1x.</li><li>Segment wise, consumer staple (FMCG) is trading at FY25 PE of 18.6x vs. 10-year average of 28.8x, pharmaceutical is trading at FY25 PE of 20.9x vs. 10-year average PE of 22.3x and consumer discretionary is trading at PE of FY25 9.3x vs. 10-year average PE of 18.3x.</li><li>Sector witnessed 5-year and 10-years sales/profit CAGR of 21%/32% and 14%/14% respectively.</li></ul>

Pakistan listed Consumer sector is currently trading at FY25 PE of 15.3x which is at a discount to its historical 10-year average of 23.1x.Segment wise, consumer staple (FMCG) is trading at FY25 PE of 18.6x vs. 10-year average of 28.8x, pharmaceutical is trading at FY25 PE of 20.9x vs. 10-year average PE of 22.3x and consumer discretionary is trading at PE of FY25 9.3x vs. 10-year average PE of 18.3x.Sector witnessed 5-year and 10-years sales/profit CAGR of 21%/32% and 14%/14% respectively.

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,405/1,411 points (10-day and 25-day EMA) and the support at 1,390/1,385 points, based on the short-term uptrend reversal pattern.</li><li>KTX anticipates that this meeting's outcome could mark the first instance of the MPC opting to maintain the policy interest rate, breaking a trend of eight consecutive hikes.</li><li>The consensus expects the second reading of US 3Q23E GDP growth to mark at +4.9% QoQ (vs. 2Q23 at +2.1% QoQ); and the 4Q23E GDP growth is still likely to show a positive surprise, based on the Atlanta Fed's forecast calling for a healthy reading of +2.1% QoQ, which is much higher than the consensus forecast of +0.8% QoQ.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,405/1,411 points (10-day and 25-day EMA) and the support at 1,390/1,385 points, based on the short-term uptrend reversal pattern.KTX anticipates that this meeting's outcome could mark the first instance of the MPC opting to maintain the policy interest rate, breaking a trend of eight consecutive hikes.The consensus expects the second reading of US 3Q23E GDP growth to mark at +4.9% QoQ (vs. 2Q23 at +2.1% QoQ); and the 4Q23E GDP growth is still likely to show a positive surprise, based on the Atlanta Fed's forecast calling for a healthy reading of +2.1% QoQ, which is much higher than the consensus forecast of +0.8% QoQ.

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move up, with the resistance at 1,540 points (75-day EMA)/1,550 points and the support at 1,527/1,515 points (25-day/10-day EMA).</li><li>On a positive note, large banks are projected to report higher profits owing to improving NIM (as the interest rate uptrend has boosted loan yields), overall loan growth (thanks to recovering economic activities, like retail and corporate loans), and higher fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL), which should help offset increases in spending and ECL provision expenses.</li><li>On the political front, there is some positive news as more than half of the total seats in parliament have expressed the view that Khun Pita cannot be nominated as the prime minister candidate twice after failing in the first vote.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move up, with the resistance at 1,540 points (75-day EMA)/1,550 points and the support at 1,527/1,515 points (25-day/10-day EMA).On a positive note, large banks are projected to report higher profits owing to improving NIM (as the interest rate uptrend has boosted loan yields), overall loan growth (thanks to recovering economic activities, like retail and corporate loans), and higher fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL), which should help offset increases in spending and ECL provision expenses.On the political front, there is some positive news as more than half of the total seats in parliament have expressed the view that Khun Pita cannot be nominated as the prime minister candidate twice after failing in the first vote.

Waiting for Thai and US Corporate Earnings

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,280/1,273 points and the resistance at 1,298/1,305 points.</li><li>The recommended investment strategy is to sell on rallies until a new technical buy signal emerges.</li><li>KTX expects Thailand's inflation to continue recovering, leading to the lowest real rate in Asia and increasing the likelihood of the MPC maintaining interest rates.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,280/1,273 points and the resistance at 1,298/1,305 points.The recommended investment strategy is to sell on rallies until a new technical buy signal emerges.KTX expects Thailand's inflation to continue recovering, leading to the lowest real rate in Asia and increasing the likelihood of the MPC maintaining interest rates.

<ul><li>Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,409 points (75-day EMA)/1,416 points and the support at 1,390 points/1,386 points (25-day EMA).</li><li>KTX anticipates that the MPC will maintain the policy interest rate while awaiting clarity on the Digital Wallet scheme.</li><li>We recommend stocks that will benefit from the depreciation of the baht or the reduction of interest rates: ICHI, SAPPE and TIDLOR.</li></ul>

Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,409 points (75-day EMA)/1,416 points and the support at 1,390 points/1,386 points (25-day EMA).KTX anticipates that the MPC will maintain the policy interest rate while awaiting clarity on the Digital Wallet scheme.We recommend stocks that will benefit from the depreciation of the baht or the reduction of interest rates: ICHI, SAPPE and TIDLOR.

United States

Philip Morris International Inc., through its subsidiaries, affiliates and their licensees, produces, sells, distributes, and markets a wide range of branded cigarettes and tobacco products in markets outside of the United States of America.  The Company's portfolio comprises both international and local brands.

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Philip Morris International (PM US)

Pakistan Listed Consumer Comp Sheet

Pakistan listed Consumer sector is currently trading at FY25 PE of 15.3x which is at a discount to its historical 10-year average of...

Topline Securities

Today's Dominant Ideas

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,405/1,411 points (10-day and 25-day EMA) and the support at...

Krungthai XSpring

Waiting for Thai and US Corporate Earnings

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move up, with the resistance at 1,540 points (75-day EMA)/1,550 points and the support at 1,527/1,515...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng.

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,280/1,273 points and the resistance at...

Krungthai XSpring

Keep A Close Watch On The MPC Meeting

Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,409 points (75-day EMA)/1,416 points and the support at 1,390...

Krungthai XSpring

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