Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

In this note, we compare and contrast the correction in EM currencies in the current reflationary scare with a similar episode in 2013.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

In this note, we compare and contrast the correction in EM currencies in the current reflationary scare with a similar episode in 2013.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

FX Dashboard: Taper Tantrum Vs Current Reflationary Scare – Part 1

In this note, we discuss the reasons behind the stability in EM currencies and whether it can continue.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

In this note, we discuss the reasons behind the stability in EM currencies and whether it can continue.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

FX Dashboard: EM FX Volatility Remains Low

In this note, we discuss the reasons behind the recent lag of the Colombian peso and argue that it may continue to underperform in the near term.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

In this note, we discuss the reasons behind the recent lag of the Colombian peso and argue that it may continue to underperform in the near term.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

FX Dashboard: Colombian Peso to Continue Underperforming

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nicholas Chia

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>There are 3 reasons why remittances, the lifeblood of the Philippine economy, will surprise on the upside in 2021 (2021e: +6%; BSP forecast: +4%), aided by the lifting of lockdowns across the globe, more stimulus in the developed world, and the prospect of a weaker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-peso" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24094:1" rel="noopener">PHP (USDPHP CURNCY)</a>.</li>
<li>The Duterte administration approved the creation of asset management companies that would help already-well-fortified banks offload distressed assets and boost credit growth, which contracted for the first time in more than a decade amid tighter lending standards.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 reasons why remittances, the lifeblood of the Philippine economy, will surprise on the upside in 2021 (2021e: +6%; BSP forecast: +4%), aided by the lifting of lockdowns across the globe, more stimulus in the developed world, and the prospect of a weaker PHP (USDPHP CURNCY).
The Duterte administration approved the creation of asset management companies that would help already-well-fortified banks offload distressed assets and boost credit growth, which contracted for the first time in more than a decade amid tighter lending standards.


The Philippines: 3 Reasons Why Remittances Will Surprise On The Upside

Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

In the past nine weeks major currencies and global equity markets have traded broadly in line with our expectations. The US Dollar has traded in a very narrow range, confounding consistently bearish market expectations. Similarly, most emerging Asian currencies have barely moved, pointing to the ability and willingness of Asian central bank to intervene in FX markets in a bid to manage both the volatility and directionality of their currencies. Conversely, emerging currencies, particularly in Latin America, have been prone to sharp pull-backs.Stretched currency valuations and still very weak global economic growth in January – which tallies with our forecast – has likely been a driver of currencies’ performance. In the past five weeks the inverse correlation between the Dollar and S&amp;P 500 and between the Dollar and the steepness of the US Treasury yield curve has broken down.Our take is that the broad-based diversification out of Dollars, driven by buoyant global risk appetite and market concerns about the Dollar’s real carry, has stalled and slightly reversed. We suspect that central banks and sovereign wealth funds may have re-focussed on domestic factors, which has in turn led to a rotation between other reserve currencies. This includes a rotation out of Euros and move into Sterling and a rotation out of the safe haven Swiss Franc and in particular Japanese Yen into commodity reserve currencies – namely the Canadian and Australian Dollars and Norwegian Krone – and New Zealand Dollar. These four currencies’ NEERs are now near the top end of their three-month ranges. In each case specific drivers have been in play, “in our view. Our analysis suggests that the Norwegian Krone may still be “cheap” relative to the current price of Brent crude oil.Figure 8 suggests that a rotation in and out of other (EM) currencies which were 1-2 months ago trading at the extremes of their ranges may have also taken place.The Dollar NEER has weakened about 0.9% since 4th February and its inverse correlation with the S&amp;P 500 (+1.2%) has re-established itself. We think this is a short-term correction, with another prolonged Dollar downtrend still a couple of months away.

In the past nine weeks major currencies and global equity markets have traded broadly in line with our expectations. The US Dollar has traded in a very narrow range, confounding consistently bearish market expectations. Similarly, most emerging Asian currencies have barely moved, pointing to the ability and willingness of Asian central bank to intervene in FX markets in a bid to manage both the volatility and directionality of their currencies. Conversely, emerging currencies, particularly in Latin America, have been prone to sharp pull-backs.Stretched currency valuations and still very weak global economic growth in January – which tallies with our forecast – has likely been a driver of currencies’ performance. In the past five weeks the inverse correlation between the Dollar and S&amp;P 500 and between the Dollar and the steepness of the US Treasury yield curve has broken down.Our take is that the broad-based diversification out of Dollars, driven by buoyant global risk appetite and market concerns about the Dollar’s real carry, has stalled and slightly reversed. We suspect that central banks and sovereign wealth funds may have re-focussed on domestic factors, which has in turn led to a rotation between other reserve currencies. This includes a rotation out of Euros and move into Sterling and a rotation out of the safe haven Swiss Franc and in particular Japanese Yen into commodity reserve currencies – namely the Canadian and Australian Dollars and Norwegian Krone – and New Zealand Dollar. These four currencies’ NEERs are now near the top end of their three-month ranges. In each case specific drivers have been in play, “in our view. Our analysis suggests that the Norwegian Krone may still be “cheap” relative to the current price of Brent crude oil.Figure 8 suggests that a rotation in and out of other (EM) currencies which were 1-2 months ago trading at the extremes of their ranges may have also taken place.The Dollar NEER has weakened about 0.9% since 4th February and its inverse correlation with the S&amp;P 500 (+1.2%) has re-established itself. We think this is a short-term correction, with another prolonged Dollar downtrend still a couple of months away.

Dollar’s Recent Weakness – Blip, Not New Trend

Philippines

The Philippine peso is the official currency of The Republic of the Philippines. 

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FX Dashboard: Taper Tantrum Vs Current Reflationary Scare – Part 1

Attached is our daily FX Dashboard that helps identify dislocations among EM currencies. In this note, we compare the correction this year in EM...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: EM FX Volatility Remains Low

Attached is our daily FX Dashboard that helps identify dislocations among EM currencies. In this note, we discuss the reasons behind the stability...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Colombian Peso to Continue Underperforming

Attached is our daily FX Dashboard that helps identify dislocations among EM currencies. In this note, we discuss Colombian peso's recent lag and...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

The Philippines: 3 Reasons Why Remittances Will Surprise On The Upside

Remittances are set to revive with a vengeance in 2021, with risks tilted to the upside as tough lockdowns become increasingly unfashionable across...

Nicholas Chia

Dollar’s Recent Weakness – Blip, Not New Trend

In past 2 months range-bound USD and Asian currencies, pull-back prone EM currencies and buoyant equities have performed in line with our forecast....

Olivier Desbarres

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